2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAnyone else finding the media just a little coo-coo bananas lately?
Bernie Sanders 5 point loss to Clinton in Nevada (despite winning the Latino vote and coming from 30-40 points behind) might mark the end of his campaign.
Marco Rubio's 10 point loss to Trump in South Carolina and him SURGING and REVITALIZED. Proving he can compete.
Clinton and Bernie are tied in delegates.
Trump has a 60 delegate lead.
But if you listen to them, it is TRUMP who has everything to lose and for Clinton it seems like clear sailing.
dchill
(38,614 posts)their own breath.
NRaleighLiberal
(60,036 posts)frazzled
(18,402 posts)Long explanation here, about the entrance/exit polling (esp. at a caucus) versus what happened in Hispanic majority districts (which Clinton won). I only can quote a small portion of the article, but you should read the detailed explanation in the latter half of the article, which explains why entrance/exit polls are "not designed to yield very reliable estimates of the characteristics of small, geographically clustered demographic groups":
...
But there are a lot of reasons to question the findings from the polls. They have a small sample of precincts and voters, and they simply were not devised to provide precise estimates of the Hispanic vote.
The actual election returns in Las Vegass Clark County hint at a different story. Analyzed neighborhood by neighborhood, they suggest that Mrs. Clinton might have won the Hispanic vote by a comfortable margin. She won about 60 percent of delegates in heavily Hispanic areas, a result that calls the finding of the polling into question.
...
The Hispanic vote in Nevada is overwhelmingly concentrated in Clark County, home to Las Vegas. In particular, Hispanic voters are concentrated on the east side of the city, where they make up the vast majority of the population but only a slight majority of registered Democrats. (For a rough map, see this tweet.)
In the 76 precincts in Clark County where we believe that a plurality of registered Democrats are Hispanic, Mrs. Clinton defeated Mr. Sanders in the delegate count by a margin of 58 percent to 42 percent. In the smaller number of majority Hispanic precincts, she seemed to win about 60 percent of the delegates, and she won perhaps 65 percent of the delegates in the precincts where Hispanics appeared to be a particularly large share of registered Democrats. (For details on the estimates, see my note at the end of the article.)
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/22/upshot/why-clinton-not-sanders-probably-won-the-hispanic-vote-in-nevada.html?mabReward=CTM&action=click&pgtype=Homepage®ion=CColumn&module=Recommendation&src=rechp&WT.nav=RecEngine
basselope
(2,565 posts)Last edited Wed Feb 24, 2016, 11:21 AM - Edit history (1)
right. I'll stick with the experts, not the neeners.
basselope
(2,565 posts)The Clinton campaign used 30 year old discarded methods to come up with their analysis.
The ACTUAL experts show Sanders won the Latino vote quite handily.
frazzled
(18,402 posts)You give me a press release from the Sanders' campaign. That's not debunking, honey--that's called SPIN.
This is getting to be Sarah Palin-level reality flight.
basselope
(2,565 posts)Because it was drawn from Clinton's people.
The info I gave you was provided by a respected organization: William C. Velásquez Institute (WCVI)
frazzled
(18,402 posts)And since caucuses are different animals than electoral primaries, they are next to impossible to definitively codify. That was the point of the Times article: entrance/exit polls from caucuses are not dispositive with respect to clustered demographics.
Nothing has been "debunked." There are two competing theories.
basselope
(2,565 posts)The times piece is based on old discarded methodology.
completely 100% debunked.
Bernie won the Latino vote.
Just an indisputable fact
FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)Their propaganda will only intensify here on out. I guess we ain't seen nothin yet. Bernie will have to continue to speak to the people directly.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)The more money at stake, the more bananas.