So...talk to me about Congress

[Proud Public Servant]

I know, I know; it's a lifetime (in politics) until the November election. But I'm looking at RCP polling data, and it's bringing me down.

First, the Senate. Factoring in probable wins by each party (including giving Maine to the Dems), RCP is seeing the Senate split 46-46 with 8 tossup seats. Dems need to win four of those eight to maintain effective control of the Senate. The 8 are: FL, MA, MI, MO, MT, NV, VA, WI. Do we have 4 seats there? Right now our best shots look like FL and MI, and I would hope Warren's numbers improve in MA. That's 3. VA might give us the fourth; polling's swung around wildly there, but right now it's trending for Kaine. Otherwise, though, McCaskill and Tester seem to be in serious trouble, and Tommy Thompson's got a huge lead against all projected opponents in WI. NV I don't know about.

Meanwhile, in the House, with 218 seats required for control, RCP is showing 214 safe GOP seats; the Dems would basically have to sweep the 49 tossups to take control.

Would anyone following this more closely than I care to give me cause for optomism? Because I could use some.

[pinto]

1. Not an analytical take, but I think another factor is Obama's "coattails" in 2012.

Which may be formidable. As could be the growing awareness of the extremist trend in the Republican party.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

2. I'm concerned about the Senate as well

however, the final vote will come down to Democratic turnout. If lots of people get out to vote for President Obama, that will help the downticket races significantly. If voter turnout is low on our end, yeah, we're probably going to lose the Senate (or at least lose a lot of our seats). I will say that, overall, things are starting to look better for us than they did a year ago between the expected GOP overreach, the rise of the Occupy movement, and the healing economy. IMHO we need to capitalize on voter discontent with GOP rule in the states, misrule in Washington in the House, obstructionism in the Senate, and get our people to the polls and make sure that every eligible voter of ours can actually cast a ballot! If we can do that, we stand a chance of holding or even improving our Senate share of seats, as well as maybe even taking the House back. I think that I saw a poll out there that 46-40 people want the Dems back in control of Congress, which is a good sign that people have really soured on the Republicans.

Feeling better now?

[brooklynite]

3. Why is it bringing you down?

Were you expecting an easy coast into Senate control? We have more seats to defend (because of our success in 2006), and it was always going to be close, but I'm comfortable that we're putting a slate of candidates into the field who are going to be strongly competitive.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

4. Things are getting brighter too

Kaine is leading in Virginia (at the moment), Hoekstra majorly screwed up in Michigan with his racist and offensive Superbowl ad, Snowe is retiring, leaving the Pubs to scramble for a candidate, and Bob Kerrey is going to run for his old seat in Nebraska, which has improved our chances dramatically. I'm a little concerned about Warren in Massachusetts though it is still early and she is largely unknown. It may be close but I bet that she can beat Brown. I can't wait to see what the debates are going to be like for that race. Obviously, this is all early and subject to change but it's looking brighter.

[Proud Public Servant]

5. I guess I was hoping

That with the implosion of GOP presidential candidates, teh Senate would get easier, too. No such luck, I guess.

[brooklynite]

7. If anything, it probably makes things harder...

...gives the Republicans the opportunity to say "with Obama's Election so likely, we need to win control of the Senate to block his liberal policies."

[KharmaTrain]

6. As Always Turn Out Is The Key...

It's what helped Democrats take the House & Senate in '06 and lost the House in '10. Its grassroots work that means building strong organizations which means money and people. The big question that I really haven't seen much written about is how well candidates are doing in raising the large sums they'll need not only to be competitive but fend off a lots of SuperPac money that is already slated against them.

The wild card is how depressed the rushpublican vote will be. We know that whomever is the nominee there will be a large portion of the "base" that won't be happy. Will they stay home or show up and either avoid the top ticket race or vote third party and then go with their local rushpublican down the ballot. The other wild card is how enthused Democrats really are...and energized. Don't let the polls and absurdity of the rushpublican demolition derby cloud the fact that this will be a close election and Democrats will have to work hard just to hold serve in the Senate and hopefully gain seats in the House.

[bluedigger]

8. Maine just got a lot more problemattic.

Angus King, former governor, just announced an independent bid. He's very popular, and will hurt the Democratic candidate more than the Republican, I think.