The Sanders coalition: Not what we thought it was

[babylonsister]

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/sanders-coalition-not-what-we-thought-it-was

The Sanders coalition: Not what we thought it was
02/10/16 01:23 PM
By Steve Kornacki


Bernie Sanders’ coalition may be quite different – and much bigger – than has been assumed. That is one of the takeaways from his New Hampshire primary rout, in which Sanders scored impressively with voters who had been crucial to Hillary Clinton’s 2008 victory in the state.

Sanders bested Clinton across virtually all regional and demographic boundaries in the Granite State, crushing her overall by 22 points. But he fared best with economically downscale voters and won over a number of blue-collar cities and towns that had been Clinton redoubts in her 2008 campaign. In so doing, Sanders essentially flipped the ’08 script, in which Clinton’s main challenger, Barack Obama, relied disproportionately on higher-income voters and those with college degrees.

snip//

Sanders’ success with blue collar voters in New Hampshire carries potentially significant implications. Conventional wisdom has held that his campaign is fueled by the same liberal white voters who sided with Obama in ’08 – but doomed by his inability to make inroads with black voters, who were essential to Obama’s triumph.

But the New Hampshire result suggests that Sanders is winning over white voters who shunned Obama in 2008. Eight years ago, it was blue collar whites who sustained Clinton’s campaign through the end of the Democratic primary season, providing her edge in must-win contests in Pennsylvania and Ohio and powering her to landslide victories in “Greater Appalachia” states from Oklahoma to West Virginia. If Sanders can continue to win these voters over, he may be in position to win far more states than most have assumed.

Sanders still faces a stubborn deficit with black voters, who looms large in the upcoming South Carolina primary, and he’ll have to make gains with them to win the nomination. But after New Hampshire, it may be time to stop measuring Sanders’ 2016 campaign against Obama’s ’08 effort and to consider the possibility that Sanders is creating a new coalition right before our eyes.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

1. I want his 'coalition' to be...

Americans. All of us, ideally. But if he doesn't win over the very old, and the very wealthy, who are traditionally Republican voter demographics anyway, I'm good with that. Hillary depending upon those demographics that are essentially Republican doesn't speak well for her chances in a general, anyway.

[Jefferson23]

4. +1. n/t

[Motown_Johnny]

2. The Clinton campaign is nothing if not nimble. They know what they are doing

and will make the necessary adjustments in short order.





For the sarcasm impaired >>------->

[INdemo]

19. right now Bernie has a better organization in NEV/SC

and with 6 more Mill to use it will be even better

[Peace Patriot]

53. 7

nt

[hifiguy]

22. Yup. They will respond with the grace

and precision of a Holstein on roller skates and the light touch of a German jazz band.

[bbgrunt]

23. haha--great images!

[Half-Century Man]

25. thank you......

I now have to clean coffee out of my keyboard.
"light touch of a German jazz band".......


Und Now, a light freeform piano piece with cornet accompaniment, called "Advance Through the Ardennes To Victory"

[SamKnause]

57. Love it !!!

[SamKnause]

58. Love it !!!

[Odin2005]

46. I've said it before, but I can't not laugh at the gif in your signature line.

Just about sums up the idiocy of cable news.

[Blus4u]

3. Good post, bsister

Let me be the first to kick.

Peace

[Jefferson23]

5. Look at that, some are finally understanding it. K&R

[thereismore]

6. I believe the new coalition will include people of color, and it will be even bigger than Obama's

in the end. The voting has just begun.

[HooptieWagon]

7. They would be welcomed.

The door will always be open.

[KoKo]

8. With Nina Turner on his side as his Media Spokesperson

and his strong outreach efforts to the Black & Latino community, I think he's going to pick up more of the AA Vote than anyone could anticipate. Also, times have changed since 2008. In spite of many of the positive things Obama has done--the Middle Class and Poor, which includes POC, and Whites, are barely holding their own or doing worse. I don't see Hillary Clinton or Trump being able to address this.

[Agony]

12. !!!

Hi Five! loves me some Nina Turner!

<-----needs wine glasses too

[KoKo]

35. She is just INCREDIBLE!

Sorry for the shout...but, she deserves it! What an incredible spokesperson she is.
Back attcha!

[Odin2005]

47. Nina is so damn charismatic.

I see high office somewhere in her future!

[jen63]

49. Another Nina fan here!!

She's been in Nevada campaigning!! Nina rocks and some day I'll be casting my vote for her as potus!!

[Peace Patriot]

55. Yes 1000x!!!

Saw her on a panel the other day with Bernie. She is terrific!

[SamKnause]

56. I want her to be Bernie's VP.

FEEL THE BERN

[jillan]

9. I was watching last nite when he reported on this.... Rachel, Brian Williams, Andrea all sitting

there is shock!

I just love little moments like that, don't you???

[840high]

24. I do!

[Odin2005]

10. Sanders is brining working class white people "back home" to the Democratic Party.

And that is why he will win.

[redruddyred]

16. i'm hearing they won't even vote for clinton

rather the GOP than hillary. this isn't hearsay, I was told to my face, by a voter.

we need her to win the general MY FOOT

[hifiguy]

27. She will be electoral poison at the top of the ticket.

She completely demoralizes/disenfranchises/turns off the left-liberal base and will strongly motivate the duck-fucking cave orc Repig base to come out and vote against her.

I'd wager she would be worth between one and three million votes, nationally. For the Repigs.

[amborin]

29. union members will not vote for a Clinton; they remember NAFTA & China's admission to WTO

if Trump gets the Rep nomination, they and many working and middle class voters will give him their vote; his populist message resonates, etc.

DNC better realize: it's Bernie or a Republican in 2016

[hifiguy]

31. Can't add much to that clear-eyed analysis.

Cos it's true.

[redruddyred]

38. i'm not bitter enough to sit this one out

but would be seriously tempted to vote for trump myself.
BECAUSE TRADE, he's a pig otherwise.

[redruddyred]

37. she totally turns off the "I don't vote because fuck the politicians" base

we have more dems than Rs in this country, and they don't vote because they fucking hate their politicians.
until the sanders campaign came into being, i used to read such posts every day on the DU.

[hifiguy]

39. Amazing what happens when an honest person stands up

and talks to people truthfully and without greasy politicalese or snide condescension. Bernie's about as "focus-grouped" as one of the pine trees in Vermont, unlike someone else I could mention.

[redruddyred]

40. it's possible that hillary's been in the public eye too long.

regardless, she wasn't going to do SHIT about TPP and social security until sanders gained momentum. hard to believe her now.

[hifiguy]

41. "Clinton fatigue" was a real thing in 2000.

I had it and I am a lifelong D. The last 16 years have only aggravated the condition.

She's a lousy candidate, combining as she does the common touch of Marie Antoinette and the humility of Napoleon.

[hifiguy]

21. They've been gone for 36 years.

And they're coming back to their natural political home at last.

[KoKo]

44. I think his inclusionary message defies all that self-serving Propaganda

that the Corporate/Wall Street funded "Think Tanks" and the Political Ops serving them have indoctrinated the American people with for the last 40 Years.

Bernie gets it! And, he's old enough to have lived through it and seen what it has done to our American Working Class.

Hillary and Bill chose a different path and made money off of their "putting their past behind them." Bernie never forgot where he came from, and chose a different path.

[Odin2005]

45. He's dissolving Reagan's vile spell in front of our eyes.

Hillary supporters make hay of the fact that many Sanders supporters also like Trump, but that is actually a good sign. That working class white people who would ordinarily vote for a Republican are now also liking a populist Democratic candidate means that the "Reagan Democrats" are coming back.

[Kurovski]

48. Pickled!

[Recursion]

50. And people are genuinely curious why African Americans are nervous about that coalition?

Really?

[Odin2005]

61. So blacks and working class whites can never be in the same coalition?

[Recursion]

62. Not until working class whites change. A lot.

Sorry, there's just no way around that. And that was working class whites' decision.

[Odin2005]

63. Divisive BS.

[Recursion]

64. Whatever

We'll see in the upcoming weeks.

[unc70]

11. Sanders probably getting Edwards voters

Edwards campaign focus was issue oriented, mostly the same issues as Sanders. Clinton got about the same percentage in NH as in 2008; Sanders, that of Obama plus Edwards.

In SC in 2008, Edwards won the white vote while Clinton finished third. I suspect that Clinton is far more vulnerable in SC than most predict.

[BigBearJohn]

13. Kick

[Thespian2]

14. K & R!!!

every voter should be supporting the revolution...and Bernie...

[pnwmom]

15. It also included many independents. Democrats were evenly split between BS and HRC.

[Beacool]

17. The writer forgets that the white Democrats in those states are moderate to conservative.

NH is NH. I wouldn't read the tea leaves and assume that the results in NH will necessarily translate to other states.

[Promethean]

18. Stubborn deficit with black voters?

Didn't exit polls show he was only behind Clinton with black voters by 2 or 3 percent? Isn't that kind of a tiny deficit that is within the margin of error?

[HooptieWagon]

52. There is no margin of error in a vote, only in a poll.

'Non-whites' (they didn't break it down) were Sanders 48, Clinton 52. I don't know why the improvement so big over Iowa. Could be NH saw Iowa results and decide he was electable after all, or maybe Iowa PoC are a bit older, more religious, and more conservative.

[Promethean]

65. I was under the impression those numbers came from exit polls.

[hifiguy]

20. According to the history books some guy named

F.D. Roosevelt did the same thing.

History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. - Mark Twain

[Bjornsdotter]

26. It's because the media

...has been trying to drive the election rather than listening to the people. It's their own fault they didn't see it coming.

[Half-Century Man]

28. MSNBC news reader Steve Kornacki

seems to have a momentary clear area in the side of his bubble.
He can see something that might be a vast gathering with a purpose. Oh looky, it might be several demographics unnaturally clustering together.


Baka

[hifiguy]

30. All of the people who have been getting screwed for 35 years

are coming together, realizing they have ALL been royally screwed by the wealthy. And they're looking for heads.

[Half-Century Man]

33. Got my pitchfork and two extra torches

Meet ya at the drawbridge.

[hifiguy]

34. "Strange women lyin' in ponds distributing swords

is no basis for a system of government!"

Someone forgot to tell HRH and DWS.

[WillyT]

32. K & R !!!

[Uncle Joe]

36. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, babylonsister.

[2banon]

42. Kickin' and Rec'n for a whole lot of good reasons..

especially the discussion threads in this op.. loving it.

[jfern]

43. Yes, this isn't 2008

Bernie's doing better with the poor and Hispanics than Obama, which should offset doing worse with the rich and blacks than Obama.

[Babel_17]

51. The larger the conversation, the larger the tent

And Senator Sanders is talking about a lot of issues that we've been skittish of in the past.

He's the candidate from nowhere; Who could have seen the possibility of a challenger who's not on the payroll, and who'd actually walk the walk, and talk the talk, of how our system of government and finance has been corrupted?

[ucrdem]

54. This is what we were gently trying to point out last spring.

He can't win without full participation of the party and NH is not the party.

[Peace Patriot]

59. Sounds like a threat, ucrdem.

Not a good idea to threaten the true frontrunner, the candidate with all the momentum, the candidate who just raised $7 million in small donations in about 24 hours, the candidate who is inspiring the young to flock to the Democratic Party to vote for him and to volunteer for him, the candidate who actually intends to implement the Democratic Party platform of the last, oh, 40 years, the candidate who is re-igniting the Democratic Party!

If he manages to overcome all the obstacles that the DNC, in collusion with the Clinton campaign and the corporate media, put in his way--and he seems to be doing very will at that--and he wins the nomination, and "the party" (by which you mean the big shots) refuse to support him, then his supporters are going to flood out of the Democratic Party, and the Democratic Party will be no more--or nothing but a sort of rusty tin can that Republicans kick around now and then.

I frankly don't think that the "big shots" are going to do that. They will "triangulate" around him and try to curtail him but they won't openly abandon the party's nominee. And if they do, it won't matter, because he doesn't want or need the kind of money that the "big shots" parcel out to their favorites, and the Democratic Party just doesn't have any kind of organization that Sanders will need--that was abandoned with Dean's "50 state" strategy. So, as is typical of him and his staff, they will invent their own organization.

End of Democratic Party. Beginning of something new--a party that serves the People, a New Deal Party. And whoever you mean by "we"--these "gentle" pointer-outers--will be out of power

So, why not forget "gentle"? Why not scream this threat? Let us all hear it now.

Yeah, you have pissed me off. I was 'born a Democrat' and have been voting Democratic, and supporting Democrats, and working for Democrats, for 54 years, since I was 16! So I have a right to react to threats by my own party for supporting a real Democrat. That's what Sanders is--a real Democrat--whatever he calls himself. Sorry to be mad and snippy. Please understand. I've been an active Democrat for a long time--and so were my parents, and so were my grandparents, and so are my siblings and our children--and I know what I'm talking about.

The Democratic Party is headed off a cliff--so is the entire country, for that matter. THIS political revolution, the Sanders revolution, is a braking mechanism to stop that suicidal plunge into outright fascism and economic and ecological ruin, and turn this national death wish around into a new and expansive democracy alight with all of the creativity and intelligence that democracy can produce, that it was meant by its Founders to produce. The apparatchiks of the Democratic Party cannot stop this, and nothing they can do can dampen my passion, or the passion of millions of other people, for this political revolution. It is needed. And it is happening.

[Betty Karlson]

60. K&R&Bookmarked.