2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCould I vent a bit?
Understanding that with so few posts I may not have earned this right yet, but with the speed of everything that has happened the past few days, my head is spinning. The spinning, I think, has been fueled mostly by the trillion polls that seem to come out every freaking day.
My problem with this endless string of tracking polls, rolling averages and wildly varying swing-state numbers, is that there seems to be zero room to take a step back and attempt putting it all in some sort of perspective. I am as weak as anyone on this - when I see the word "poll" in the subject line, it draws me in like some sort of psychotic magnet. There's one with good news, one with not-so good news, one with great news and one suggesting that the sky is ready to fall.
The debate was what it was: not a complete disaster, but not good.
The jobs report was what it was: Good news, but not stupendous news.
The Romney is a habitual liar story has started percolating, which could be stupendous news - if allowed to simmer for at least a few more news cycles.
What I can't wrap my head around is that the polls are popping up fast and furious, so fast that it is impossible for me to compute what polls are being influenced by what event. Then there is the ongoing struggle to weed out all the different polling methods, the calculations on party IDs, the bias that some have and some don't.
Then there are the endless blogs and tweets, all of which are throwing as much crap against the wall as they can, so much that it becomes difficult to figure out what's sticking and what isn't.
Not sure what my point is here, except to say that sometimes my head feels like exploding.
My hope is that election night will be such a rush that all the angst will be worth it.
End of rant.
Thanks to anyone who managed to get through the whole thing.
joycejnr
(326 posts)...for all of us. That's part of the fun of the Presidential election cycle. Can you imagine how the poor Conservative sheeplets are totally confused? And if they try walking, chewing gum, and thinking at the same time, their brains start hemorraging through their eyes.
NHDEMFORLIFE
(489 posts)That is such a great word-picture it might get me through at least the weekend with a smile!
Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)Really--a point up, a point down, today versus tomorrow, sampling errors, it can be maddening if you let it. The information is essentially useless for those of us who aren't directing campaigns.
Let it go. The next time you have an urge to click on a poll, resist it & go do something useful for a couple minutes.
peacebird
(14,195 posts)Rest, recharge, and quit thinking about politics for a bit...
murielm99
(30,739 posts)and other forums like the entertainment places. Go there and chill for awhile.
It might be nice, if you are really committed, to find a local candidate or event. Go to a fundraising dinner. Phone bank. Walk in a parade. These face-to-face political activities are far more important than polls. And remember, things can turn on a dime. A month is an eternity and politics. Remember Macaca? And who could have predicted Big Bird? He may just help win this thing for us.
Turn your back on the numbers for a bit.
Siwsan
(26,262 posts)Any polls are only as good as the diversity of the demographic sampled and, the credibility of the company. I was called by some polling company and the the further into the poll, the more convoluted and confusing the questions became. That's when I realized they were after a pre-determined end result and would twist what every they could to get it.
gkhouston
(21,642 posts)I check it with Nate Silver's analysis every now and then, but it's better not to obsess with the day-to-day.
DirkGently
(12,151 posts)sort out the truth of anything. Then, we can just all scream at other until somebody wins.
At least, that seems to be what a lot of people are pursuing.
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)to get you down and confused if possible.
It's an old game....and folks are playing.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)I'm a low post count too. I've been a member since 2005, but I mostly read.
NHDEMFORLIFE
(489 posts)And thanks for the welcome to DU!
I went out and got some exercise this afternoon and think I'll focus on college football tonight.
Of course, when I get up tomorrow there are all the news shows ... I have to skip Meet the Press. That guy usually annoys me.
Grammy23
(5,810 posts)As you can see, I have a low number of posts. But that's only because I lurked for a very long time. I was hanging in this place at least back in 2004 and saw a lot of crying and hand wringing over that debacle. After that election I vowed never to go near politics again and went into a funk that lasted for days. I was really despondent. But the thing is, you really do need to try to grab hold of yourself when you start feeling that way. Just remember as bad a it was during the BUSH years, we did get through it. Not unscathed, mind you, but we are here today to commiserate and compare notes.
I think I had registered a while back, after years of lurking and then decided that posting might be fun. Oh and a place to VENT! Yes!!! AT last a place where I can say what I think (well, with a little editing to avoid getting scorched pants). I live in a VERY, VERY conservative part of Northwest Florida. Home of Naval Aviation.....And there are lots and lots of really far right people living here. Yes, there are Lefties, too, but we are far out numbered by the Righties. So it's easy to start feeling alone and isolated. My husband and I agree almost 100 % on politics (not so much on religious matters) and so he will listen to me for a while. And then he gets tired of it.
I can come here, rant, rave or cheer and almost always find a like mind or someone who knows where I am coming from. Somebody will talk me off the ceiling when I have a bad day. There is a ton of good information here, too. And some crack pots. But that is what makes it interesting. You can figure out who the crack pots are after a while.
As for the polls...first, you have to pick some that are reliable and you don't need 12 or 15. Just a few good reliable ones that have a TRACK RECORD of success. And you can lay off checking them every day unless you are just Obsessive/compulsive. Then it's very hard. But try to limit yourself. It is unlikely that there will be WILD swings over a day or two or even three. I have said to my husband that Obama would have had to have pulled down his pants, mooned the audience and then farted in our faces to make a major impact on dropping his numbers Wednesday night. I was pretty sure he was going to avoid that if he could.