Could Bernie win by a 10 to 15 pts today ? Caucuses are new to NV. Only 10% of the voting eligible

[berniepdx420]

population came out to Caucus in 2008. The enthusiasm is definitely on Bernie's side. If a lot of new Bernie supporters come out to caucus they could tip the scales quite dramatically since such a small amount show up normally. That could explain why the focus is so much more on SC in the msm.. I think that is logical... thoughts ?

[vercetti2021]

1. Hmm

I think if he won by a large margin like that, then SC will be closer than people thought. Unlikely as it is, I think he'll take NV by 2 or 3 points.

[berniepdx420]

3. Yeah..that's what I was thinking till I read some articles about caucuses being new to NV

and only 10% participated... I think that fact makes a youth and new voter surge much more influential ... dang.. that would be so freaking awesome... is it me or does it seem quieter than normal from the clinton side tonight ..especially on a caucus eve ??

[6chars]

2. while anything is possible,

no political experts are predicting anything like that. if it happens, you may have a future as a pundit!

[berniepdx420]

4. that's funny.... it's logical though ? what's the weak part of the argument ?

[PatrickforO]

12. The pundits haven't gotten much right this season.

They and the establishment they represent dramatically misread the American people's anger at the status quo.

Like some on this post, I think it would be awesome of Bernie took NV by a wide margin, but I'm thinking more along the lines of a near tie with Bernie slightly ahead.

[Fumesucker]

5. Sanders has significantly outperformed almost all the polls, beyond margin of error on many

So I guess we will know on Sunday.

[Peace Patriot]

7. Good point!

[Peace Patriot]

6. We don't have much info about NV. The reporting here & in the Corpse Press...

...hasn't been as informative as it was on Iowa and New Hampshire. We know that he came from way behind and is now tied in NV, and that he is Mr. Momentum. Momentum is all, to jump from tied to a 10 pt or 15 pt win. His momentum is based on factual hard ground, such as IA and New Hampshire, on phenomenal fundraising from small donations, on recent national polls showing that he would beat all Republicans and Clinton would lose to most or win by much less, on his sky-high favorables, her extremely low favorables, on the measured trust issue (he's very high, she's very low), on crowd sizes--all measurable things that, added together, are impressive--but I also have a feeling that the Universe is aligned on this matter: It's time for an American revolution; it's way, way overdue; and no matter how high the obstacles erected by the fatcats, history is very much on our side. Our country is SO UNBALANCED, it MUST correct itself.

My metaphor is the recently discovered gravitational wave (that scientists are saying is the most important discovery, ever): a low rumble starting a billion years ago and just now hitting our detectors, at a time in human evolution when a) we have detectors, and b) we can understand what we are detecting.

The Bernie revolution is just now hitting the detectors, and it may well be the most important political event in our history, because what it may mean is that the democracy passed down to us from our Founders IS STILL ALIVE!

Glory be!

That's how *I* feel about it. Don't know if enough Nevadans feel that way yet. We're about to find out.

[Ken Burch]

8. Comes down to ground game.

If we can get that working in NV(make sure we get everybody to the caucus sites, make sure we have a neutral vote-counting process)anything is possible.

[magical thyme]

9. if he wins big I'll be thrilled, but I think it's extremely unlikely

and I'm really not interested in trying to set up false expectations.

[berniepdx420]

10. just had a thought and shared... thanks for your thoughts

[AtomicKitten]

11. Polling is dodgy but he consistently overperforms, so it's possible.

[JI7]

13. the republican primary in south carolina is today also

[berniepdx420]

15. Can't really follow the repubs.. I am allergic to racist, bigots and warmongers ..

[Renew Deal]

14. Nice try Mr. 420

Trying to frame the "comeback" for Hillary... not gonna work.. we are taking our fight to all 50 states.. we will make you defend your positions while presenting ours to the People... Good Luck

[berniepdx420]

16. What's your point ? Why did you plagiarize a post of mine .. wtf

[Renew Deal]

19. A little good natured ribbing

You said the same thing to me in the 60% thread. I hit the number right on BTW.

[berniepdx420]

17. I know your nervous .. you should be

[Gothmog]

20. College Republicans voting for the weakest possible candidate may help Sanders

The Nevada college republicans are going to cheat and vote in the Democratic caucuses for Sanders because he is the weakest possible Democratic nominee http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/nevada-republicans-eye-electoral-mischief-dem-caucuses

Ralston noted yesterday that “organized” Republican efforts to intervene in the Democratic contest are now underway. This includes College Republicans urging members to support the “socialist” in order to help the GOP candidate “prevail” in November, and coincided with work from a prominent conservative activist in Nevada encouraging Republicans to intervene with a similar message.

Here is the flyer that the Nevada college republicans are using to encourage Nevada college republicans to vote for the socialist



Again and again, it is clear that the GOP and their affiliates want Sanders to be the nominee because he is the weakest possible nominee

[oasis]

22. Of all the low down dirty dogs.....

they take the cake.

[firebrand80]

21. So far, turnout has been down compared to 2008

So, unless you think there's something different going on in NV compared to IA and NH, I would doubt it.

Now that I think about it, GOP rhetoric on immigration could drive up Latino turnout, but we don't yet know if that helps Bernie or Hillary.