2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumOld Dominion University: Virginia (Obama 50%, Romney 43%)
Kind of an odd poll considering the one month date range, but Teagan Goddard just posted it, so I thought it was worth a look.
-----
October 24, 2012
President Barack Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney among likely Virginia voters, according to a new Old Dominion University poll, but the survey taken in the weeks before and after their first debate indicates Romney is closing the gap.
The landline and cellphone survey, conducted between Sept. 19 and Oct. 17 by ODU's Social Science Research Center, found that Obama was favored by 50 percent, Romney by 43 percent and three other presidential candidates by a combined 3 percent.
Just over 3 percent of those polled said they were undecided or didn't know. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Poll takers began to see a marked shift toward Romney after the Oct. 3 televised debate in Denver, said Jesse Richman, an assistant professor of political science at ODU who analyzed the poll results.
-----
More:
http://hamptonroads.com/2012/10/obamas-still-virginia-romneys-closing-gap
BainsBane
(53,073 posts)That's it for Romney. He can't win if he loses both VA and OH.
vi5
(13,305 posts)I'd love to be wrong, and this is a nice shot in the arm of optimism. But I'm guessing an outlier.
Thrill
(19,178 posts)vi5
(13,305 posts)Maybe I'm thinking of a different state to be honest with you. At this point my mind is becoming numb and hazy with all the numbers and polls and everything else. I thought VA was trending solidly R. I hope I'm wrong.
FBaggins
(26,773 posts)Rasmussen, ARG, NBC/Marist all have small (inside the MOE) leads for Romney in their most recent polls. WeAskAmerica had one just after the first debate and hasn't polled since then.
There have been a couple others, but IIRC, they were all sponsored polls (by Citizens United for instance).
BeyondGeography
(39,384 posts)2/3 taken before the first debate. We're still in decent shape in VA, but nowhere near +7.
mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)may as well have 1 poll from jan1 to nov1
mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)i think va is dead even right now.
demOcrat11
(57 posts)I live in hampton roads and a lead for Obama that big doesnt seem to be the case. There is a lot of diversity though so its possible.
In HR too. This is a very purple area. As long as O keeps this area to McCain levels (M 55 O 45) we should be alright. Nova will bring it home. I remember back in 2008 when the first totals were coming in we were down by about 10. Didn't turnaround til they started counting Nova which came later in the night. We're def not plus 7 though.
Setsuna1972
(332 posts)I think we'll be just fine, McCain had much more lively support in 2008, this year it's more like ,"well we don't like Obama, but Mitt's all we've got" for the local Repukes
yellowcanine
(35,701 posts)Arkana
(24,347 posts)bushisanidiot
(8,064 posts)All of these stupid Connecticut polls but they can't do VA???
Azathoth
(4,611 posts)Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)It will not be by this margin though. Should he win the state, expect the margin to be 2-4%.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)the race actually is TODAY.