Gallup: Obama Approval Way Up Again (51%)

[TroyD]

I don't get these massive ups and downs. Still, I guess it could be a good sign for Obama.


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Obama Approval 51% (+3)

Obama Disapproval 44% (-4)

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

[woolldog]

1. bizzare

Approval ratings shouldn't swing that much that quickly. Obviously something wrong with Gallup. Looking forward to them being discredited thoroughly after the election.

[TroyD]

2. Just a day or two ago Obama had bad Approval ratings in Gallup

He was down in the 40's, and now he's over 50% again.

What's also odd is that Romney went UP in the National Tracking Poll that just came out at 1:00 PM.

Considering that Presidents with 50% Approval are almost always re-elected, how do you have a President that has Approval at 51% but who trails his opponent in National support?

[Jennicut]

3. RV's is tied. The LV screen is an issue they refuse to correct.

Approval rating is among all adults but shouldn't swing that much. Obama's average approval rating is around 49% which is exactly where W. was in 2004.

[TroyD]

5. What's your theory on why Obama is going way up & down in Approval?

Going up 3 points in Approval and down 4 points in Disapproval in one day is a huge swing.

[Jennicut]

13. Gallup's polling methods are a mess.

They don't break it down for us daily like Tipp/Online does so no way to tell what is going on there. I have no idea what could cause a big shift unless they happened to reach more people in the south one day then other parts of the country.

[imgbitepolitic]

4. gallup

is underestimating latino and black turn out. Right around the 3rd debate they switched to LIKELY voter model. Kind of a bad coincidence for poll watchers on the D side. However, their LV is said to be inaccurate.

[My Pet Goat]

6. I don't understand either, some guesses:

(1) each daily sample is not representative of the U.S., but tilted to regions.
(2) daily sample is too small and picking up way too much noise.

[WI_DEM]

7. Gallup is for the birds.

[sofa king]

8. They're tinkering with their "likely voter" model.

I was disappointed to see one of my sure-thing predictions go awry this year, and I know why it did.

I guessed that at the beginning of October the polls would start inexorably marching back toward 58-60% in favor of the President as pollsters adjusted their "likely voter" models to reflect a more accurate result. Previously, most of the polls would drift away from Republicans and toward Democrats as the election approached.

My rationale was that the media and the pollsters have a massive financial and professional interest in keeping a blowout election close, by creating imaginary momentum for the underdog.

But this time there might be ten times as much money floating around as in previous elections, and one side MUST HAVE THE IMAGINARY MOMENTUM IF THEY WANT A CHANCE TO STEAL IT. They have to get inside the margin of error to make their election theft plans feasible.

So this time, I now think, the press and the polls are being coerced into maintaining their false "horse race" models for as long as they can. Professionally, the pollsters have to make the best call they can the day before the election, or they get nothing at all four years down the road.

I still firmly believe that the vast majority--and I mean like six to seven out of ten--of people who wish to vote this year wish to vote for President Obama, but the pollsters now have a new, stronger impetus to keep the race close right up to the end.

I think that means that somewhere around Thursday or Friday polls from the big boys who plan to be around in four years will start inexplicably and dramatically shifting toward the true numbers once the GOP's money cannot compensate for the loss these pollsters will experience if they keep up the charade too long.

I expect Rasmussen to go down with the ship, though. Fox News will have to change their name.

[Arkana]

9. I...just...what the fuck?

How, how, HOW is no one saying "hmmm perhaps this is not a poll worth listening to, judging by its completely bipolar nature"?

[ProSense]

10. No kidding. It'll be 45 approval tomorrow

Gallup is a joke.

[TroyD]

11. That's what I'm getting at

It was just 46 a few days ago!

[BlueDemKev]

12. Now we know why it's called the "GALLUP" poll...

...like irate horses, they quickly gallop from one side of the pasture to the other.

[qazplm]

14. suggests that they have a lot of bad samples

because I don't think the reality is that folks are changing their minds this rapidly back and forth.