2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMy big fear: This is 1988 all over again.
I don't know how long you've been around politics. But I remember a guy in 1988 named Mike Dukakis. Competent, a little weak on the stump, but a proven performer in political administration. He started the Fall campaign with a 17 point polling lead over Poppy Bush (a universally ridiculed and idiosyncratic candidate), which is far better than Clinton's 9 points over Trumpenstein.
How did Bush win and reverse those numbers, winning with a 7% spread in November? He repaired relations with the conservative base and appealed to independents and hammered away at Dukakis's fundamental weaknesses as a candidate.
I don't think we should ever, ever underestimate the conservative populace's earnest willingness to rally round their One Strong Man. The wingnuts did it for Poppy Bush in 1988 (and cashed in their chips throughout the first Bush White House--mostly with SCOTUS nominees and killing condom-based AIDS prevention programs in Africa--fuck all yall conservative motherfuckers very much). Did they like him? No. Did they trust him? No.
But they pinched their noses and voted for him because if there's one thing a conservative has a talent for, it's willingly suspending doubts about a flawed man in service of a higher cause, and then marching along with the crowd. I'm sure there's some evangelists out there already figuring out how to convince their flocks that Donald Trump is just like that adulterous, murdering, corrupt, vainglorious King David. Hell, he's already married to Bathsheba.
(Yes, in this analogy, Goliath would be Howard Stern--do not trouble the minds of the Right or question the mysteries of the Lord)
But I digress. Well.
In our corner, apparently (and give me a minute here, guys, sniff) we've got our establishment candidate, Hillary Clinton. Now, I respect Clinton. She's done great service for the nation. But she's never provided that spark of inspiration that unites broad groups of people. Her negative are high--something Dukakis in his 24 point drop never had to contend with. She doesn't give the sort of inspiring speech that gradually or even temporarily wins over her opponents. Bubba had it. Godfuckhim, even Dubya had it, though to be fair, only when he had 9/11 at his back (it never worked on me or you, of course, but he quite deftly managed to parley his passing popularity into getting his Congressional agenda passed--and frequently he personally was more popular than his atrocious policy agenda). Obama, obviously, has that inspirational spark by the bucketloads.
By contrast, Secretary Clinton has been just barely able to beat Bernie Sanders for the nomination in a fight that has, unfortunately, exposed a lot of fundamental fissures within our party. Yet look at all her advantages. She had millions of dollars just drop into her lap--so many millions that she hardly made an effort to do real grass roots fundraising. The corporate media all but shut down all coverage of Sanders, a crotchety old septuagenarian with a harsh regional accent most associated with cranky misanthropic neighbors on sitcoms, a man who wasn't even a Democrat a full year ago, a man from a tiny state that even other New Englanders think is idiosyncratic, and on top of that he calls himself a Socialist. And this is the guy she's barely able to beat, even with the endorsements of practically every politician on Capital Hill and every state house? Oy.
Don't get me wrong. I love Bernie. But I won't kid myself that he's only ever been a stand-in for Elizabeth Warren.
Let me diagnose the problem right now, my beloved fellow Democrats. We suffer from overconfidence. We suffer from hubris. All this chatter about the Republican Party breaking up misses one key point. Republicans and conservatives are followers. They are by nature hungry to belong to something bigger than themselves. They want a big daddy to tell them what to do. They worship at the altar of Mammon and are about to nominate the golden-haired living son of Mammon... and they will do and believe anything to keep Hillary Clinton out of the White House. They will even swallow Donald Trump's outright mockery of the Bible as straight Gospel quotations just to believe that they're voting for the right side.
The time for Democratic Party in-fighting is just about over. I acknowledge my imminent defeat. But the people among the Hillary supporters who are crowing victory and now demanding that we all concede the day and fall in line behind the nominee are talking to the wrong fucking party. Republicans fall in line. How else do you explain Rednecks for Romney or College Graduates for George W. Bush? Democrats are cats; we won't be herded. You gotta open up a can of tuna fish if you want us to come to your kitchen. The job isn't of the losers to fall in. The job is of the winning side, the leaders of the party, to give us something to believe in. You've GOT to win the Bernie voters over--which is how it should be in a democracy. Hell, half the Bernie voters aren't even Democrats. He's pulling his votes from independents and new voters who are still developing their political philosophies. That's exactly who you have to win over to beat Trump. Don't think for a second he doesn't have a plan to win over pro-reform voters. Clinton has got to get there first with a bigger offer.
Berners can be won over, but the appeal has to be genuine. This would be unexplored country for Secretary Clinton. She's been so scrutinized, so abused by so many powerful, hate-filled people over the years, that she's simply not inclined to be open and generous of spirit even on the eve of victory. She's not just inexperienced at keeping it real; she's quite bad at it. She plays that "I'm an outsider cause I'm a woman" card as if it's fooling anyone. No, Mrs-heir-apparent-to-the-president-of-the-United-States, you're not an outsider. You make a quarter of a million dollars telling something secret to Goldman Sachs; you're not an outsider. You had most of the Superdelegates in your pocket before a single vote was cast. You keep an enemies list with numerical rankings, confident that you'll be able to do payback on anyone who crosses you. I'm not stupid. I fucking know you don't have a bottle of hot sauce in your purse. You're not an outsider. Don't insult me.
The biggest complaint among us Sandernistas is that we're losing our democracy. In a democracy, the voters are sovereign and the leaders are simply public servants. This is how it should be. Clinton needs to approach us, give us concessions, bargain with us, pitch her cause to us in terms we understand and will believe. Don't pull up in a limo and talk about how hard your struggles are. You caved on $15/hour. Cave to us again--not on every issue; you did win, after all--but give us a reason to come into the fold. This is how bargaining and compromise work in a democracy. That is how leaders lead, at least among Democrats. That is how you win.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)portrayed or shown.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)just not ready for that level of competition
Clinton's already faced the rightwing noise machine that targeted Dukakis, and here she is.
Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)I grew up in a red state, and my dad had a Dukakis sticker on his bumpersticker. Act of defiance when surrounded by Republicans.
After witnessing his lack of response to the attacks, my dad took the bumper sticker off before the election, out of disgust. It was like going into battle and then watching the general ride his horse in the opposite direction.
Trenzalore
(2,331 posts)He let his principles get in the way when facing a candidate with less scruples than he had. Dukakis could have run a much harder edged campaign and beat Bush. He decided to take the high road way to often while Bush and Atwater were punching him in the balls.
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)She certainly seems to be.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)jfern
(5,204 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Way too mealy-mouthed. Also, the country had not yet come off it's Reagan-induced haze. We're still fighting it.
jfern
(5,204 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)And he wasn't then identified as a little to the right of Gen. Franco by members of his own party.
Too many folks have CDS.
jfern
(5,204 posts)People don't like Hillary because of Hillary not because of attacks. Bernie has been attacked plenty by Hillary, and he still has good favorables.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)quaker bill
(8,224 posts)you know we have seen her in action, right?
My family kicked in 60 hours a week of volunteer time to "Mr. Electability" himself (John Kerry).
As far as Mr. Dukakis was concerned, "Willie Horton" will seem like polite parlor conversation compared to what Trump will be doing come October.
Ms. Clinton will have to be a lot more than "not a dull, lifeless wimp" if she wants back into 1600 Penn Ave (other than with a Visitor Pass).
John Poet
(2,510 posts)which Dukakis wasn't.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)yardwork
(61,599 posts)Of all the elections this reminds me of, 1988 is probably one of the last I'd mention.
It reminds me some of 1968, and that's not good.
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)Bluerome
(129 posts)djean111
(14,255 posts)Not having it, not at all.
peacebird
(14,195 posts)She will do exactly what her corporate owner/donors want done.
Bucky
(54,003 posts)Correction: I know that that is over simplifying. Hillary Clinton might be corporate-friendly, but if you call her a neocon I don't think you know what that word means.
peacebird
(14,195 posts)Is Henry Kissinger.
She advocated for (and got implemented ) our disastrous policies in Hondouras, Libya & Syria. She has called for a more muscular approach to Iran.
She IS a neocon.
ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)A somewhat uninspiring establishment Dem from the incumbent administration gets torn down by a challenger from the left who successfully stokes disillusionment among young voters by convincing them there's no difference between the two parties. Meanwhile nobody takes the dumb, crazy Republican candidate seriously because clearly they're just a joke, right?
My thoughts exactly.
yardwork
(61,599 posts)Bucky
(54,003 posts)What I was thinking about was the Democratic nominee's precipitous fall in the opinion polls. It happened in 1988 & I fear it could happen in 2016 as well.
I am marginally encouraged by Clinton's willingness to do anything to get elected. I just hope that she has the same skill-set to get that done among the general voting population as she did among Democratic party members
rbrnmw
(7,160 posts)Hillary won't have Tad Devine around to tank her chances
peacebird
(14,195 posts)Zira
(1,054 posts)Bernie actually inspires people's hope for change. They will come out for Bernie to beat the Republicans.
It's hard to see them doing that for Hillary when so many consider her one.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)But I fully agree with many of the general concepts throughout. Thanks for sharing.
Bucky
(54,003 posts)I would like to see us have a conversation about how to support our nominee. I'm sad it won't be the more electable candidate but I'm always willing to support the liberal, even if she isn't pro-reform.
bjo59
(1,166 posts)like a charm). Neither did that video footage the Bush campaign ran showing Dukakis riding around in a tank. That's what people remember about the Dukakis run. I'm a "Berner" who can't be won over by appeals. I vote on people's records and policy positions. (By the way, I wouldn't trust any concessions offered by anyone who has a long and substantiated record of obfuscation and even outright lying as Clinton most certainly does - something that has been reported for years and years by the very media that supports her now.)
pansypoo53219
(20,976 posts)Barack_America
(28,876 posts)I have. That's what I'm watching.
Bucky
(54,003 posts)I hope she runs nationally sometime
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)She may be our only way out this year.
DavidDvorkin
(19,475 posts)With Trump playing Goldwater.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)I will NEVER forget it. Trump won't have to do ANYTHING to repair relations with the conservative base. Hillary will do that for him simply by being there.
OTOH, I am not sure at all that Progressives will be there for Hillary.
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)And she wants my vote now? Well NO I CAN'T!
I believe Bernie hasn't lost until she has won and she has not yet won. But if she does she will have to do better than "no we can't" to get my vote.
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)AZ Progressive
(3,411 posts)This was incredible stupidity, like the Clintons own the Democratic Party?
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)pitch her cause to us in terms we understand and will believe."
If you want to be won over, the ball's really in your court, you know. She's pitched her cause to you many times. Please start considering.
Her statements on issues: https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/
A part of her record: http://www.ontheissues.org/Hillary_Clinton.htm
A comparison of Bernie and Hillary: http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-35666347
http://ichef- For example:
Hillary Clinton's tax plan is basically Sanders-lite. She wants a 4% surtax on income over $5 million, an increase in capital gains taxes, the closing of "tax loopholes" for the wealthy, taxing hedge fund managers' "carried interest" income at higher rates and increasing the estate tax rate.
As for "concessions" and "bargaining" with you, I don't think Sanders' followers really want that. Sanders promises "revolutionary" change that will sweep away corruption and income inequality. Quickly too. All we need to do is vote for him and it will happen. This drew big, and its buyers want more.
Nevertheless, more than 3/4 of Bernie's voters already considered Hillary long ago and decided she made a good, or at least quite acceptable, second choice. So they're taken care of.
Which leaves the ones spoken of here. Imo, those who have refused to consider Hillary before but are, in a low moment, imagining they might accept "concessions" in return for voting for her should instead keep their dreams. I hear some guys over on the GOP side are selling, and they should check them out carefully. I like to think that'll scare them right back for their first real, eyes-open look at our moderate progressive Democratic candidate as a more modest but achievable way to pursue their dreams. But who knows.