a little reassurance for those concerned about the polls

[TheSarcastinator]

Remember this?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx

Deep breath, folks: it's all media hype. Trump's gonna lose in a landslide.

[Mass]

1. I'd say, get a life

At this point, polls are nothing more than a parlor game.

[TheSarcastinator]

3. I understand the anxiety people have about these numbers

the prospect of a Trump presidency is freaking horrific...so saying "get a life" to those concerned seems a bit arrogant and juvenile...but you rock on with your bad self.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Gallup was repeatedly warned that they under sampled minorities.

Remember this is the most hallowed name in polling. Rather than revisit their methodology they doubled down.

[tallahasseedem]

7. I agree with you...

The media can depress turnout and enthusiasm with the push of illegitimate polls. For those of us working to GOTV, it can be a major hurdle.

[ehrnst]

2. Here is On the Media's consumer guide to election polls

[treestar]

8. +1

Good advice

[CanonRay]

4. Nate gives her an 80% chance of winning

and that is only going to go up. The MSM wants a horse race, so expect to see shit polls.

[TeddyR]

6. 538 relies on the polls

And if the polls are off then 538 is off. See the Dem primary in Michigan this year, where I think he gave Hillary like a 95% or higher chance of winning.

Setting that aside, a poll that shows Trump ahead by 7% is probably no more reliable than one showing Hillary ahead by 12% (or whatever the ridiculously high number was from last week). I imagine that Hillary is ahead by about 5% nationally and that it is closer than that in some critical swing states. The debates may be especially important this year because I don't think Trump is going to play well at all to a national audience.

[ehrnst]

9. 538 takes into account several factors before weighing a poll

They weigh for conservative/liberal leaning, and several other factors.

They don't just aggregate, and have a better record than just about everyone else:



http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-model-works/

[redstatebluegirl]

10. Mittens didn't scare me nearly as much as Trumper does.

We decided last night to stop watching any TV news programs. I don't want to see orange man on my screen 24/7.