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Fri Feb 26, 2016, 01:20 PM

Polls and Predictions Democratic Primaries through March 1st

Last edited Fri Feb 26, 2016, 11:54 PM - Edit history (1)

The following are the results of the latest polls (source: realclearpolitics.com) and the projections of Nate Silver (source fivethirtyeight.com) for the Democratic primaries scheduled for 2/27/16 (South Carolina) and the twelve primaries scheduled for 3/1/16.


Link: Polls and Predictions Democratic Primaries through March 1st

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Arrow 20 replies Author Time Post
Reply Polls and Predictions Democratic Primaries through March 1st (Original post)
CajunBlazer Feb 2016 OP
CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #1
Beacool Feb 2016 #2
Tiggeroshii Feb 2016 #3
Godhumor Feb 2016 #4
CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #5
Tiggeroshii Feb 2016 #8
CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #13
Tiggeroshii Feb 2016 #14
CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #15
Tiggeroshii Feb 2016 #16
CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #17
Tiggeroshii Feb 2016 #18
CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #19
MaggieD Feb 2016 #12
CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #6
Persondem Feb 2016 #7
zappaman Feb 2016 #9
CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #10
MaggieD Feb 2016 #11
LexVegas Feb 2016 #20

Response to CajunBlazer (Original post)

Fri Feb 26, 2016, 02:29 PM

1. Kick

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Response to CajunBlazer (Original post)

Fri Feb 26, 2016, 02:40 PM

2. If Nate Silver's is correct, it's going to be a banner day for Hillary.

He has no predictions yet for Alabama, Colorado and Minnesota, but Hillary is ahead in the polls in all three. The only state that he has predicted with certainty that will go to Sanders is VT. There are no polls on American Samoa, but they will only send 10 delegates.

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Response to Beacool (Reply #2)

Fri Feb 26, 2016, 04:06 PM

3. His prediction if they are tied in the national polls is that Bernie will take 7 states out of 12

 

He is slightly ahead in the national average

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #3)

Fri Feb 26, 2016, 04:25 PM

4. Not according to 538

You might want to take a look at the 538 aggregation of national numbers.

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #3)

Fri Feb 26, 2016, 05:39 PM

5. Link: 538 National Democratic Primary Polls

You're badly mistaken.

And currently according to FiveThirtyEight.com

Clinton 49.6% Sanders 39.0% - Clinton +10.6%

To see the aggregation of national polls on Nate Silver's website click on the link below:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/national-primary-polls/democratic/

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Response to CajunBlazer (Reply #5)

Fri Feb 26, 2016, 08:03 PM

8. well shoot.

 

Looks like you are right. I'll take your polling aggregate and raise you an actual super Tuesday win(as in a majority of delegates, not states). Loser owes winner 538 random emojis as an OP

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #8)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 01:24 AM

13. So you you are going to bet me that Bernie takes Vermont?

No deal!

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Response to CajunBlazer (Reply #13)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 01:52 AM

14. Bwaaha noo

 

But I will bet he takes it with no less than 90% of the vote! and that he takes a majority of all pledged delegates up on super Tuesday )

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #14)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 11:00 AM

15. I'm on for second part

Last edited Sat Feb 27, 2016, 06:52 PM - Edit history (1)

I'm on for second part: He (Bernie) takes a majority of all pledged delegates up on super Tuesday. You see I only bet on sure things, or those that have at least a 95% chance of happening. The chances of Hillary of winning at least two delegates more than Bernie in SC are in that range.

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Response to CajunBlazer (Reply #15)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 06:36 PM

16. You're on!

 

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #16)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 09:07 PM

17. You lose

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Response to CajunBlazer (Reply #17)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 09:22 PM

18. ... It's not Tuesday yet

 

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #18)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 09:37 PM

19. Okay, guess I am reading the writing on the wall yet invisible to you

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Response to Beacool (Reply #2)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 12:02 AM

12. I'm looking forward to it

 

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Response to CajunBlazer (Original post)

Fri Feb 26, 2016, 06:02 PM

6. Kick for visability

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Response to CajunBlazer (Original post)

Fri Feb 26, 2016, 07:08 PM

7. Here's hoping Silver's prediction are golden. K & R nt

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Response to CajunBlazer (Original post)

Fri Feb 26, 2016, 08:04 PM

9. Looks like we have a dead heat on our hands!

#berniemath

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Response to zappaman (Reply #9)

Fri Feb 26, 2016, 11:54 PM

10. I hope your kidding

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Response to CajunBlazer (Reply #10)

Fri Feb 26, 2016, 11:56 PM

11. Well if you use #berniemath anything is possible

 

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Response to CajunBlazer (Original post)

Sat Feb 27, 2016, 09:38 PM

20. Virtual tie! nt

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