Clinton Maintains 2-3 Point Lead Following Republican Convention

[Doctor Jack]

I see our worry warts are here tonight, so instead of letting them take over the conversation, lets look at the facts.

RCP, which is know for having a bit of a pro-Republican slant, currently has Clinton at +2 in the ratings. Huffington Post Polls (which was once Pollster.com) has it as Clinton +3, which is similar to 538. So lets say 2-3 points towards Clinton. Down from her highs of around 6-7 points but we are coming off the Republican convention, so not surprising that she has dropped.

But, lets get historical perspective. We are 2 days removed from the end of the Republican convention. Where were we in 2012 2 days after the Republican convention (Sept 1st 2012)? Obama +0.3. Well that's concerning. I bet he will lose.

And what about 2008? The republican convention was over on September 4th, so where were things on September 6th? Surely Obama had a massive lead because he was doing a lot better in 2008 than Clinton is in 2016, right? Wrong mother fuckers. Obama +2.3.

Nate Silver said that if Trump didn't come off his convention at least tied or even slightly ahead, he was in major Trouble. For the handwringers among us, I want to assure you that Clinton being ahead by 2-3 points is not a Trump lead. You might even call it 5 to 6 points off of a "small Trump lead".

But enough of "facts" and "reality", there is needless stress to engage in.

[DemonGoddess]

1. K&R!

[CrowCityDem]

2. Nate is manipulating the state polls to show Trump ahead, so she's doing just fine.

[RonniePudding]

3. Nate became compromised when he stopped being a salaried NYT employee

When he went out on his own and his income began to directly depend on the clickety clicks of traffic to his website is the day I began to take him less seriously.

Does being in a business dependent on driving traffic to his website make him irrelevant? Not at all. But it doesn't mean he doesn't have a $ angle to play either.

[Journeyman]

5. Yes, I had the same reaction. He's still very good, and his reliability is a driving force . . .

in his success, but he's as dependent on the "horse race" as the major networks, perhaps more so, and it definitely flavors his numbers in the run-up to the final weeks. Come October, he'll be quite reliable, but until then -- unless Clinton begins to pull ahead overwhelmingly -- expect more of a see-saw than a race.

[Thinkingabout]

4. Trump continues to feed the never Trump fever, terrible candidate. Wine him up,

Replace the batteries with everready and he remains a POS.

[world wide wally]

6. And Hillary will get her bump in the polls next week

YES!

What more can they throw at her short of burning her at the stake?

[63splitwindow]

7. The Trump/Pence abomination needs to be historically smashed at the ballot box.

The entire world needs to be shown that the people of the United States of America will NOT countenance that kind of authoritarian SHIT!!!

[Dawson Leery]

8. That whore of Vladimir's must be crushed in the election!!!

[Grassy Knoll]

9. LOL, " The Whore Of Vladmir"?

Fucking Awesome!!!

[SleeplessinSoCal]

10. Michael Moore made a good argument for panic or get involved.

I opt for panic.

[CaptainTruth]

11. Thanks for the perspective! I'm sure Trump is experiencing his "convention bounce."

Hillary just announced a great VP, & she'll get a bounce from the Dem convention. She should come out of the Dem convention at least 6-8 ahead nationally, & that should translate to a 70+ electoral college vote victory.

Given Trump's anti-American insanity he *should* loose the popular vote by at least 15% (20%+ would make me feel better) but as long as we beat him, I'll take it.

[Doodley]

12. Most polls in the averages were before the convention.