2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFiveThirtyEight=October 6th Update
What you have all been fearing today, I am sure
Electoral Vote
Obama:314
Romeny: 223
Popular Vote
Obama 51.3%
Romney: 47.7%
Odds of Winning
Obama: 83.6%
Romney: 16.4%
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
regnaD kciN
(26,045 posts)...but note what Nate wrote yesterday -- that he's not sure the model can figure in huge debate bounces properly, and that some days will need to elapse before a clear picture can be seen.
Hopefully, those days will see a substantial improvement in polling over the past two...because, if these numbers remain steady, I think you might even see Romney ahead in the electoral college odds by mid-week. (And, no, that's not an exaggeration.)
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)FBaggins
(26,783 posts)So only about half of the calls are post-debate.
OTOH, the better headline number for unemployment muddles even that.
Lex
(34,108 posts)fugop
(1,828 posts)Oh wait. It's 270. Phew.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)It's not okay to just give states and EV's away.
We have to allow room for electoral fraud.
And remember, Obama's numbers going down can risk us losing the Senate momentum we've worked so hard for.
speedoo
(11,229 posts)Huh?
What are you seeing in this update that I am not?
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Some people have been stressing over the polls all day
speedoo
(11,229 posts)Happyhippychick
(8,379 posts)Jack Sprat
(2,500 posts)Not just from the polling, but from Nate himself in recent days.
The story of 538 is that it will still be a few days before the uncertainty starts clearing up. I still don't feel any easier about things right now. My nature is always cautious and skeptical.
craigmatic
(4,510 posts)all year.
DemzRock
(1,016 posts)No?
annabanana
(52,791 posts)blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)That's the plan.
OPERATION NORTHWOODS
Vietnameravet
(1,085 posts)Yes Obama took a bit of a hit..but he is still the favorite to win..
Its credible to me..
Remember Romney is now being subjected to a barrage of fact checking...most very negative
I cant think of anyone that wanted Obama before the debate, changing their minds and .
.national polls showing the race close are skewed because of heavy Romney support in the Red States...so even a close race nationally doesnt mean the actual race is close..Long as we keep the battle ground states we will win.
.and I think the debate may actually awaken some from their complacency,,which would be a tragedy for us..
Also Republican voter suppression laws are being taken down..
So all in all..we stay the course. fight like tigers and .we win..
Yes I am stressed...but stress is good! Gets you moving!
Grammy23
(5,815 posts)Obama is still LIKED better than Romney. Apparently not too much damage was done to how folks feel about Obama, nor did Mittens endear himself to a whole bunch of new people. Whew.....I thought there for a minute he might win Miss Congeniality.
Hyper_Eye
(675 posts)Those numbers are going to change more by the time Biden goes into the debate on Thursday. People need to stop jumping the gun when forming conclusions around here. It doesn't do us any good to approach this race from a perception that is not totally rooted in reality. I think we are going to see the numbers move more towards Romney as the effect of the debate starts to become clear and then movement back as the unemployment and jobs numbers cause a counter-effect. It takes more than a couple of days for these changes to really become apparent. Nate Silver will let us know when he believes the full effect of these events is being reflected in his model.
Within the last few days RCP flipped Ohio back to a toss-up. The no toss-ups map has flipped North Carolina and Florida into Romney's column. That cannot be ignored.
Brewinblue
(392 posts)Obama:310.6
Romeny: 227.5
Popular Vote
Obama 51.1%
Romney: 47.8%
Odds of Winning
Obama: 80.2%
Romney: 19.8%
landolfi
(234 posts)People are smarter than we sometimes give them credit for--we all predicted R$ would be declared the winner in the MSM unless he barfed all over himself and dang it, he didn't--so this shouldn't come as any surprise. So while the MSM tripped over themselves to say it was all even all of a sudden, nobody likes a liar and asshole (I saw a blog post where the writer said R$ was that kid you knew who was rich and had a swimming pool and you still didn't want to go to his birthday party). Also, I think a lot of the surprise here is that folks thought Obama failed to meet the expectations for POTUS, although I would argue O was calmer and more presidential. I submit that the idea that R$ changed the entire political landscape in a lasting way in 1.5 hours is ridiculous no matter how reputable the source. Even if he did, he still has plenty of time to step in it, and history says he will. That said, I'm still shocked that he got any bounce at all and at the amount of media adulation. It's disturbing, but I have faith that time is on our side.
Also, unless I'm mistaken, this does not include the effect of the jobs numbers from any reputable pollster.
couldn't agree more