2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPoll: Clinton leads Trump by 11 points in White House race
Thomson Reuters
CHRIS KAHN
Jun 11th 2016 6:10AM
June 10 (Reuters) - Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 11 points in the U.S. presidential race, showing little change after she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee this week, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday.
Clinton this week defeated party rival Bernie Sanders, 74, in four of six nominating contests, most notably California and New Jersey, and won the endorsements of President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and other party leaders.
http://www.aol.com/article/2016/06/11/poll-clinton-leads-trump-by-11-points-in-white-house-race/21393418/
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)randome
(34,845 posts)And I try to avoid optimism.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]I'm always right. When I'm wrong I admit it.
So then I'm right about being wrong.[/center][/font][hr]
riversedge
(70,205 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)THIS is what we're talking about!
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)and its been put to rest
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)texas
georgia
south carolina
kansas
for starters.......
time to take the battle to the conservatives in their venues
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)Romney won Texas by nearly 16% in 2012 - 4.5m votes to 3.3m - and while it's moving slowly, but noticeably left, there aren't many signs that it'll move enough by November, even with Trump on the other side. There's a pretty sizeable GOP base entrenched here in rural areas and suburbia.
A presidential year or two down the road, and it'll look more winnable.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)its different this go round
conservatives are stuck with trump
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)If Latinos voted in Texas at the same rate they do in California, it would become a competitive state.
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)Gerrymandering made local, state, and House races so unbalanced that the party just doesn't put a lot of effort into them anymore. Unfortunately, that bleeds over into the other national races and they don't get the attention they should receive, either.
okasha
(11,573 posts)plus South Texas can carry the state for us, especially with a Hispanic VP. Trump is his own worst enemy here. One little shop I know sells Trump piñatas as fast as they can haul them in from Mexico.
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)Obama won the major cities and most of the Valley in 2012. Romney still beat him by 1.2m votes.
Like anything in politics, it's going to be evolutionary. I could certainly be wrong, but I don't see that significant a swing in Texas in 2016, even with Trump as the candidate. There's a large base of GOP voters entrenched here, and they'll vote for pretty much anything with an R on it.
The tide is turning, I just don't think it's turning quickly enough for a win in November here.
okasha
(11,573 posts)I'm hearing a lot of support from conservative women for Hillary. A few months ago it was murmurs. It's showing up on Facebook pages now.
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)and it's only June, Trump has serious problems from a national perspective.
Texas politics is incredibly diverse, much more so than a lot of people realize. It won't surprise me at all if Hillary gets a lot of crossover support here, because there are a lot of pretty moderate Republicans in Texas, but I'm not sure it's enough to overcome the GOP base. Gerrymandering has so screwed up the political environment that TX Dems just don't put a lot of effort into GOTV. That will need to change (and we're working on it, especially with Latino voters) before a lot of the obstacles here can be overcome.
Like I said, I think it's going to happen, I'm just not sure it's going to happen in time for November. It's certainly worth the effort, because if not 2016, then 2018, 2020, etc.
okasha
(11,573 posts)are saying they don't see how any woman could vote for Trump.
Yes, we do need major GOTV efforts, and Hillary needs to do some significant in -person campaigning here.
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)But we have to have something to talk about right?
Seriously tough, it was a good week this past week for our presumptive nominee I must say--poll or no poll.
stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)woolldog
(8,791 posts)Please post reputable pollsters only.
Stallion
(6,474 posts)nm
woolldog
(8,791 posts)isn't it an Internet poll though ? I'm skeptical of those
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)If the polling organization is the one selecting the voters and they're accounting for demographics, party identification, etc., it's obviously a lot more reliable than non-scientific, spammed-by-the-masses polls online.
It looks like Reuters adjusts for demographics, etc., and the poll has a 3.2% MOE, which would be inline with a lot of other polls.
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_13/
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)davidn3600
(6,342 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)davidn3600
(6,342 posts)Anyone who is sensitive to Trump's hate rhetoric has already backed Clinton.
The 20% are likely voters who now have nowhere to go. Hillary is a centrist Democrat. Trump is a far-right conservative. If you don't fit in either realm, you have no candidate.
Blue_Adept
(6,399 posts)A whole lot don't even register it until post-convention/September time period.
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)Once the conventions roll around, most of that 20% will go one way or the other.
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)They are the most disliked nominees in the history of polling.
You are acting as if Hillary is far more likable than Trump. The polling for a very long time shows that's not really the case. Both these two have high negatives.
Will people go one way or the other? Possibly. But don't mistake that for popularity. Many, many people out there will be holding their nose when they vote this November. Whoever wins will enter office pretty unpopular.
Blue_Adept
(6,399 posts)But thanks for assuming that I am. You're basically way off on a whole other tangent than what I was talking about, which basically looks like a cut and paste response.