John King (CNN) just said Oregon expected to be something like 60/40 (Sanders)

[Samantha]

Last edited Tue May 17, 2016, 11:41 PM - Edit history (2)

If it is bigger than that, they will of course let us know. The point is this is the hint he dropped before the network is saying anything.

Sam

CNN JUST CALLED A PROJECTED WIN FOR SANDERS IN OREGON!

[MadBadger]

1. There hasnt been much polling and the demographics do look good for Bernie

Though the one poll I saw was Hillary +15. Will be interesting to see what happens.

[JoeOtterbein]

2. Wow!

[Codeine]

3. Does anybody know the rough delegate breakdown with a result like that? nt

[Kang Colby]

5. Yes...he would net about 13 delegates. n/t

[Codeine]

6. Thank you kindly. nt

[Kang Colby]

8. Np.

There is some mental math I use for these races. I'll show you the trick.

Oregon has 61 pledged delegates. A 50/50 split would be 30.5/30.5. Now they don't award fractional delegates but it's just a fifty fifty split and round up for the winner.

Now I ask myself what is 10% of the total number of delegates. I use 10% because it's easier. So ten percent of 61 is 6.1. So if he wins by 10%, he will net 6 or 7 delegates. If he wins by 20% thats 12-13. 30% 18-19 delegates. 40% he nets 24-25 delegates.

Make sense? That's my trick, it's good enough for an approximation. The states have at-large delegates and other things, but using proportional allocation gets you close enough.

[CorporatistNation]

14. The "Math" At THIS Point Does Not Determine Who IS The Strongest Candidate! It's WHO IS The...

STRONGEST CANDIDATE! One hint... Said candidate does have a balding pate with white hair!

[KingFlorez]

4. That's not exactly what he said

He hypothetically allocated the delegates 60-40 to Sanders for the purpose of creating a scenario. He didn't say that Sanders would win by 60/40 and he would have no way of knowing that because no vote totals will be released until the ballot drop off deadline at 8 PST.

[Samantha]

10. Do you see the words "something like" in the title of the thread (eom)

[Stallion]

7. Rachel Suggested it Might We Closer than Thought

nm

[Samantha]

9. If it works out to be that or better and Kentucky splits the delegates 25/25

I am going to call that an excellent night for Bernie Sanders.

Kentucky is a Republican state that Hillary should have won big. Bernie doesn't often do well in southern states, as you know, and this is a sign of progress for him.

Keep the faith.

Sam

[Codeine]

11. That's a piss-poor night for Bernie.

He needs to be wiping the floor with Clinton to get out of the delegate basement. Splitting delegates is the same as losing for him right now.

[Samantha]

12. Not really - he blocked her in a Southern State and we have yet to hear the results in Oregon (eom)

[LuvLoogie]

16. What you are not getting is that in order to catch Hillary,

Bernie needs to win 65 to 67% of the remaining delegates. Each time he falls short of that in a given primary, means that the winning percentage he needs to catch her goes up. As each primary passes, there are less available delegates from which Bernie can gain on Hillary.

[JimDandy]

13. It's a closed primary state, so I doubt it will be that high for Sanders,

but he should win it with a decent margin.

[Samantha]

15. Yes, I know it is a closed primary state

I think they are going to show the results of the mailed in ballots first because they are tallied; then they hopefully will be ready to count those just cast, for the final results.

I am watching the crowd in California now, and it is amazing. It is even more amazing CNN continues to let it run!

Sam

[JimDandy]

18. Bernie rallies are great to watch

and great to be at. Enjoyed seeing him here in Spokane, WA.

LOL, so CNN is now acting the way they described SBS supporters: quixotic?

[Samantha]

17. Just called by CNN for Sanders (projected victory)!!

[brooklynite]

19. with a margin of 53-47.

[KingFlorez]

20. He's only getting 54% in Multnomah County

So sad for him. That's a pathetic number for a liberal.

[LoverOfLiberty]

21. It certainly isn't going that way

Not a single county is reporting Sanders at 60%

http://gov.oregonlive.com/election/