Why did Clinton lose the initiative, again?

[Recursion]

This happened in 2008, too.

I was thinking about Paul Waldman's WaPo piece, and it keeps hitting home.

Either of those stories might be true. But right now, the Clinton campaign has a much bigger problem than the story it wants to tell about New Hampshire. That problem is this: the campaign has no story to tell the voters about Hillary Clinton and why she should be president.

Having a good story doesn’t guarantee you victory, but nobody becomes president without one. The story has to contain three simple elements. First, it explains what the problem is. Second, it explains what the solution is. And third, it explains why this candidate, and only this candidate, is the person who can bring the country from where it is now to where it ought to be.

I can make that sentence about all the other candidates (except Jeb!, oddly enough), from their campaigns:

Sanders: The 1% need to be taken down a notch
O'Malley: We need incremental evidence-based changes in healthcare and criminal justice (hey, it's not inspiring but it's honest)
Cruz: Godless liberal masses are threatening the Bible and the Constitution
Rubio: Washington is stuck in the 20th century; we need to modernize conservative government
Trump: America isn't as white as it used to be, and we should fix that
Carson: Those eggheads need to be taken down a notch
Kasich: Americans need to feel connections to each other again
Fiorina: Washington is too afraid of change; we need leaders who are transformative

What I can't tell you is why Clinton is running. What I get from her campaign is "I'm experienced" (which, frustratingly, gets the whole exercise exactly backwards by being about the past -- nobody cares).

She has since refined that to "I would be a better President". That's an improvement, I grant -- and for that matter I actually agree that she would, but that's not a message you win on, and the fact that the campaign thought that "I'm experienced" was an effective equivalent worries the hell out of me. When you look at the list I came up with above, you see a series of problems to which the candidates are offering solutions. The problems may be bullshit, and the solutions may be worse, but they actually engage voters (and Kasich's message is why I think he's the most dangerous on the R side: that is a powerful message if he manages to connect feelings of alienation to growth of government). They give the voter a reason to care about the campaign.

More to the original point, they allow the campaign to do something other than respond. Clinton started with unprecedented poll numbers and institutional support and still couldn't get Sanders to respond to her like she has to him.

[cantbeserious]

1. We Us Together - Vs - No Can't and Impossible -- The Choice Is Clear

eom

[Betty Karlson]

2. She lost the initiative because she is a follower, not a leader. eom

[upaloopa]

3. Well if I wanted an honest critique of Hillary's campaign I would not go to a Bernie supporter.

I would go to Robby Mook



I wanted to write you with an update on where we stand as a campaign -- and our strategy and priorities moving forward now that the first two contests are past. Warning: This is a more technical and detailed analysis than I've offered of the race so far, but as a supporter, you're a key part of our strategy, and I think it's important that you understand where we are and where we're going.

First off, we won the Iowa caucus!! Our whole team there, from volunteers to staff, did a terrific job for almost a year to make it happen, and literally millions of people across the country lent their support by making calls to caucus-goers, spreading the word on Facebook and Twitter, and giving small donations online. The margin of victory was not huge -- but we brought home a historic win and took an early lead in the delegate race that will ultimately decide the nomination.

Just as importantly, I want to thank our amazing New Hampshire team and everyone who contributed to that effort. We fought with tenacity, ingenuity, and heart in what we’ve known for a while would be a very challenging state. With Iowa and New Hampshire behind us, we’ve begun to focus intensely on the next contests in Nevada, South Carolina, and the March states. Four major points:

March is the month when everything changes. The 28 states that vote or caucus in March will award 56 percent of the delegates needed to win the nomination. These states -- as well as Nevada and South Carolina -- will represent a broader swath of the country. This is a favorable dynamic for us that should put us in strong position to gain a significant, and perhaps insurmountable, delegate lead over the course of the month.

We are building the coalition we need to win the primary and the general election. It will be very difficult, if not impossible, for a Democrat to win the nomination without strong levels of support among African American, Latino, Asian American, and Native American voters, as well as working people and the labor community. We believe that’s how it should be: Our Democratic nominee needs to represent the interests of everyone in this party. Hillary has fought for communities of color and working people for 40 years, from her time as a young lawyer for the Children’s Defense Fund reforming the juvenile justice system to her work fighting for civil and voting rights as Secretary of State. She has the best plans for gun safety, economic empowerment, criminal justice reform, immigration reform, and so many other issues that are deeply important to communities of color. We’re confident that our delegate lead will only strengthen as more communities rightly begin to play a larger role in the nominating process.

We have a targeted, data-driven approach to maximizing delegates, rather an a one-size-fits-all national strategy. Winning the delegates it takes to secure the nomination is a complex business (to put it mildly!), and this campaign is employing a team of experts to make sure we spend every resource we have as wisely as possible. Data scientists are analyzing which areas within March states will yield the most delegates, and we’re deploying paid organizers to key districts to make sure every last Hillary supporter turns out to caucus and vote. We’re using the same targeted approach for our TV and radio ads to make sure that we get the most bang for your buck in these critical states.

Your support is more critical than ever. We’re being outspent by the Sanders campaign, and we likely can’t match their impressive level of grassroots support. We can, though, begin to close the gap. Hundreds of thousands of you have volunteered your time to knock on doors and make calls to likely voters. More than 750,000 of you have chipped in to own a piece of this campaign. No Democrat other than President Obama and Senator Sanders has ever reached these kinds of numbers. We’re extremely proud of that, and grateful to you for all you are doing. This isn’t necessarily part of the narrative -- a lot of reporters and the Sanders campaign are intent on propagating the obvious fiction that you aren’t out there and you aren’t enthusiastic about this campaign -- but it’s an absolutely essential part of our strategy and path to victory. Thank you.

We are obviously in the midst of a very competitive primary, and the landscape will undoubtedly continue to evolve as events unfold. That’s how it should be. So thank you in advance for hunkering down, expecting the unexpected, and standing with us -- with your help, we’re going to win the nomination, take on the Republicans, win the White House, and make history.

Let’s go -- only 17 days until Super Tuesday!

Robby

Robby Mook
Campaign Manager
Hillary for America

[Recursion]

4. OK, I read that. I don't see why she's running for President, or why Mook supports her

or expects someone else to.

Now, in fairness, that's a very "inside baseball" email and I assume all the candidates have those (O'Malley did, at least). Do you have an email from her campaign about why she is running for President?

[upaloopa]

7. I doubt you need this but just in case

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/

[Recursion]

8. Gah! "112 reasons to vote for Hillary Clinton"

No. No. No. No. No.

Can you see that that's exactly the problem I'm talking about? (Remember: I pretty much agree with all 112 of those, and I see this as the reason I don't think she can win a General.)

[EdwardBernays]

5. so true

I have yet to see a single Clinton supporter talk about her plans...

I've heard lots of complaints about the way Bernie uses his fingers, and the number of black staffers he has, but no one says, "hey this is a great plan of Hillary's".... because she's obviously got nothing.

[Vinca]

6. Hillary's problems began with her announcement speech.

It was clear she had already ordered up the drapes for the Oval Office. She went into the race assuming it wouldn't be a race and wasn't prepared when it was.

[BeyondGeography]

9. Happens every time

She's lucky she has a weaker opponent this round.

[cosmicone]

10. Hillary had everything going for her

Then came the freebie-genie promising (undeliverable) free stuff

An effort began to cut Hillary down joined in by the far left and far right

The initial states were tailor made for the freebie-genie. As the campaign moves into more moderate states, the initiative will be back with Hillary.

[Recursion]

11. And if she seizes it that will change a lot

I'd be more than happy to see that happen.

[Myrina]

12. "Vote for me because Me. It's my turn. Me. Me. Me"

That's her elevator speech, as it were.

[demwing]

13. Hillary never had the initiative, just the perception of the initiative

She hasn't lost anything but that perception...