Firewall!!! Firewall!... Firewall..... SQUIRRELSQUIRRELSQUIRRELSQUIRRELSQUIRREL!!!!!!!!!!!

[kristopher]

Note the national poll numbers assumed at the top

Bernie Sanders’s Path To The Nomination
Here are the states he needs to win.

By NATE SILVER
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanderss-path-to-the-nomination/

[Alfresco]

1. LOL

[kristopher]

3. Dug the dog

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

2. So, the projection for Nevada if they were 'tied' nationally, was +3.

And she got +4, it looks like. Sounds good to me. Lot closer to column 2 than column 1.

[kristopher]

4. I'm wondering about 2 what ifs...

What happens if the news media can no longer get away with keeping his message off the air?

What happens to that chart if his national numbers climb to +10 in the national polls?

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

5. A lot more people will be a lot more suspicious

about results that fall out for Clinton if he gets up to +10.

Even by the rolling averages, he's still down by 6-8% or so last I checked, so a 4% loss in a 'firewall' is actually extremely good news. If he keeps her to low double digits in SC, I'll be happy, if he loses by single digits, I'll be thrilled. But to be honest, I expect a blowout for her of roughly what the blowout for him was in New Hampshire. I've heard it's basically 50% AA vote, and she's still taking 75% or so of the black vote, to his 22% or so. So yeah, I expect her to win SC by probably 60-40 at the least, probably even a bit higher. But 50% AA vote is extremely atypical. There will be a few more states that are like that, but in most states, her AA advantage is only going to give her a few percent tops.

[kristopher]

6. I heard the latino vote went for bernie by +9

I don't think it wise to make to much of that, but the hispanic/latino population is the same size overall as AA.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

7. Bigger.

Latinos/Hispanic is 17%, AA 13%.

Hillary's still ahead because she's winning 75% of AA votes, while Bernie's only getting 53% of Hispanic votes so far. Bernie needs to cut into that AA margin more.

ETA ah, I see, a greater percentage of AA are eligible voters. Ok, that does make it basically 'equal'.