More From Nate Silver Tonight

[Doctor Jack]

Via something called "twitter"

How much difference did the Pew poll make? We had Romney win % rising to 24.4% from 21.6% today. Without Pew, he'd have made no gain at all.


So the Pew poll really is a huge data point for Romney. But his polling today was pretty mediocre without it


I wonder if all of the people here that had heart attacks over Romney's today feel silly now?

[flamingdem]

1. no gain at all

let's just go with that!

[Doctor Jack]

3. Indeed

So much drama over one poll. A poll that was likely an outlier.

[Haywood Brothers]

19. That's for sure

Sometimes you get these flukey jumps -- Silver's analysis, thank goodness, is even-handed. His model works; I take comfort in his unaltered overall prediction for Obama.

[regnaD kciN]

4. But he DID have Pew, like it or not...

I'm really curious as to what we'll see at 538 tomorrow night, what with the Romney-in-lead PPP poll coming out, along with the shift to an LV model in Gallup tracking virtually guaranteeing that Obama's lead will be slashed if not entirely wiped-out. Will the transitory nature of those two be noted, or will they simply be considered valid data points?

[TroyD]

15. 'Romney-in-lead PPP poll coming out'

Romney will be in the lead in PPP?

[Iliyah]

18. What is the different between LV and RV?

Ya'think RV is the better.

[iemitsu]

2. i was pretty surprised to see the dramatic change

in the polls, during the time i fixed and ate dinner.
i left the computer and obama was up 5 points. i returned and romney was up 12.
my wife was upset by the news but i was unwilling to accept such a swing.
i'm glad to see this interpretation of pew's numbers.

[doc03]

5. Does Nate Silver have any record in previous elections? n/t

[Doctor Jack]

6. Extremely accurate

In the 2008 primaries, 2008 general election (president, house, senate, and governor), 2010 elections, and the 2012 republican primaries. He is extremely good at statistical analysis.

[doc03]

8. For what it is worth Intrade has Obama at 63.6% n/t

[TroyD]

14. I think Nate was less successful in 2010 than in 2008, yes? n/t

[Zen Democrat]

9. Yes. The most sterling track record in his premier year of 2008

He predicted every state correctly, with the exception of Indiana (1% win for Obama). He predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races. He's gone from Daily Kos to the NY Times.

[doc03]

10. That is encouraging news n/t

[patrice]

7. They don't feel silly, because the truth doesn't matter as much as political base building and

ideologies do to some people on "the Left" and on the Reich.

[MFM008]

11. thanks

im cutting the rope around my neck.

[Cha]

12. From what I've gathered the Pew Poll was found to be Skewed..

Well, let's look in Pew's documentation (linked above), particularly in a section entitled, "Patters of Voter Support, September-October."

Did Romney's debate performance pluck some Democratic support away from Obama? Nope. The president's lead is virtually unchanged within his own party, from 93-5 in September to 94-5 now.

Did Romney strengthen himself among Republicans? Hardly, these numbers shifted from 92-5 to 91-7.

Did Romney achieve a major breakthrough among Independents? Only if you consider a 2-3 point shift within each candidate major (from Obama leading 45-44 to Romney ahead 46-42).

<...>

In other words, we've learned something we should already have known. That if the electorate on Nov. 6 is 3 percentage points more

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/08/1141808/-Pew-Poll-states-the-obvious-If-actual-electorate-is-R-3-Obama-loses

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1496439

[TroyD]

13. Why should anyone feel silly, OP?

There is a lot at stake here, and people have the right to be nervous about the possibility of a pathological liar and sociopath becoming President.

Of course we shouldn't run screaming through the streets at the fact that Obama's numbers have come down, but neither should we laugh it off.

The next month needs to be mistake-free and a good one for Obama.

We don't want that vile individual on the other side making any more progress.

[zentrum]

16. Well said...

I wasn't able to sleep the night of the debate. There's way too much at stake.

We need a mistake-free month now.

[Tcbys]

17. We are still doomed...... :'(