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(50,064 posts)
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 08:04 PM Apr 2016

Itís Really Hard To Get Bernie Sanders 988 More Delegates

After a trio of landslide wins in Washington, Alaska and Hawaii on Saturday — the best single day of his campaign — Bernie Sanders narrowed his delegate deficit with Hillary Clinton. But he still has a lot of work to do. Sanders trails Clinton by 228 pledged delegates and will need 988 more — a bit under 57 percent of those available — to finish with the majority.

That alone wouldn’t be enough to assure Sanders of the nomination because superdelegates could still swing things Hillary Clinton’s way in a close race, but put aside that not-so-small complication for now. The much bigger problem is that it isn’t easy to see where Sanders gets those 988 delegates.

It’s Really Hard To Get Bernie Sanders 988 More Delegates

Nate Silver shows what Bernie Sanders needs to get the nomination. This is just before the Wisconsin primary. Sanders was 2 delegates short of the target.

Nate's closing paragraph...

But things can change, and polls can be wrong — and so it’s worth doing the math to see what winning 988 more delegates would look like for Sanders. Call it a path-of-least-implausibility. If you think Sanders can meet or exceed these targets, then you can say with a straight face that you think he’ll win the nomination. If you think they’re too good to be true, then you can’t. Here’s the Bernie-miracle path I came up with:

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