New PPP has Obama up 52-43 in Nevada & Berkley over Heller

[WI_DEM]

http://www.ralstonreports.com/sites/default/files/NevadaResults.pdf

Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama................................................ 52%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%
Undecided....................................................... 5%

Q4 The candidates for Senate are Republican
Dean Heller and Democrat Shelley Berkley. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Dean Heller..................................................... 44%
Shelley Berkley ............................................... 48%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

[Pab Sungenis]

1. PPP is a Democratic organization

but not nearly as biased as Rasmussen. If PPP is reporting those numbers it's probably closer to 50-45 for Obama and tied between Heller and Berkley.

However, considering where the Senate race was last month, it certainly means we have momentum on our side, which is great news.

[Mr.Turnip]

2. Usually yeah, but Democrats in the past few elections have frequently signifciantly outperfromed

The polls in Nevada more so than pretty much anywhere else.

I think the average poll lead in Nevada for Obama in 08 was something like 7 or 8 points he ended up winning by 14 or so, Reid was actually behind in the polls at the end of his 2010 Campaign but he won fairly handily.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Yes. The average poll in '08 gave Obama a 6.5 lead over McCain. He won by 12.5

So, he outperformed the state by six points. That's huge.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_mccain_vs_obama-252.html

[Grown2Hate]

3. How many more polls showing President Obama up in swing states with 50% or MORE of the vote

can I possibly take? Several more. Everyday. That's how many. GOBAMA!!! GOTV!!!

[Quiet_Dem_Mom]

4. Another poll shows Heller (R) up. Ralston just posted his "take" on the polls.

http://sulia.com/channel/all-politics-causes/f/1a03ffbe-cd85-4cc8-aa25-089a8434087b/?source=twitter

Poll vs. poll -- same time frame, same basic demographics and very different results. My take:

Folks, it is silly to just reach conclusions because one set of numbers favoring Democrats was done by a Democratic pollster and one favoring Republicans was done by a Republican pollster. The numbers here in Nevada -- you can see them on my site here (http://www.ralstonrepo...) and here (http://www.ralstonrepo...) -- are hard to figure.

[TroyD]

5. This is the first time I can remember Berkley being ahead of Heller

This year.

If this Senate seat begins trending Democratic as well, the chances of maintaining the Senate become incredibly good.