There's a very optimistic statistic buried in one of the snap polls from last night

[mnhtnbb]

regarding who won the debate.

From the PPP poll of swing states comes this little gem:


"Maybe even more important than the sentiment on who won the debate is who folks in these swing states are planning to vote for now: 51% of them say they're going to support Obama to 45% who stand with Romney. That includes a 46/36 advantage for Obama with independents..."

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-wins-debate-by-11-points-in-swing-states.html


Why am I so heartened by this? Because here in North Carolina we have a HUGE voter registration of 'unaffiliated'--which is
our way of classifying independents.

Here are the voter registration totals as of today in NC:

Voter Registration as of 10/23/2012 Democratic: 2,843,490 Republican: 2,037,725 Libertarian: 18,513 Unaffiliated: 1,695,271 Total: 6,594,999

http://www.ncsbe.gov/items.aspx?id=1&s=1

We already have over an 800,000 edge in Dem registrations vs Repub registrations.


IF--yes that's a big IF-- those independents break with the same % for Obama as this snap poll indicates--or even within a couple of percentage points--then we are looking at a clear path to a win for Obama in NC. It IS possible; it IS doable; it is all about GOTV.

And the view from the ground here in NC is that the Obama team is doing a terrific job of getting people out to vote. There are other threads dedicated to showing the turnout which--so far--has been huge, surpassing the numbers for early turnout in 2008.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021599822


I'm going to add my NC vote today in early voting for the President of the United States, Barack Obama.

WE CAN DO THIS!!!

[bushisanidiot]

1. NC is doable for the President

I would love to see the republican freak out when Obama's numbers just peak over the top of romney's on election night in NC. they won't be able to handle it.

[mnhtnbb]

2. I live in the bluest of the blue counties in NC--so it's a constant struggle for me to

realize how many people in this state don't think about things the way I do.

I went into this election season very concerned whether the President could get
NC to go blue again--especially after the disastrous mid-term election when
NC turned to Repubs statewide to take control of the State Legislature.
It was VERY depressing.

I have been more and more encouraged since last spring. Now, I believe
we can really do this again--and possibly with a little more than that razor
thin margin of 14,000 votes in 2008.

[NYC Liberal]

4. Even if Romney manages to squeak by there...

I still think it's great that states like Virginia and North Carolina are "swing states" now and actually contestable. VA hadn't gone blue since 1964 and North Carolina only once since 1960.

Arizona is also contestable and I think Obama could win it if they felt it was worth spending money there. He doesn't need AZ so they won't. But still.

[struggle4progress]

3. You Can Get It If You Really Want

[mnhtnbb]

7. Thanks for the musical encouragement!

[OhioworkingDem]

5. Keep working!

Lets all volunteer and donate tangible time to help the president get re-elected.

[Liberalynn]

6. Kick