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In 2010 Gallup Overestimated The Republican Generic Ballot Advantage By A Mere 250%
That said, if we factor out the undecided and calculate the Republican percentage of the two-party vote for each survey, most capture the likely final result (53%) within their respective margins of error (adjusted slightly to account for the missing undecided voters). The most prominent exception is the Gallup Poll. The Republican share of the two-party vote predicted by their survey (58%) will likely miss the actual result by five percentage points, falling just outside the expected range of variation (55% to 61%). Gallup's error on the margin will likely be its biggest since it started asking the generic vote question 60 years ago.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/03/how-did-the-polls-do_n_778216.html
