Poll: Sanders Opens A Small National Lead As Democratic Divisions Harden

[silvershadow]

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has a lead of two percentage points over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationwide, while one in four of his supporters do not plan on supporting Clinton if she wins the nomination, according to a McClatchy-Marist poll released Wednesday.

The poll showed support for Sanders at 49 percent while Clinton stood at 47 percent. Furthermore, 25 percent of Sanders supporters said they would not support Clinton as the Democratic nominee in the general election, while only 14 percent of Clinton supporters said the same of Sanders.

This is the first McClatchy-Marist poll of Democrats nationwide, and it contrasts sharply with recent polling, nearly all of which shows Clinton enjoying a comfortable lead. TPM’s PollTracker Average shows Clinton at 47.4 percent, and Sanders at 42.5 percent.

The McClatchy-Marist poll was carried out from March 29-31 using live phone interviews. Pollsters surveyed 444 people likely to vote in the Democratic primary, with a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.

More: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/sanders-leads-recalcitrant-supporters-mcclatchy-april#

[Jackie Wilson Said]

1. One in four will act selfish and childish if Bernie loses...That is a lot of people, darnit.

[JonLeibowitz]

2. You are making a judgement call of whether they are selfish and childish.

You don't know these people nor their motivations, as a group or individually.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

3. Well, you are right in that some may be right wingers who are either

lying about their support for Bernie or who actually do support him but wont support Hillary.

[Joe the Revelator]

18. Some could be dragons who aren't actually able to vote....

what's your point?

[Jackie Wilson Said]

19. I get it, some Bernie supporters dont give a damn what a GOP white house will

do to women, minorities, immigrants and the planet.

Believe me, message heard LOUD and CLEAR!

[nadinbrzezinski]

22. I talk to them, and they are worried about what a Clinton WH will do

to all those issues. By the way, they also state that given climate change, if either the Rs or Clinton get into the WH, it will be either a fast way to hell, or a slow one. A few even speak in more morose terms about species extinction. They are also tired of the games played in DC and the even more morose have stated that they will never again vote. It really does not matter to them...

So no you have not received the message. They could not be more clear, but those in love with the status quo will realize the kids were right... someday.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

25. Again, if you are Bern or Bust, or they are, then are willing to sentence minorities,

women and immigrants to hell on earth.

Period

So says Thom Hartmann and Bernie Sanders.

[nadinbrzezinski]

30. I am just reporting to you what the kids are saying

many of them are dreamers, immigrants and women. So I would be careful about those assumptions. As I said, I talk to them regularly.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

36. Then they are WOEFULLY misinformed. You should educate them as to

what hell on earth would occur if the GOP takes over.

[nadinbrzezinski]

40. You know they are a lot more informed and sophisticated than you think they are

you think the GOP is all evil... well sorry charlie, they see politicians not as Ds or Rs, but as what they do. They do not like Clinton, for some very cogent reasons. For the record they don't like Trump either. So what does that leave? hmmm curious hey.

This new era when younger voters have in many ways rejected partisan politics is starting to upend the system. Chinese curses and all that, but this is hardly going to be over in November. It likely started to be obvious at a national level here.



And many of their elders are joining them now.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

41. Ahh, we finally got there it seems.

you think the GOP is all evil... well sorry charlie

Yes, I think the GOP has intentions that are beyond evil. I do not believe in evil, it being religious, but yes.

[nadinbrzezinski]

43. Good, when you try to convince them that the GOP is evil

they will laugh at you. They have very cogent reasons to consider both parties corrupt, and not wanting to fall into the D or R side of the column Why the fuck do you think Independent voters are the current king makers in American politics? (I am assuming a fairly clean election by the way)

[Jackie Wilson Said]

45. Of course both are corrupt, but if they think there is no difference on the social issues

they are mistaken.

It is as simple as that.

You are giving the GOP power ....

[nadinbrzezinski]

57. And in economic matters and climate change

which is what happens to matter to these kids, there is not much of a difference, or a difference of degree. When you raise the Supreme Court, after the laughter subsides, they will point to you that after global temps go up by 4-6 degrees Fahrenheit, the USSC will be academic. Hell a lot of shit will be academic.

Locally one of my local candidates for city council, he happens to be from that gen and is running as a dem, has raised the need to build a sea wall, which has been received with caucus laughter by both the Ds and Rs... he is correct incidentally. Given sea level rises, the city (and the USN) will have to build one to protect silly shit like the Navy base and the convention center. Alas none of these idiots is under 50, so they cannot see that far. They lack in imagination, and this shit is bipartisan by the way.

Now the environmentalists in this town are a strong coalition (some are Rs, some are Ds, some are Greens, independent voters a large part... it gets interesting) They managed to get the city to adopt a climate action plan, which includes the beginning of a locally run municipal utility (Choice Aggregation) that will be cheaper than my local large private utility. What are the Ds about to do? Remover roof top solar from the party plank. Why? The utility is in the process of capturing the party. There is no need to capture the Rs, they are already captured (and a joke for reasons that have nothing to do with the present discussion).

So what do you think the kids think when they see that?

And by the way, they are far more knowledgeable on choice aggregation than even party whigs. And that is just one example. I call that taking a loaded gun and shooting your foot off incidentally.

So careful about calling the coming generation uninformed.

[Joe the Revelator]

80. This is some next level fear mongering bullshit

[840high]

75. .that^ X100

[nadinbrzezinski]

76. Under a few models Bernie will have the majority of Delegates going to the Convention

but after spending some time going over numbers, the chance that either will have the target number will not happen... enter the SDs

Unlike 2008 I do not expect HRC will concede We are heading for a floor fight.

[DebDoo]

23. And some Hillary supporters don't care either

They stubbornly refuse to see what harm giving Hillary the dem nomination could do - just keep pretending she isn't riddled with scandal, dishonest and lacking good judgement - hey, you can always blame someone else when the shit hits the fan.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

24. I am trying to give it to Bernie, and you are right, he is a far better choice.

[pangaia]

58. It would be either our corporatist or theirs.

I suspect some, many, all DO give a damn, but perhaps they are just so fed up with having no choice, that they just say fuck it, what's the point?

Bernard is the only present hope out of the morass.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

67. Right, they say all those who will be terribly harmed by my action or lack thereof

dont matter.

[JPnoodleman]

73. Its more accurate a fear of what Hillary will do,

Or not do, or what she will trade away.

[Joe the Revelator]

79. Hypothetically, why would one vote for GOP light, when they could vote their conscious?

[SheilaT]

4. With every new poll is numbers go up.

Nice.

[revbones]

54. It's easier to explain principles that way when you may not have any yourself.

Just take a broad brush and call people that don't do what you want "childish"

[ladjf]

56. Good post. Thanks. There are some much deeper reasons why some Bernie backers would not

vote for Hillary and if you state what I think they are, I might get booted off of DU.

[Joob]

6. It's not selfish or childish. It's called leaving a party that doesn't represent you.

I'm not being held hostage by some party I once believed in. YOU just need to accept reality.
Hillary is corrupt. Takes millions of dollars from banks and corporations. AND it's fine.
This party won't mean a damn thing to me once she's the face for it.

[tabasco]

10. It's also called allowing a lunatic to become your nation's chief executive.

This election, not voting for the Democrat is a vote for Caligula. The country needs a viable liberal third party.

[Joob]

11. Agreed. I have a feeling this election will be the start of a third viable third party.

No one's going to fall in line and try to fix the Democratic Party once Bernie is out of the race.
That's the real pie in the sky theory.

[ladjf]

61. Your logic is good. However, it wouldn't be an easy task to set up a third party that could win.

The Republican Party is on the verge of complete collapse. The Democratic Party is in the worst shape I can ever recall.

Maybe the time has really come for a third Party that is mature, intelligent, honest, humanistic, and genuinely cares about the best interests of most Americans rather than the uncontrolled Capitalists. How unique. Imagine a Government that is basically honest,
a Government that you respected and trusted. And it that worked here in America, it would spread all over the World.

[merrily]

32. I don't think the country needs any more parties than it has. None of the scores of parties are

"viable" because there are already too many parties as it is.

The left needs to unify more, not fragment more.

[tabasco]

34. Good point, but the Democratic party has become much too centrist,

leaving a lot of people without hope for progress.

[merrily]

38. Lord knows, I agree about the centrism, but there are a couple of ways to go that

do not involve starting a new party. One is to become individually much more active in the Democratic Party than I believe many on this board are. Another is to try to organize together and form a sizeable block in one of the existing parties, either the Democratic Party or another.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_the_United_States

My first preference though, is to get Bernie Sanders elected the nominee and let him and his peeps figure it out.

[riderinthestorm]

9. 14% of Hillary supporters won't vote for Bernie or 1 out of 6

The split is hardening and I don't see how you mend that.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

12. Hillary folks are more likely to concede, give in. Based on the attitudes I have seen I predict

that.

[riderinthestorm]

13. Anecdotal..Sorry but the stats here don't support your position. nt

[Jackie Wilson Said]

14. Disagree, in fact by definition those who some accuse of party loyalty, will be guilty

of that and will vote Bernie even if they dont want to.

That is obvious.

[riderinthestorm]

20. Then the 25% figure is suspect as well since some BOBs will secretly vote for Hillary.

Either the stats hold true for both or neither.

All anecdotes aside...

[Jackie Wilson Said]

21. The number would be less than 1% if we were a more compassionate society.

[riderinthestorm]

51. Those that believe Hillary will doom our planet's survival

would take great umbrage at their being labeled as uncompassionate.

In fact they'd answer that they have the utimate compassion for the fate of humankind and the survival of our earth.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

53. But the Bern or Bust people are condeming pregnant women to self aborting, Mexican Americans

to deportation, Muslim Americans to increased scrutiny, I could go on, and on, and on.

[riderinthestorm]

63. Best estimate is in 5-10 years none of that will matter

We'll have obvious coastal flooding (like Miami but everywhere ), aquifer destruction, rampant fracking earthquakes, more powerful and numerous storms, mass migration events etc.

Look, you don't need to persuade me, you have to persuade them.

They're concerned about the entire planet's health and the idea that our greatest concern should be increased surveillance of Muslim Americans isn't persuasive.

They believe voting for Hillary or the GOP ensures humanity's demise. "Incrementalism and pragmatism" are way too little, too late.

You obviously haven't volunteered for Bernie Sanders at one of his campaign offices. I've now volunteered in my IL town, Kenosha WI and Milwaukee - this is a very common point spanning every age group. Hell, yesterday I was paired with a 76 yr old retired schoolteacher to canvass and her #1 issue is saving the planet. #2 is ensuring safe water supplies (no fracking), #3 is ensuring the safety and purity of our food sources (hates Monsanto ).

[MFM008]

31. enjoy 4 to 8 years of Republicans

all 3 branches
the GOP.
They will own this country.
They will destroy this planet.
Probably start another war somewhere. Hell if its Trump we might nuke Germany or something.
We need to go back to hating republicans.
STAT.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

35. Agreed

[revbones]

46. Principles = selfish and childish. Got it. nt

[Jackie Wilson Said]

49. Those principles wont help women who are self aborting or 11 million deportees.

[revbones]

50. Yeah, voting your principles means 11 million deportees and self-abortions. Got it. nt

[ladjf]

62. Good translation of their "political speak". nt

[basselope]

5. The number is higher than 1 in 4.

Look, maybe it is just the circle I run in and the people I talk to.. but I only know of 1 Bernie supporter who would stoop to voting for Clinton.

My freaking parents, who are LIFE LONG DEMOCRATS have have told me they plan to sit out the election entirely and not vote if Hillary is the democratic nominee. They are right in her wheelhouse of voters.. older, New Yorkers, but she's not getting them. Too much baggage, too much capitulation. The younger voters.. they see Clinton as the enemy... why? Because she is the embodiment of the establishment that they want to go away.

[Arugula Latte]

7. The young voters I know love Bernie and despise Hillary

without exception.

[ladjf]

64. Yes, and the gap is widening. Bernie is giving them hope. Everyone knows that Hillary not "change

her spots". Her net worth will continue to climb at astronomical speed. Nothing, that is NOTHING, will be done that actually
improves the lives of anyone other than the super rich, who are currently the 'ringmasters" of the circus we call Government.

Before his death, Robert Kennedy said that it is the young people who will do what it takes to make the changes that have to be made to clean up or Government and begin to level the odds for the "non-rich".

[Jackie Wilson Said]

15. I dont doubt there are a great deal of people who simply arent sophisticated or

learned enough to understand just how bad that decision will be.

Bernie will try and educate his supporters, but I think you are right that many will say no, no matter what, since they didn't get what they wanted.

Sorry to sound like I am criticizing them, but either they are guilty of these things or they are republicans.

[basselope]

16. They understand far better than you realize.

They are looking at the long term, rather than the short.

Clinton = a long term disaster for the country, because it maintains democratic status quo.

The democratic party is currently sick and needs intervention.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

17. So the women and minorities and immigrants short term issues to be damned!

[basselope]

37. Damned if they do.. damned if they don't.

Do you REALLY believe Clinton gives a damn about these groups or is going to make a single positive step for them?

According to her very own logic, she can't because she won't be able to get anything through congress.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

39. So Hillary seeks to deport 11 million people? She will put Muslims under scrutiny and deport

them and not let them in the country?

She is going to appoint SC justices who will overturn Roe?

Really?

She is going to appoint SC justice who wont fix VRA?

You are either acting emotionally or somewhere along the line you got some REAL bad info.

[basselope]

44. NONE OF IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN.

11 Million people are NOT being deported. Ain't gonna happen no matter who gets in.

IF a GOP person gets in, they will replace Scalia with another Scalia and the court won't change, so nothing will change... that is assuming they leave the seat open, which they likely won't. They are going to put Obama's nominee in and take this issue off the table, b/c it is an issue they lose on and they KNOW IT.

And no, I don't trust her on her SC picks either, she might put someone in who winds up turning against us.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

47. You are a misinformed voter. Your comments about the SC prove that.

[basselope]

78. No, I am quite well informed. Far more that you I would say.

[ladjf]

66. Very astute post. nt

[revbones]

55. Yeah, those that don't agree with you just "simply arent sophisticated" nt

[hellofromreddit]

70. Many of them are republicans r independents who normally lean republican

Arguments based on the idea that a republican victory is unthinkable won't carry much water with them.

It's not that they're stupid, misguided, or self-destructive. They simply do not agree with your premise.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

71. If they are repubs, they are very misguided and self destructive, but your defense of them is

interesting.

[hellofromreddit]

72. Yes, I'll defend those with whom I disagree

It's an important part of building support for the things we do agree on within a democracy.

That's how it works.

[choie]

77. Why is it so difficult for you to understand

That people are goddamn sick of electing people who are going to continue the status quo. It literally makes them ill to vote against their ideals. People have been voting for the lesser of two evils since Bill Clinton was nominated...and how have things improved? They haven't.. We have lost our way even further and in the meantime we've killed a million plus innocent people, have almost always been on the wrong side of foreign affairs, have citizens who are homeless, don't have enough food or medical care.

And every time there's an election, many Democrats say "yes, but look what will happen if a Republican gets in.." At some point, for some people, that threat will no longer prevent them from electing somebody who doesnt lie, isn't beholden to interests that are detrimental to our Democracy and who wants to move forward. You may think that's childish or selfish, but that's what is happening - and the blame should fall at the feet of politicians like the Clintons. Repugs are evil, but they are honest and upfront about it. Dens like the Clintons who lie about being progressive, are not.

[Buddyblazon]

81. Listen...I'm 43...

and have been a registered dem since the age of 18. I have voted dem in every election since. Every GE. Every midterm.

I will continue to vote for progressive candidates. Regardless of the outcome of the primaries I will vote for Bernie. Even if I have to write it in.

As a liberal, and as a 12 year member of DU, it's a dream come true that someone that has values so close to mine is running. And he'll get my support in the GE whether he wins the dem nomination or not.

And as a lifelong dem, I could never vote for a republican...and that includes Hillary....a republican in Dems clothing.

You go on your shamefest. The fact that you could vote for a republican like Hillary makes me question your so called roots as a democrat.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

82. And while you insist on your requirements, women will die in self abortions, SC will

all but eliminate voting by anyone but white property owners (pay attention please)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027744423

And much more.

If the GOP takes the WH this country will be unrecognizable in 4 years.

And as each passing day and assault of the citizens happens you can sit there and tell us why it is worth it.

[Buddyblazon]

83. Oh just stop...

seriously. You sound absurd.

I understand your concerns. But the sky will not open up and swallow us whole if I don't vote for Hillary. And your sky is falling shouts aren't going to make me vote for her anymore than before you claimed them.

Take a deep breath and get a grip. The world will continue on without my vote for Hillary.

And if my vote is what's going to cause you so much lament...time to reassess your life.

[BillZBubb]

29. Anecdotal, I know, but my situation is the same.

Right now at least, no Sanders supporter I know would go near Clinton. That bridge has been Bern'ed.

[MFM008]

33. wonderful

well you guys will show the rest of us wont you.
Why do you "stoop" to vote Clinton?
Arent we all democrats?
Don't we want the GOP to LOSE or each other?

[basselope]

42. I am an independent

Have been since 1992 and the democratic party nominated a corporatist, who preceded to be everything I feared he would be.. someone who would aid in dismantling the regulations that protected us from corporations.

Telecommunications act of 1996 is what we have to thank for media consolidation we have today. NAFTA, Glass Steegal, Welfare "reform", the prison industrial complex all got their legs under Bill Clinton.

I came back to the democrats briefly in 2003/4 to support Howard Dean. (Although I did vote for Gore in 2000 and spent many hours on picket lines in his defense, I was a registered independent). But, then.. they again chose the weakest of the weak in John Kerry and I wouldn't stoop to voting for him either.

So, no, we are not ALL democrats. I am a proud independent who has returned to this party for one reason and one reason only.. Bernie Sanders and hope that the democratic party can become what it ONCE WAS.

Clinton is the antithesis of that. She represents everything that is wrong.. the capitulation, the coporitization, the bowing to special interests.

Yes, its US vs THEM, but she is part of THEM.

[ladjf]

69. There are different types groups of Democrats. Many of us are thoroughly dissappointed with what is

now called the "Established Democrats". For many of us, they offer no hope for improvement of a terrible set of problems.

[CharlotteVale]

8. K&R

[Jefferson23]

26. Recommend. K&R

[FreakinDJ]

27. Ain't Life a _________ Hillary

So now we know why the full on Mud Slinging Campaign by Hillary

[merrily]

28. Another poll said 1/3 of Sanders' supporters would not support Hillary if he is not the nominee.

[Land of Enchantment]

48. Wonder what the numbers will be when that big, fat indictment rolls around..nt

[Califonz]

65. "Fitzmas" was a bit of a letdown...

From "Fitzmas" to... "Comeyday" ?

[factfinder_77]

52. And the methodology says..

497 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within 4.4 percentage points.. The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations.

[SoCalMusicLover]

60. Methodology?

Methodology means NOTHING right now. The election is still 7 months away.

Those #'s will shrink. The media will make sure of that. All it takes is for 1 or 2 states currently in the D column to switch, and that 497 total will disappear.

If Hillary is the nominee, it will be a race within a few percentage points at most. Certainly enough for either side to steal the election. I think anyone expecting a landslide with Hillary are wrong.

[SoCalMusicLover]

59. Bernie Supporter Who Will Vote Democratic In November

But if you think I'm "enthusiastic" about it, you're completely wrong.

I'm certainly not going to be going around trying to get others to support her. I probably won't espouse my support either, since I really would not be thrilled should she be the candidate.

All of those supporting Ms Clinton are being naive if they think there won't be a LARGE % of the population who will NEVER EVER vote for her. That is why I think she could lose the General Election.

But at the very least, her presence will create the horse race the media is looking for. I seriously doubt she will hold a wide margin over either Trump/Cruz or whomever the repubs put up.

[dubyadiprecession]

68. It's too little too late.

[silvershadow]

74. Says someone who has 0% chance of serving on a jury. nt