Latest PPP polls: MS & AL both tight -- its a threesome!
Mississippi Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D) Gingrich 33, Romney 31, Santorum 27, Paul 7 Gingrich +2
Alabama Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D) Gingrich 30, Romney 31, Santorum 29, Paul 8 Romney +1
Raleigh, N.C. – Tuesday looks like it's going to be a close election night in both
Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead
with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And
Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum,
and 8% for Paul.
Gingrich and Santorum are both more popular than Romney in each of these states. In
Mississippi Gingrich's net favorability is +33 (62/29) to +32 for Santorum (60/28) and
+10 for Romney (51/41). It's a similar story in Alabama where Santorum's at +32 (63/31),
Gingrich is at +26 (58/32), and Romney's at only +13 (53/40).
The reason Romney has a chance to win despite being less popular in both states is the
split in the conservative vote. In Mississippi 44% of voters describe themselves as 'very
conservative' and Romney's getting only 26% with them. But he's still in the mix because
Gingrich leads Santorum only 35-32 with them. In Alabama where 45% of voters identify
as 'very conservative,' Romney's at just 24%. But again he remains competitve overall
because his opponents are so tightly packed with those voters, with Santorum at 37% and
Gingrich at 31%.
It's not really clear who, if anyone, has the momentum in these states. In Mississippi folks
who've decided in the last few days go for Gingrich over Santorum 37-29 with Romney
at only 15%. But in Alabama the late deciders go 38-29 for Romney over Santorum with
Gingrich at 23%.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SouthernSwing_312.pdf
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