Does Bernie have electability problems? Yes. And Clinton's are just as bad.

[cali]

But Clinton is the odds on favorite, so a few thoughts. And Bernie is entirely irrelevant. She is almost certain to be the nominee.

The party was foolish to clear the field for her. She has always had huge issues around electability. Those issues are more problematic now than they were in 2008 when she did run and 2004 when she did not.

She does not and never did have an easy to grasp core inspirational message. Being the first woman president just isn't enough of one. It's to much about her.

She is not likable enough.

I don't know why. I don't know how much is sexism. But the politician she reminds me most immediately of in that regard, is Romney. I absolutely believe that his not being likable enough combined with Obama being very likable, is a major factor in why he lost. They both come off as inauthentic and so far removed from the daily harsh reality of life that so many Americans deal with.

In any case, she may be the most admired woman in America on some abstract and vague way, but that sure doesn't seem to translate into a benefit for her as a candidate.

There is something terribly anachronistic about her candidacy and campaign.

The emails are a gift to republicans.

Republicans. She will ensure a huge republican turnout. She can't ensure a big democratic turnout.

She's a nightmare for down ticket candidates because she's a huge draw for republican turnout.

Her unfavorables are high and rising.

Independents don't like her.


And yeah, I could go on.

[valerief]

1. She comes across to me as a rubber stamp CEO. Since most people

hate their jobs, they see her as an extension of it. Too CEOish. Careful, too careful. Not enough humanish. The only people who like CEOs are those who aspire to that role.

[brooklynite]

2. "She's a nightmare for down ticket candidates"

...and yet, every down ticket candidate I've met with wants her to be the nominee.

[cali]

3. I'm sure they prefer her to Bernie. But they

know what I point out is true and so do you.

[emulatorloo]

4. Clinton isn't 'Romney' and for sure Rubio isn't 'Obama'

'retroactively classified' emails aren't a 'gift' to anybody but ideologues who wouldn't vote for a Dem anyway.

It doesn't matter who we put up, the teabags and the crazy republicans always turn out turn out.

Truly Moderate Republicans will reject Cruz, Trump, Rubio as they rejected McCain/Palin and Romney/Ryan. I base this on GOTV I did in '08 and '12. They don't like the teabagification of the Republican Party and they don't like the vile rhetoric coming from the Republican politicians on social issues like marriage equality and a women's right to choose.

Bernie or HRC, it is going to be another close general election.

[cali]

7. I didn't say she was Romney.

Most voters do not trust her. Period. And it's nuts to think only extreme ideologues will be influenced by the email mess.

[emulatorloo]

8. I doubt Colin Powell is going to let up on the ridiculousness of 'retroactive classification'

And he still has some influence with genuinely moderate Republicans like my neighbors.

As to favorable/unfavorable #s, I can't really predict how favorable/unfavorable numbers are going to work in the GE based on those numbers today.

For example, what will Trump/Cruz/Rubio's numbers be once general election voters get to know them better? I don't know, but my opinion is that their views will be pretty unpalatable to mainstream voters.

Will some Dems sit home? Probably. But most Dems like both Bernie and HRC and won't have a problem voting for either of them. Agreed that millenials and independents are more unpredictable, I can't predict what they will do and I've never been able to do so.

That being said, it will be close as hell. Another 51 to 49 percent kind of election.

[cali]

9. I doubt anyone will pay attention to him

And the ads write themselves. But the emails are just one on a long, long list.

[speaktruthtopower]

5. She's..

a little bit like George Bush in 1988. Doesn't get the base excited like her two term predecessor, but with a little disorganization on the other side she might pull it off.

[SheenaR]

6. I am biased

No question..

But is it not a simple math issue?

Bernie is the nominee: This supposes that turnout was high, young people came out in great numbers and the minority vote went enough his way. ALL of those people (including the previously disenfranchised) will be out in full force in November. They will turnout regardless of what they say about Bernie. Republicans can tear him limb from limb, THIS group of people as well as the base will turn out to vote and that is a recipe for victory.

Hillary is the nominee: This supposes she was able to hold off the revolution. Her base will come out in droves and with Sanders supporters in tow she will have a decent turnout. She will NOT have the young people out for her, nor will she have those disenfranchised voters (because once again, they will go back to giving up on the system. Hence why they are disenfranchised). She will be attacked as well and this will not deter the base from voting for her. BUT she is missing a large portion of the potential Democratic voting bloc. Simple math states this is less than the number of people that will support Senator Sanders.

Both will have issues. But TURNOUT matters. And one will get the full turnout and one will not. And that will be crucial against Marco Rubio, who is now the odds on favorite to be the nominee.

Forget socialism, age, etc. We have the votes to win with Sanders. And isn't that what we aim for?

[Nedsdag]

10. She will have no coattails.

Who is going to run on her platform?

DINOs got their butts kicked in the 2014 midterms. Who is to say this will not happen again?