Bernie's real delegate target in NY is...

[Godhumor]

135 of 247 available (Roughly equivalent to a 55-45 win)!

Math is simple. 538 target to be on pace for the nomination is an outright win of 125 delegates. Bernie is at 92% of his target to date, which means he needs to beat his remaining targets by an average of 8%. 125 x 1.08 is 135 delegates. Anything less than that means he falls further behind.

For example:

If he finishes tied with Clinton, he falls another 22-24 delegates behind in the nomination race (He underperforms where he needs to be by 11 - 12 delegates while Clinton over-performs by the same amount)

If he loses by 5% that becomes a 36-38 delegate gap

If he loses by 10% that is a 48-50 delegate gap


Bernie can't afford moral victories anymore. NY is not just a must win, he needs to win convincingly to have any viable path other than having to win California by a ridiculous margin of 60% or more.

Targets found at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

[NurseJackie]

1. This will be fun to watch.

[Betty Karlson]

2. Sounds doable, with all those new (young) voters registered and ready to vote.

Not to mention Bill and Hillary's amazing performances in "black lives don't matter if they defend superpredators" and "CP times with Bill de Blasio".

[DrDan]

3. "ready to vote" and actually voting are two different things

[Betty Karlson]

4. Sanders has never had an enthousiasm problem among Millennials.

They come out for him in droves. That's how Nevada was flipped.

You are thinking about Clinton's fleeting and sometimes never materialised support.

[DrDan]

7. enthusiasm perhaps, but in Iowa 18% voting were under 30

which is in line with off-year elections for this demographic

Presidential election years draws only 25%.

[Godhumor]

8. And with the registration cut off, NY is likely to be even lower

They're touting registering 40k new voters in a state where 1.5 million to 2 million people will vote in the Democratic primary.

Even if every single one of them votes and votes for Bernie (which is a statistical impossibility), that barely registers on the scale.

[Betty Karlson]

9. Must be great, to feel so entitled, assured, and privileged. eom

[DrDan]

12. entitled and privileged - interesting in that every one of them could have registered and can vote

[Fawke Em]

16. Most people new to the process would never have imagined you'd have to

register half a year before you vote.

Come on, now, even in red states, registration isn't that restricted.

[DrDan]

17. I don't think that is true for new registrations

Onlt those changing their registration

[DrDan]

11. I think that is exactly right

[NWCorona]

10. Iowa was the first state to vote and Bernie is much stronger now than ever

Besides until they release the real numbers I will always question the outcome of that state.

[Buzz Clik]

5. If Sanders wins by 5% in NY, he has a path to win if:

He wins in CT, IN, WV, KY, OR, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, MT, NM, ND, SD and ties in DE, RI, GUAM, CA, and NJ. losing only MD, PA, an Wash DC.

He must win 12 of the next 20 and have huge wins (10%+) in 11 of the 21 remaining states.

If he loses NY by a mere 2%, he cannot afford another loss in any state and he'll need to flip CA into a win (not a tie).


ON THE FLIP SIDE:
If Clinton loses in NY by 1% and performs only half as well as the polls are predicting in CT, MD, and PA on Apr 26, then Sanders needs wins in CT, IN, WV, KY, OR, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, MT, NM, ND, SD, and CA and ties in DE, RI, GUAM, and NJ. losing only MD, PA, an Wash DC.

His win in CA will need to be a 10% blowout, and he'll win by 2 delegates.
__________________________
*NOTE: All of this ignores the Superdelegates. If we put the supers in play, the primary is already over.

[Godhumor]

13. I'd say the chances of your scenario happening are about 1 in a 1000

And that might be generous.

[Buzz Clik]

14. I give it a one in 95,000,000 chance.

Each scenario is 50/50 at best: 0.5^20.

[Surya Gayatri]

6. Excellent analysis. K & R

[Godhumor]

15. Why not, a bump for the weekend n/t

[Godhumor]

18. And one last bump on the eve of the primary n/t

[firebrand80]

19. All this talk of winning PDs is pointless

He's already essentially moved on to the "contested convention" talking point