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DanTex

(20,709 posts)
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 12:04 PM Mar 2016

Re: Trump's going to beat Hillary!!!11!11

Whenever you hear this, the most important thing to remember is that up until two days ago, the very same people were promising that Bernie was going to be the nominee. They predicted that Hillary could only win in confederate states. And before that, they predicted that AA voters were going to be cured of their Stockholm Syndrome by Cornel West, and that Bernie would triumph on Super Tuesday. And before that they predicted that he would win Iowa -- and even after he had already lost Iowa, they still insisted that he won. For months before that they insisted that random sampling polls were corporatist propaganda, and the "will of the people" spoke through clickbait polls and facebook likes.

So, needless to say, the predictive track-record of Hillary-bashers ranks somewhere in the neighborhood of Bill Kristol and Dick Morris. IMO, they should stick to predicting things like whether the sun will rise tomorrow, where I think they'd have at least a 75% shot of being right. But if you're looking for GE predictions, the last place to go is people who have just been proven wrong over and over and over.

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Gothmog

(145,129 posts)
13. Democrats would be insane to nominate Sanders
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 01:51 PM
Mar 2016

Dana Milbank has some good comments on general election match up polls https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html?hpid=hp_opinions-for-wide-side_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

Sanders and his supporters boast of polls showing him, on average, matching up slightly better against Trump than Clinton does. But those matchups are misleading: Opponents have been attacking and defining Clinton for a quarter- century, but nobody has really gone to work yet on demonizing Sanders.

Watching Sanders at Monday night’s Democratic presidential forum in Des Moines, I imagined how Trump — or another Republican nominee — would disembowel the relatively unknown Vermonter.


The first questioner from the audience asked Sanders to explain why he embraces the “socialist” label and requested that Sanders define it “so that it doesn’t concern the rest of us citizens.”

Sanders, explaining that much of what he proposes is happening in Scandinavia and Germany (a concept that itself alarms Americans who don’t want to be like socialized Europe), answered vaguely: “Creating a government that works for all of us, not just a handful of people on the top — that’s my definition of democratic socialism.”

But that’s not how Republicans will define socialism — and they’ll have the dictionary on their side. They’ll portray Sanders as one who wants the government to own and control major industries and the means of production and distribution of goods. They’ll say he wants to take away private property. That wouldn’t be fair, but it would be easy. Socialists don’t win national elections in the United States .

Sanders on Monday night also admitted he would seek massive tax increases — “one of the biggest tax hikes in history,” as moderator Chris Cuomo put it — to expand Medicare to all. Sanders, this time making a comparison with Britain and France, allowed that “hypothetically, you’re going to pay $5,000 more in taxes,” and declared, “W e will raise taxes, yes we will.” He said this would be offset by lower health-insurance premiums and protested that “it’s demagogic to say, oh, you’re paying more in taxes.

Well, yes — and Trump is a demagogue.

Sanders also made clear he would be happy to identify Democrats as the party of big government and of wealth redistribution. When Cuomo said Sanders seemed to be saying he would grow government “bigger than ever,” Sanders didn’t quarrel, saying, “P eople want to criticize me, okay,” and “F ine, if that’s the criticism, I accept it.”

Sanders accepts it, but are Democrats ready to accept ownership of socialism, massive tax increases and a dramatic expansion of government? If so, they will lose.

Match up polls are worthless because these polls do not measure what would happen to Sanders in a general election where Sanders is very vulnerable to negative ads.

firebrand80

(2,760 posts)
3. People have a way of convincing themselves of things
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 12:10 PM
Mar 2016

I don't think anyone REALLY believed Bernie would be the nominee any more than they believe that Trump will be President. They're just hoping Hillary loses so they can say "I told you so."

(This attitude reflects a tremendous amount of while privilege, but that's another discussion for another day)

 

JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)
4. Remember when they thought...
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 12:11 PM
Mar 2016

Bernie was going to crush her at debates in October and she would never recover?

She turned out to win them all.

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
15. NO FAIR!!! The debates were stacked against him! And he won, anyway!!!
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 01:56 PM
Mar 2016


We're into the "Nobody else likes you either!!!" stage of the juvenile antics.
 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
6. I'll go there: when people say "Clinton can't beat Trump" it's wishful thinking.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 12:14 PM
Mar 2016

These same people who try to threaten us with Trump winning then say that Trump isn't a big enough of concern for them to vote for Clinton, so they'll just write Bernie's name in.

Blue_Adept

(6,399 posts)
10. Further reality -
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 12:16 PM
Mar 2016

No matter how things go, the final months of the campaign in the general will show a tightening of the polls and the rhetoric will rise of just how bad things will be of Trump wins and people will have to make some real hard choices. I can see the usual small amount sitting it out while most will vote to preserve as oppose to set aflame.

Plus the whole politics is local and they won't sit out questions, governorships, and other seats being filled and will be in the booth. And at that point there will be the resigned vote.

 

Marr

(20,317 posts)
9. No, the 'same people' did not say all those things.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 12:16 PM
Mar 2016

You present a cartoon picture of the world, and throw tomatoes at it.

This is silly.

johnnyrocket

(1,773 posts)
16. I see it more that Trump is a shitstorm, and a loose cannon....
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 01:58 PM
Mar 2016

...there will be a lot if residual damage he will do, before all is said and done.

And I absolutely DO NOT take this fall as a cakewalk. You think ordinary politics is hardball and in the dirt. This campaign will be a morass of filth and evil no one has ever known.

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