Predictions for WV?

[firebrand80]

I think Bernie will win by 10ish, 55-45

[msongs]

1. bernie might knock a few delegates off hillary's lead nt

[workinclasszero]

2. Hillary wins the nomination on the first ballot

then the GE and will be our next president.

[NewImproved Deal]

3. I predict an impressive Sanders victory.

And, I predict that the Clinton Apologists will smugly, snarkily dismiss it because WV is "too White" to really matter...

[casperthegm]

4. ^ Spot on

Tomorrow we will see the posts about how the math doesn't add up, drop out Bernie, etc.

[Attorney in Texas]

5. I predict it is year another state where Hillary is less well liked than Sanders or Trump

[notadmblnd]

8. Land of the Hatfields and McCoys.

She offended West virginians. They're not going to forgive and forget.

[Attorney in Texas]

12. She was toast in WV long before she put her Salvatore Ferragamo Vara pumps in her mouth

[appalachiablue]

20. Offense, Insult and Betrayal Are Not Forgotten or Forgiven. The Way of some.

[notadmblnd]

6. Bernie. Maybe by more than you project

She really pissed them off with her coal comments.

[firebrand80]

9. that plus her Obama connections

only thing that might help her is the "Clinton brand" possibly having some sway

[brooklynite]

7. IOW, Sanders will lose more ground...

Fewer delegates left to snag, and a higher percentage required.

[asuhornets]

10. I agree..

[Surya Gayatri]

11. Oh, there'll be around a 5-10 delegate spread, which means HRC's commanding lead

in delegates will be reduced by about 3%.

And, the Bern's uphill slog will increase from 66% required to win, to something like 67%
in subsequent primaries.

[firebrand80]

14. 15 point win = 4 delegate gain nt

[Surya Gayatri]

17. So few? It's even worse for the Bern than I figured.

So, to reach my 5-delegate hypothesis, the Bern would have to win by around 18-19%, is that it?

Even in white WV, I don't see that happening.

[firebrand80]

19. 29 delegates at stake

so a 60-40 win would mean he wins the delegates 17-12, a 5 delegate gain

[Hell Hath No Fury]

13. Bernie by 4-6.

[Waiting For Everyman]

15. That sounds about right.

They've been dissed and discounted so much, it would be poetic justice if they turned out strong enough for Sanders to kick the momentum up a notch.

[firebrand80]

16. There's no such thing as momentum in this race

Each candidate wins their favorable states. Demographics control.

What did "7 out of the last 8" do for Sanders in NY, PA, MD? Nothing.

[Waiting For Everyman]

22. Of course there is.

If people in the next race(s) to vote are moved by something, which can be anything, that is momentum. If this race affects those in Kentucky at all, as it well could, that is momentum. I doubt that Oregon needs any. And in like manner for the other races next.

The past isn't the future and an election is not math, otherwise we wouldn't need to go through this expensive exercise of having elections at all.

[firebrand80]

23. do you have any evidence

that momentum has played a role in this race?

[Waiting For Everyman]

25. Didn't I just say the past isn't the future?

There's a book called The Black Swan. It's all about things happening that aren't predictable.

[Adrahil]

18. Demographically, it favors him by about 15.

So, that's about what I predict. 58-42. Way short of the 66-34 he needs.

[NCTraveler]

21. 60 - 40 Sanders. nt.

[Juicy_Bellows]

24. The ghost of Denver calls for a decisive Sanders win:

EDIT - How awesome was John fucking Denver?

[RoccoR5955]

26. Sanders by 30 points and Clinton drops out! n/t