Purple Poll: 12 "swing" states: Obama 47, Romney 45.

[MadBadger]

In just Ohio, Obama 46-44

Colorado, Obama 47-46

Virginia, 47-47 tie

The 12 states are Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.


These numbers are not nearly as good as I thought they would be, because I think he should be up by good margins in at least NM, PA, and MN.

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/October_v7.pdf

[WI_DEM]

1. He has a huge lead in Ohio among early voters +26

Ohio (Obama +2): Our result in Ohio shows a
small move in Governor Romney’s direction
over the last month. Today, President Obama
leads 46% to 44%, down from a 4-point lead in
September. President Obama has a strong lead
among early voters: 26% of Ohio voters say they
have already voted, and he leads by 26 points
among that group. Romney holds a 2-point lead
among independents in the s tate.

[Maximumnegro]

4. Yeah OH is insurmountable at this point

the polling averages have been overwhelmingly for Obama.

[Dr Claw]

16. For what it's worth...

(occasional lurker, new poster)

...I voted early in Cuyahoga County. Last night, after 5:30 PM, when I arrived there, there were a very good amount of people in there. A long line of people ahead of me and behind me. Young and old, voting.

I fully expect Cuyahoga (which is overwhelmingly "Obama Country", aside from "last stand" locales like Solon) to go to Obama. I just hope the rest of Ohio does what's right. I was just glad to see so many people voting early.

[WI_DEM]

20. Welcome!!

[Maximumnegro]

2. This is as good as Purple gets. Remember

they have been slightly right leaning. So consider these conservative numbers.

I think it's great news given the pollster.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I Give These Results A 7 For Us

Didn't live up to the hype. Perhaps it caught Romney at the peak of his momentum that has since abated and will abate some more.

[regnaD kciN]

5. Purple Strategies is a Republican-leaning pollster...

...for what that's worth.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I'm Disappointed In Steve McMahon Then.

[Maximumnegro]

9. That's why he broke the news and not

Castellanos. But yeah they have been right leaning all season.

[MadBadger]

8. Disagree

Steve Mcmahon is a dem and he works there. They have both Republicans and Democrats.

[Maximumnegro]

12. But their polls have been right leaning all year.

[MadBadger]

15. What do you define as right leaning?

They have Obama in the lead still. And there have been no elections yet. How do you know its right leaning?

[geek tragedy]

23. If Obama really is only ahead by 2 points--at only 47%

in the nine swing states plus Minnesota, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania, we're in bad shape.

Assume that he's only up 5 points in the safe states, that means:

PA: O+5
NM: O+5
MN: O+5
OH: O+2
CO: O+1
VA: Tied

That means Romney is probably ahead in all the others combined, which includes Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, FL, NC, NH.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Yeah

I suspect Purple Strategies exists more for businesses and groups that want to affect legislation than it does for individual candidates. If a group or business wants to affect legislation it makes more sense to seek the help of a bipartisan organization.

[Welcome_hubby]

7. Let's put it this way: Rasmussen has Romney ahead by 4% in CO

This means he's full of shit.

Rasmussen also has Ohio a tie and Romney ahead in VA by 2%, so this Purple Poll (which leans right, by the way) confirms Rasmussen's right-wing bias.

[MadBadger]

10. Out of the founding partners, 3 are dems, 2 repubs

Where does this Right leaning polling thing come from?

[geek tragedy]

19. House effect. They produce more R-friendly results than the average pollster.

This is not a good poll result--shows Obama only at 46% in Ohio and considering that 3 states--MN, NM and PA--on that list are safe Obama states, to be up by only 2 indicates big deficits somewhere else--most likely FL and NC.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. Because their polling has consistently been soft...

I don't see how having three Democrats as partners means squat. Baydoun/Foster is a Democratic group and has Obama and Romney tied 47-47 in Michigan ... while they also had Romney up 15 in Florida back in August.

[MadBadger]

31. I think two arguments are being made

1, Their polls lean Right

2, Their a RW organization.

[RomneyLies]

11. From a right wing shill site desperately trying to appear bipartisan

I'll take it.

[VirginiaTarheel]

13. Not bad because it shows only 2 percent O stop since Sept

[TexasCPA]

17. Looks like good news to me

If Obama wins OH + CO or VA, then Obama is president.

[geek tragedy]

18. Purple Strategies leans R. This is not a good poll, since it includes three states that should be

safe for us.

They must have found Romney way ahead in FL and NC.

Meh.

[WI_DEM]

22. actually it's results are not all that different than most other polls.

[geek tragedy]

24. Obama should be up a lot more than +2 if you add PA, MN, and NM into the mix.

They also have way too many undecideds. According to their OH poll, 26% have already voted, but 10% are undecided.

That means that something like 15% of those who have yet to vote are undecided. I don't buy that.

[MadBadger]

26. Maybe their top line poll is off, but I think the State polls are very believable

[geek tragedy]

27. They seem believable, but what about the state results they didn't disclose? nt

[MadBadger]

32. They did three separate polls in those states

So those individual polls are not related to the main 12 state poll.

[TroyD]

37. I think CNN"s poll says only 4% are undecided in OHIO

Based on what I saw on my T.V. Screen a little while ago.

[TexasCPA]

25. Florida is going to skew the sample

Based upon 2008 votes, here is what the sample should look like:

5.93% CO
20.73% FL
3.80% IA
7.19% MN
2.39% NV
1.76% NH
2.05% NM
10.66% NC
14.10% OH
14.82% PA
9.20% VA
7.37% WI

I can throw these number in to come up with an Obama +2%.

1.00% CO
-1.00% FL
2.00% IA
8.00% MN
4.00% NV
2.00% NH
8.00% NM
-1.00% NC
2.00% OH
5.00% PA
0.00% VA
3.00% WI

[Blaukraut]

21. Their polling has been pretty steady and not very bullish on Obama average 2-4 pt lead n/t

[mgcgulfcoast]

28. bad compared to what i heard last night

obama leads in all 12?

[woolldog]

30. Meh

Good but not worth the tease by McMahon.

[TexasCPA]

33. OH, CO, AND VA were oversampled

"N size=1000 likely voters, margin of error +/-3.1. CO, OH, and VA have been oversampled to N=600 per state, margin of error +/-4.0."

[Jennicut]

34. This poll is good for Obama. Let me break it down.

Purple Strategies polled 1000 people in 12 states for the overall poll. For the OH, VA, and CO polls they polled 600 people per state. Basically, 1,000 people in 12 states is an extremely small sample. It is about 83 people per each of the 12 states. It is more of a national poll of people from the 12 states then a true representation of each state. Don't worry about how much each state would work out to be because the sample size is simply too small for that. Not enough people from each state were polled. Therefore, to be up 2 points is just fine. Obama was up 5 points in September. The other 3 states have enough people sampled to give a clearer picture.

As for the other 3 polls, Purple Strategies has always shown very good results for Romney.

OH as plus 2 for Obama in this right leaning poll and plus 2 for Obama in right leaning ARG are very bad for Romney. CNN has it plus 4 in OH today. Romney is not going to win Ohio with this many days left.

CO and VA should not even be in play for Obama in this right leaning poll if Romney is going to win WI, IA, OH, or NV. Mittens would need to be up in those states to be winning the other states too. He is not. Mitt is in trouble in the electoral college and he knows it. Ryan is not in the redstates just for money. He is distancing himself from Mittens.

[geek tragedy]

35. The state polls are better than the overall poll.

Actually, I like the tie in Virginia a lot more than the 46-44 lead in Ohio.

[Jennicut]

36. The overall poll is not significant in terms of where each state is

among those 12 states. You couldn't break it down that way because 83 people per state is not enough to determine that. It basically tells us that Obama is not behind among the 1,000 people spread across those 12 states. That is bad for Mittens. He needs to be ahead in CO, VA, NV, IA, WI, etc.

[TroyD]

38. CO, OH, and VA

Why did they only release actual numbers for 3 states?

In the past they have released numbers for more states than that, yes?

Why no numbers for IO, NV, NH, FL etc?

[smorkingapple]

39. These guys Robopoll folks.. The real #'s are better for Obama...