2016 Postmortem
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This message was self-deleted by its author (DemocratSinceBirth) on Tue Sep 6, 2016, 02:57 PM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.
leebaba1992
(53 posts)I'm addicted to polls and the CNN one is making me get NO work done today
still_one
(92,508 posts)factor in the electoral college, or accurately weight the larger states correctly
The polls to watch are the individual state polls. Specifically the swing state polls, Ohio, Florida, etc.
Those who are voting for Trump are racists. There is no two ways about it. The media has been trying to ignore that reality, but it is what it is.
apcalc
(4,465 posts)BIG numbers - Hillary 49 vs don the con 37. It's right there.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)s-cubed
(1,385 posts)leebaba1992
(53 posts)not very much
uponit7771
(90,371 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Every other poll release from that tracker has > 1000 respondents.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)that it is touted. Negative polling for HRC creates the narrative for corporate media. Most of the touted polls show one thing, they give "White" voters the advantage over the total average and even give them the advantage of lessening the % of other groups polled. That in itself I find misleading.
Fla Dem
(23,881 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)elect Hillary, it is GOTV, if Hillary's supporters thinks this poll or any other poll is electing Hillary, it is not how it works. I heard the CNN this morning and even Hillary says there needs to be a good reason for us to go and vote.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)"if Hillary's supporters thinks this poll or any other poll is electing Hillary, it is not how it works."
A) No one suggested sitting back and thinking the polls are going to elect Hillary.
B) We are all supposed to be Hillary supporters here.
"and even Hillary says there needs to be a good reason for us to go and vote". There are a million good reasons for us to go and vote wouldn't you say?
Your post seems very out of place here.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Something screwy here.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Here is a better time frame for now.
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160826-20160906/type/day
This is actually a really useful tool. It looks like there was a big Trump sample in the last two weeks that is working itself out of the system. Very interested in using this to predict swings in other pools.
As I mentioned over the weekend, it looks like the 3 week Trump cycles are a real thing.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)democrattotheend
(11,607 posts)Other polls have shown the opposite trend. I don't see Reuters on the pollster rating.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)it will make sense.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)still_one
(92,508 posts)the electoral college and other factors.
It is the state polls that are relevant, especially the swing states
democrattotheend
(11,607 posts)State polls are conducted less frequently and often over a longer number of days. So they often lag behind national polls in reflecting recent movement.
mcar
(42,467 posts)BumRushDaShow
(129,979 posts)I found that there was a 36% difference between Clinton and Trump by "lean liberal" likely voters (in favor of Clinton) vs only a 13% difference between the two (in favor of Trump) when looking at "lean conservative" likely voters (both as of Aug 28th).
FBaggins
(26,789 posts)Of course... I had to narrow it down to myself and my five closest friends... but that's still worthy of an all-caps header, right?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Thanks for kicking my thread though.
SMFH
FBaggins
(26,789 posts)Your #30 implies that it was "buying" - so nope.
LAS14
(13,791 posts)barbtries
(28,820 posts)seems like only yesterday i saw a headline claiming the gap had closed to 2 points.
ffr
(22,681 posts)Let's be honest. He's trying to lose and yet 37% will still vote for him? What if we replaced him with a turd? Wouldn't matter would it. So long as it had an R by its name, the alt-right would vote for it.
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)if Joe and Mika will mention this poll in the morning,,,,,, they were all over the CNN poll with Trump ,saying Trump had a 6 pt lead while in fact the poll had Trump with 2 pt lead among likely voters,,,,, Clinton had 2pt lead among registered voters.....this poll carry a bunch of weight in scheme of thangs,,,,,,, do a little happy dance.
piechartking
(617 posts)...is they'd rather talk about the CNN poll over their OWN poll, the NBC poll. How does that happen?
"Yeah we did a poll but it's SO BORING ( Clinton lead is the same) ...HEY! Screw our own poll lets get distracted with our competition's poll..."
What is that?
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)Borrow a paper sack from friend.
Gman
(24,780 posts)And it is exciting as well as relieving of anxiety that she has a firm lead. I just want to say not to get discouraged by comments here debunking your link. It's that everyone is being extremely cautious while remaining optimistic.
martin mike
(82 posts)but suspecting an outlier.
Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)
kestrel91316 This message was self-deleted by its author.
angrychair
(8,754 posts)There are no Hispanic and only 6% are Black based on turning different filters on and off. This poll is trash and heavily weighted in tRump's favor.