Nate Silver on likely voter gap

[octoberlib]

Tweet from Nate just now / Nate Silver ?@fivethirtyeight
If there's only a "normal" likely voter gap (helps GOP by ~2 points), Romney's in some trouble. Most polls show it larger, however.
I
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

[Ztolkins]

1. So if it's larger, then Romney isn't in trouble?

and by "gap", he's referring to gap between RV and LV?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Correct

The larger the gap the better it is for Robme.

[octoberlib]

4. Crap, I read it wrong nt

[progressivebydesign]

8. just remember, the Likely Voter thing is manufactured by assumptions on who votes.

And each election seems to blow that model out of the water, as the demographics in America change AND the ground game by the Democrats gets better and better.

[Bad Thoughts]

3. The difference between actual and potential support

If there is a small gap and Obama is in the lead with RV, than it is easier to erase romney advantages with LV. It's much easier, then, to reach one's potential support with the gap is small.

[Ztolkins]

5. Anyone know what the gap is, roughly?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. In Gallup It's Five Points

According to Gallup he's winning RVs 49-46 and losing LVs 49-47.


Expect it to narrow to two...

[progressivebydesign]

7. "Likely voter" is based on an outdated model. Same as 2008.

The pollsters in their offices in Virginia, just can't fathom an 89 year old black woman, with a walker, standing 10 hours in line, in the rain, to vote for the President. Or an entire hispanic family in Arizona, voting together for the first time. Or five roommates in college, offering rides to friends to go vote at lunchtime in Wisconsin.

If the typical "likely" voter aka white woman in her 50s in an upper middle class neighborhood with plenty of parking spaces and voting machines, and her 60 year old husband, usually conservatives, vote in numbers that overtake the NEW likely voters, then Romney wins.