Gun Control & RKBA
Related: About this forumUpdate: What the Florida SYG numbers seem to be telling me
Last edited Fri Jul 26, 2013, 09:37 AM - Edit history (2)
I spent some time on the Tampa Bay Times site and ran the numbers on every combination I could conceive. I did t-tests for two proportions using this site comparing acquittal rates for every group:
White defendant
Minority defendant
White victim
Minority victim
White on white
White on minority
Minority on white
Minority on minority
Inter-racial vs intra-racial
I compared every single option that gave a number of acquittals and a number of cases to every single other option (though I have only finished the fatal cases so far). Only two comparisons, yep two out of over 100, achieved statistical significance. They were the following:
Acquittal rate if victim is white: 56.5% (69 cases, 39 justified)
if victim is black: 78.1% (32 cases, 25 justified)
p-value: 0.0246
Acquittal rate for white on white: 58.8% (51 cases, 30 justified)
for white on minority: 83.3% (12 cases, 10 justified)
p-value: 0.0694
You'll note that these comparisons are very similar in that only the victim's race appears to be important. Interestingly the comparison of whites killing blacks vs blacks killing blacks was as follows:
Acquittal rate for white on black: 85.7% (7 cases, 6 justified)
Acquittal rate for black on black: 65.4% (26 case, 17 justified)
p-value: 0.2456
Similarly if we compare white defendants to black defendants we get:
Acquittal rate for white defendants: 61.5% (65 cases, 40 justified)
Acquittal rate for black defendants: 68.6% (35 cases, 24 justified)
p-value: 0.4816
My conclusion (and I reserve the right to be convinced otherwise) is that Florida's SYG law is applied equally to defendants of all races, however, there is a disparity in cases where the victim is a minority. I can't explain that disparity, but I have a hard time believing that it is racism because the the judicial system deals with defendants, not victims, and there appears to be no racial favoritism in the case of defendants.
I would very much like to hear your opinions. Also, if there are other comparisons that you would like to see, let me know and I will do my best to run the numbers. The Tampa Bay Times has a tally of how many cases are initiated by the victim (as opposed to the defendant), but unfortunately it does not break down how many of those case were deemed justified. I think it would be very telling if the acquittal rate is higher when the victim initiates vs when the defendant initiates, as this is particularly a propos to the Zimmerman trial.
ps- I also reserve the right to make mistakes with the numbers. I'm a bit of a statistics amateur, but I've done my best to avoid any gross errors.
Update with ALL cases:
The patterns I highlighted above remained true. In fact, the majority of comparisons became less significant. Most apparent was the comparison between white victims and black victims. When all cases are considered, this comparison becomes:
Acquittal rate if victim is white: 62.8% (129 cases, 81 justified)
Acquittal rate if victim is black: 75% (64 cases, 48 justified)
p-value: 0.0782
Notice that, while still significant, the confidence level has dropped from 95% confidence to 90%. Also, the acquittal rates are only 12.2 points different instead of 21.6. Perhaps that is why the Tampa Bay times article chose to use the fatal case numbers for their article, it is obviously the most inflammatory.
There were a few comparisons that became more significant, but none that reached significance that weren't already significant. Two, however, caught my eye because they improved and came pretty close to 90% significance. They are the following:
Acquittal rate if victim is white: 62.8% (129 cases, 81 justified)
Acquittal rate if victim is hispanic: 83.3% (12 cases, 10 justified)
p-value: 0.1048
Acquittal rate if case is Intra-Racial: 65.5% (148 cases, 97 justified)
Acquittal rate if case is Inter-Racial: 76.9% (52 cases, 40 justified)
p-value: 0.1082
The first statistic reaffirms the disparity between cases with white vs minority victims, but I'm not quite sure what to make of the second. It is likely confounded by the fact that the acquittal rate for white victims is much lower and the majority of white victim cases involve a white defendant. I don't think there's a racial argument to be made with this specific statistic, and it doesn't meet my definition of significant, but it is interesting.
Because rdharma will want to know, the p-value for the comparison of white on black cases vs black on white cases did increase from 0.4392 to 0.4206.
note- In all of these numbers I ignored pending cases (for obvious reasons). And always remember there are liars, there are dirty rotten liars, and then there are statisticians.
rdharma
(6,057 posts)I see you figured the acquittal rate for white on black: 85.7% (7 cases, 6 justified)
Why did you omit the acquittal rate for black on white?
I can guess why!
Bazinga
(331 posts)Acquittal rate for white on black: 85.7% (7 cases, 6 justified)
Acquittal rate for black on white: 66.7% (6 cases, 4 justified)
p-value: .4392
I think I covered that in:
"
I compared every single option that gave a number of acquittals and a number of cases to every single other option (though I have only finished the fatal cases so far). Only two comparisons, yep two out of over 100, achieved statistical significance.
But I am happy to report any other comparisons which failed to meet significance. Feel free to ask, but I would kindly ask you to refrain from your usual snark. I have no agenda in which numbers I report. I highlighted the significant comparisons and a couple others that led me to believe what I did.
I would be pleased to hear your explanation regarding the disparity between white and minority victims.
rdharma
(6,057 posts)I see why you omitted that stat.
Bazinga
(331 posts)You probably already knew that, but in case you didn't, I'll try to explain what the p-value is.
In a comparison you are testing the hypothesis that there is no difference between the two rates. The p-value is an indicator of how likely it is that the difference in rates is purely a matter of chance. In other words, with a p-value of .48 there is a 48% chance that this has nothing to do with racism, but rather luck of the draw. A result isn't considered significant until that likelihood is at least lower than 10% (p-value less than 0.1) and in my field it usually has to be less than 5%.
I agree that an individual would consider an individual verdict to be "significant" to that individual, but when we look at all of the numbers, the way we do when we consider the effect of a policy, we see a different picture.
I omitted the stat because it is not a stat. A p-value .4392 is about as bad as it gets. At best it means there is not enough information in the current samples to determine of the two acquittal rates are truly different.
rl6214
(8,142 posts)Bazinga
(331 posts)rrneck
(17,671 posts)All we see in the numbers is the interaction between two populations of people who have various similarities and differences in a host of other factors affecting them. A nice effort but in the end there is insufficient cultural data to determine anything.
Bazinga
(331 posts)"SYG is racist, just look at the difference between black and white victims!"
"SYG isn't racist, just look at the acquittal rates for black and white defendants!"
rdharma
(6,057 posts)GreenStormCloud
(12,072 posts)These are ALL of the SYG shooting, fatal and non-fatal, ever since FL enacted SYG in 2005.
Black on White - 4 convicted, 12 justified, 4 pending
White on Black - 3 convicted, 14 justified, 5 pending
Total of all SYG claims:
59 convicted, 143 justified, 35 pending
rrneck
(17,671 posts)In eight years 237 SYG cases? In a state with almost twenty million people? Jeez.
rdharma
(6,057 posts)" Defendants claiming "stand your ground" are more likely to prevail if the victim is black. Seventy-three percent of those who killed a black person faced no penalty compared to 59 percent of those who killed a white."
http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/crime/florida-stand-your-ground-law-yields-some-shocking-outcomes-depending-on/1233133
Bazinga
(331 posts)And ge's for that matter.
The statistic you quoted was the exact reason I started running the numbers myself, and it is that statistic that is the only significant result.
That is the comparison between white victims and black victims that has a p-value of 0.0246. It is indicative that there is a disparity between these two sets, and it is that disparity for which I am trying to find an explanation.
Bazinga
(331 posts)The numbers say there is no statistically significant difference between a black person killing a white person and a white person killing a black person (or any other group for that matter).
rl6214
(8,142 posts)I've said all along this isn't a racist law and your analysis bears this out.
rdharma
(6,057 posts)" Defendants claiming "stand your ground" are more likely to prevail if the victim is black. Seventy-three percent of those who killed a black person faced no penalty compared to 59 percent of those who killed a white."
http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/crime/florida-stand-your-ground-law-yields-some-shocking-outcomes-depending-on/1233133
Bazinga based his "calculations" on the same source....... but left out the most important figures (intentionally?).
Bazinga
(331 posts)That was the only statistic that met significance, and was the very first one I reported in my OP. I obviously didn't leave it out on purpose, because I didn't leave it out!
I also provided my source and my calculator, so feel free to check my "calculations". In fact I would love it if someone who had a little more experience with statistics would check my numbers to make sure I'm on the right track.
I have stated (thrice now) that there is a disparity in acquittal rates in cases with black victims vs cases with white victims.
How often have you admitted that there is no difference in acquittal rates for white defendants vs black defendants?
rdharma
(6,057 posts)You can continue your double talk but the facts are........
"Defendants claiming "stand your ground" are more likely to prevail if the victim is black. Seventy-three percent of those who killed a black person faced no penalty compared to 59 percent of those who killed a white."
Bazinga
(331 posts)That we are talking about the same statistic.
Acquittal rate if victim is white: 56.5% (69 cases, 39 justified)
Acquittal rate if victim is black: 78.1% (32 cases, 25 justified) p-value: 0.0246
Sounds an awful lot like:
"Defendants claiming "stand your ground" are more likely to prevail if the victim is black. Seventy-three percent of those who killed a black person faced no penalty compared to 59 percent of those who killed a white."
In fact, my statistic is 8% more racist than yours (perhaps since cases are continually being added to their database).
It's not double-talk if you refuse to hear what I'm saying.
Bazinga
(331 posts)it's the very Tampa Bay Times article you reference.
Much like you, it fails to admit that whites are convicted on parity with blacks in SYG cases. In fact the acquittal rate for black defendants in fatal cases is higher than for white defendants (though not to statistical significance).
NYC_SKP
(68,644 posts)...to make their points, but I don't think they were required to take a statistics course in journalism school, if they went to school at all.
Again, thanks for taking the data and making objective sense of it.
I'm sorry that some are resistant to accepting the findings.
ileus
(15,396 posts)To be a victim...
Safety first and carry on.
rdharma
(6,057 posts)You had a right to self defense before the SYG law too. But, by all means, feel free to carry on with the paranoid RW nonsense !
discntnt_irny_srcsm
(18,479 posts)spin
(17,493 posts)you can avoid a criminal trial or even a civil case.
The 2013 Florida Statutes
CHAPTER 776
JUSTIFIABLE USE OF FORCE
776.032?Immunity from criminal prosecution and civil action for justifiable use of force.
(1)?A person who uses force as permitted in s. 776.012, s. 776.013, or s. 776.031 is justified in using such force and is immune from criminal prosecution and civil action for the use of such force, unless the person against whom force was used is a law enforcement officer, as defined in s. 943.10(14), who was acting in the performance of his or her official duties and the officer identified himself or herself in accordance with any applicable law or the person using force knew or reasonably should have known that the person was a law enforcement officer. As used in this subsection, the term criminal prosecution includes arresting, detaining in custody, and charging or prosecuting the defendant.
(2)?A law enforcement agency may use standard procedures for investigating the use of force as described in subsection (1), but the agency may not arrest the person for using force unless it determines that there is probable cause that the force that was used was unlawful.
(3)?The court shall award reasonable attorneys fees, court costs, compensation for loss of income, and all expenses incurred by the defendant in defense of any civil action brought by a plaintiff if the court finds that the defendant is immune from prosecution as provided in subsection (1).
History.s. 4, ch. 2005-27.
http://www.leg.state.fl.us/statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&URL=0700-0799/0776/0776.html
It is quite possible that a person who legitimately stood his ground and resisted a violent attack might still face an overzealous prosecutor who would charge him and even after a jury ruled that he was not guilty, he might face civil action. The legal expenses could easily bankrupt the defendant. I feel this is unreasonable in cases where there is little or no question that the defendant's actions where entirely legal and justified.
Of course it is extremely important that a stand your ground law is well written and the legal system is honest and fair.
NYC_SKP
(68,644 posts)Thanks for crunching the numbers.
I see one person is upset!
Bazinga
(331 posts)But I did put quite a bit of work into it last summer. Glad you like it.
There are definitely flaws in Florida's version of SYG, but it seems to me that they are really the same flaws inherent in the rest of our judicial system. That said, SYG will always be better than DTR.