Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
Fri Feb 26, 2016, 01:20 PM Feb 2016

Polls and Predictions Democratic Primaries through March 1st

Last edited Fri Feb 26, 2016, 11:54 PM - Edit history (1)

The following are the results of the latest polls (source: realclearpolitics.com) and the projections of Nate Silver (source fivethirtyeight.com) for the Democratic primaries scheduled for 2/27/16 (South Carolina) and the twelve primaries scheduled for 3/1/16.


Link: Polls and Predictions – Democratic Primaries through March 1st

20 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Polls and Predictions Democratic Primaries through March 1st (Original Post) CajunBlazer Feb 2016 OP
Kick CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #1
If Nate Silver's is correct, it's going to be a banner day for Hillary. Beacool Feb 2016 #2
His prediction if they are tied in the national polls is that Bernie will take 7 states out of 12 Tiggeroshii Feb 2016 #3
Not according to 538 Godhumor Feb 2016 #4
Link: 538 National Democratic Primary Polls CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #5
well shoot. Tiggeroshii Feb 2016 #8
So you you are going to bet me that Bernie takes Vermont? CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #13
Bwaaha noo Tiggeroshii Feb 2016 #14
I'm on for second part CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #15
You're on! Tiggeroshii Feb 2016 #16
You lose CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #17
... It's not Tuesday yet Tiggeroshii Feb 2016 #18
Okay, guess I am reading the writing on the wall yet invisible to you CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #19
I'm looking forward to it MaggieD Feb 2016 #12
Kick for visability CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #6
Here's hoping Silver's prediction are golden. K & R nt Persondem Feb 2016 #7
Looks like we have a dead heat on our hands! zappaman Feb 2016 #9
I hope your kidding CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #10
Well if you use #berniemath anything is possible MaggieD Feb 2016 #11
Virtual tie! nt LexVegas Feb 2016 #20

Beacool

(30,260 posts)
2. If Nate Silver's is correct, it's going to be a banner day for Hillary.
Fri Feb 26, 2016, 02:40 PM
Feb 2016

He has no predictions yet for Alabama, Colorado and Minnesota, but Hillary is ahead in the polls in all three. The only state that he has predicted with certainty that will go to Sanders is VT. There are no polls on American Samoa, but they will only send 10 delegates.

 

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)
3. His prediction if they are tied in the national polls is that Bernie will take 7 states out of 12
Fri Feb 26, 2016, 04:06 PM
Feb 2016

He is slightly ahead in the national average

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
5. Link: 538 National Democratic Primary Polls
Fri Feb 26, 2016, 05:39 PM
Feb 2016

You're badly mistaken.

And currently according to FiveThirtyEight.com

Clinton 49.6% Sanders 39.0% - Clinton +10.6%

To see the aggregation of national polls on Nate Silver's website click on the link below:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/national-primary-polls/democratic/

 

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)
8. well shoot.
Fri Feb 26, 2016, 08:03 PM
Feb 2016

Looks like you are right. I'll take your polling aggregate and raise you an actual super Tuesday win(as in a majority of delegates, not states). Loser owes winner 538 random emojis as an OP

 

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)
14. Bwaaha noo
Sat Feb 27, 2016, 01:52 AM
Feb 2016

But I will bet he takes it with no less than 90% of the vote! and that he takes a majority of all pledged delegates up on super Tuesday

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
15. I'm on for second part
Sat Feb 27, 2016, 11:00 AM
Feb 2016

Last edited Sat Feb 27, 2016, 06:52 PM - Edit history (1)

I'm on for second part: He (Bernie) takes a majority of all pledged delegates up on super Tuesday. You see I only bet on sure things, or those that have at least a 95% chance of happening. The chances of Hillary of winning at least two delegates more than Bernie in SC are in that range.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Polls and Predictions D...