Gallup 10/12/12: Romney 49 (+1) Obama 47 (-) LV

[dennis4868]

Among registered voters its: Obama 48 (-) Romney 46 (-)

Obama Job Approval: 50(-2)/44(+1)

[budkin]

1. Obama is up +2 in Registered Voters, still a 7 day rolling so includes last Friday

Which still had the post debate numbers

[woolldog]

2. grrrrrrrrr

[hrmjustin]

3. it won't be till next week that we see the Biden Bump.

[FBaggins]

13. We shouldnt' have to wait that long.

I caution you not to expect too much. As with misplaced hopes tied to improving jobs numbers, a VP debate doesn't impact the electorate as much as the main events.

Having said that... tonight's polling sample (in 7-day rolling averages) replaces the Friday post-debate figures that many thought were Romney's single best day. A good day for us replacing a great day for them should show up.

[regnaD kciN]

28. True, last Friday will drop out, but...

...the fact that Obama's approval has been dropping in the (three-day) tracker of that topic suggests that the last few days haven't been all that good.

Still, it's worth noting that, when you compare Gallup to last week, they made the LV/RV switch three days ago, so the relevant figure would really be O+2 RV for comparison's sake.

[treestar]

16. Is it time yet for a bump due to the unemployment rate going down?

Did that come out Friday?

[VirginiaTarheel]

21. There was no bump for good jobs report

So I doubt there will be one based on VP debate. Obama's debate performance caused the collapse and only can his next performances undo the collapse.

[budkin]

31. The "fixed" job numbers story got all the play

So it nullified it. It was BS but a good strategy by the cons.

[FBaggins]

35. Yes there was.

It just wasn't very big.

And that's just what we should have expected compared to a presidential debate with tens of millions of people watching.

It's just that there were some here who kept posting that the race was now over... 7.8% trumps everything and the single issue that Romney had to work with (the poor economy) was no longer in play.

[VirginiaTarheel]

37. Also the numbers were released on a Friday before holiday

Many people are not paying attention to serious news on a Friday. They are in weekend mode

[brush]

4. Hedline

Am I reading something wrong? The hedline doesn't match the post.

[dennis4868]

6. why?

among Likely voters (LV) Romney has a 2 point lead and among registered voters Obama has a 2 point lead...what's the problem?

[Maximumnegro]

33. Because LV is based on the pollster's 'opinion'

of what the voting electorate will be. So they are guessing, assuming GOP enthusiasm now trumps Dem by a big margin. We all know what they say about opinions.

[progressivebydesign]

40. Thanks, I've been trying to point that out. the LV thing is a polling ASSUMPTION.

and the MSM has been absolutely criminal in hiding the fact that the President is drawing over 30k people at a time, and Romney is getting like 6k, if he's lucky, and they're not enthusiastic. Also, bumper stickers, signs, etc., Obama is leading by a wide margin.

[Shivering Jemmy]

5. Looks like o underperformed

Yesterday with RV.


See what happens tomorrow

[Mass]

7. What is even more puzzling is that they dropped the data for 10/4 (the day after the debate)

Every other poll has shown an improvement when these data were dropped (including IDB/TIPP). For today's data to be worse than yesterday, it would mean that today's polling numbers were worse than the day after the debate. That makes no sense.

[neverland_pirate]

8. It makes sense because polls have noise

Even if a pollster makes two polls the same day, with the same sample number, the results will probably be different, because of noise.

[Blaukraut]

9. Wasn't 10/4 the day OF the debate?

If so, then we should start seeing an improvement in the numbers starting Sunday, when the two worst Obama days (5 and 6 Oct) drop off.

[Blaukraut]

11. nvm, in was the day after the debate n/t

[Mass]

12. No, it was the 3rd.

May be the data from the 4th did not yet reflect the beating he took for this debate. Let's wait until tomorrow.

[dennis4868]

10. I think...

that first debate hurt Obama much more than we think. I know I will get bashed here for saying that. Take it easy on me...I have been a DUer since DU opened its doors. I'm not some troll. But Obama did not look presidential and Romney got a lot of people to believe his lies and flip flops. My feeling is, Obama may lose the popularity vote but win the election because he will most likely take Ohio (assuming Obama wins all his Blue states).

[Mass]

14. I dont disagree.

The main question is to know whether it is temporary or more permanent.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. Some Folks Were Comparing The Debate To A Black Swan Event

I thought that was ludicrous but...

However the damage is not irreparable. It's up to President Obama to fix it.

[WI_DEM]

19. What hurt even more than Obama's debate performance...

was the constant talk about it in the media. This is how the media frames the debate and influences public opinon.

[dennis4868]

23. I agree...

Up until the debate Obama controlled the narrative of the campaign...now it's the other way around. Romney has the control and somehow we need him to drop the ball...we need a very strong debate performance from President Obama and hope as many people watch debate #2 as debate #1 was watched. Right now my hope is that we hold onto OH and VA and the game is over no matter what Romney does in Florida and some other swing states.

[regnaD kciN]

30. Gallup didn't show a big drop in that Thursday's numbers...

It was on Friday where the bottom dropped out in their interviews.

Still, it looks like Obama recovered well Sunday-Tuesday, but the last two days have been poor for him (based on the drip in his approval rating). We'll see if the debate moves more Democratic RVs into the LV category, and thus helps move the needle.

[TroyD]

15. This is why we're not out of the woods yet

Until Obama re-takes the National lead for Romney, we cannot take anything for granted.

And it was one week ago that the Jobs Report came out, but other than some initial excitement, it seems to be getting overshadowed.

It needs to be talked about EVERY DAY how Obama kept his promise to get unemployment below 8% and improve the economy!

They wanted an election about the economy - give them one!

[WI_DEM]

17. For some reason I think Wed this week was a bad day for Obama

as the three day job numbers began to go down that day. Certainly the constant harping of the MSM on the debate hasn't helped. I'm hopeful Biden will help.

[neverland_pirate]

20. Thanks for your concern n/t

[fugop]

24. Just keep trolling!

It's pathetic.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I Don't Know Why The Mods Permit It

If one of us did that at his true web home we would be ZOTTED or whatever they call it.

[writes3000]

18. Thumbs up! Obama is going to win this damn election! He already is!

Gallup's switched voter screen doesn't mean squat to me. More registered voters want Obama. Obama is even stronger in the swings states.

They are underestimated Democrats enthusiasm and Obama's GOTV efforts not to mention third party candidates that will take votes from Romney.

[RedSpartan]

22. Remember, though...

Supposedly, Romney's best days were the three days after the debate. Those won't fully drop off until Sunday.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. But How Did The President Bump Up To 50-45 The Other Day With Those Included?

.

[boxman15]

34. He might have had a couple really good days right before the debate.

Just speculation, of course. It's impossible to know.

[ProSense]

36. Exactly. Look at the RV trend

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

Gallup had it tied at 47 percent Sept. 15 to Sept 21.

It climbed to a high Obama 50, Romney 44 Sept 25 to Oct 1

It was Obama 50, Romney 45 Oct 3 to Oct 9.

Now it's Obama 48, Romney 46 for both Oct 4 to Oct 10 and Oct 5 to Oct 11.

[Maximumnegro]

29. I'll take those numbers

If that's the best Romney has to show this week then that means he has has not been building steam. He needs real momentum and he doesn't have it. Obama at 50% approval = no dice for Romney. But if people want to wig out anyway, oh well.

[progressivebydesign]

39. Folks do NOT be fooled by the Likely Voter thing. It's a different methodology than earlier polls.

Does NOT mean a bounce for Romney in the truest sense. They were NOT reporting LV much before the last stretch of the campaigns. THat is what happens. They just poll everyone.. then, the polling firms have their own methodology for figuring out who a "likely voter" is. It's not simple a question of "will you vote?" It's more complex.

Do NOT be fooled by this. these are NOT the same numbers from 2 weeks ago. there is a shift in how it's being reported to you.

But what you SHOULD worry about is getting people to VOTE!!! We will win this, if people vote. Period. Romney is not suddenly connecting with everyone, but the polling firms are changing how they report it. GOTV!!!