Gun Control & RKBA
Related: About this forumHere is the problem
Fix the f-ing budget.
What is upsetting to me is that the Democrats have cast aside their real mandate to go on this gun control excursion.
Fix the f-ing budget.
Our next president is going to be a damn Republican because of this crap. It's going to be 1994 all over again. I like my guns, but the idea of having a Republican president cut from the current Republican cloth drives me nuts.
Squinch
(51,087 posts)iiibbb
(1,448 posts)Democrats are not in power because of a gun control mandate.
Squinch
(51,087 posts)Who cares about the fact that schools are getting shot up in record numbers in the past few weeks? There's no mandate.
But wait. All the polls are showing overwhelming support for new gun control measures...
Oh, well. Anyhow, lets just drop it. Because the budget. Because the mandate. Because Republicans will "resurge." Because because because because because.
Because a bunch of dead people, many of them children, are making things inconvenient for gun hobbyists.
Callisto32
(2,997 posts)Hell of a claim.
Care to back it up.
Overwhelming support: argumentum ad populum, please try again.
Squinch
(51,087 posts)(Hazard and Stevens were on the SAME DAY).
These are the school shootings from the last month. Is that enough death for you?
As far as overwhelming support, here's a poll: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/17/us-usa-guns-poll-idUSBRE90G1B120130117.
Your populum ok now? I think you may need to get it lanced.
And by the way, that phrase doesn't mean what you seem to think it means. You seem to be questioning whether there actually is overwhelming support. "Argumentum ad populum" would have been used correctly if we agreed that many people believed something, but you felt that belief shared by many was fallacious. Nice try, though.
Callisto32
(2,997 posts)We could very well find in the next 10 years that the last 6 months are a statistical outlier.
You said support for gun control was overwhelming. Since citing the fallacy didn't work, ill try layman's terms "so the fuck what?"
The fact that something is widely supported means absolutely fuck-all about its moral rightness/factual correctness. That is what argumentum ad populum means. If you weren't suggesting that overwhelming support for an action means its a good idea, what exactly was the point of pointing it out?
Squinch
(51,087 posts)mandate for gun control measures. Which, since Sandy Hook, there is.
The point being discussed with the other poster was whether there was widespread support. I don't think anyone was wondering whether you thought that support was well founded or not.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)we can walk and chew gum at the same time in answer to that meme which has been posted here over and over this week.
What's next?
doc03
(35,446 posts)Progressive dog
(6,931 posts)At what point did the murder of children stop mattering to you?
iiibbb
(1,448 posts)is very insulting. The fact you can't see a political landscape just means you'll be sorry when we wind up with President Palin or similar.... because you didn't have a mandate.... and that's going to affect many more children
virginia mountainman
(5,046 posts)20 kids where killed (along with almost 170 adults) in the Oklahoma City bombing, Do you tell the people that don't want to ban Ryder trucks that??
Kaleva
(36,403 posts)krispos42
(49,445 posts)A person with murderous intent is what they are killed by.
Shadowflash
(1,536 posts)Because, if you try hard enough, you can kill a person with a large rock so why bother with gun safety laws? People are going to kill people anyway, right?
apocalypsehow
(12,751 posts)After all, by the pro-NRA logic, if people really want them they are just absolutely going to get them no matter what laws are on the books! And there might be actual good uses a "law abiding Tactical Nuclear Weapon owner" might put his minature Hiroshima-style weapon too! What if finds himself in the middle of a Zombie Swarm? Are you against a law-abiding citizens right to defend himself with an 155mm artillery piece or a bazooka Nuke? Then you are anti-freedum and a hater of the Bill of Rights!!!!!111
It's 100% silly, but the logic above is precisely the "logic" our "pro gun progressives" use to justify military-style assault weapons capable of firing thousands of rounds a minute in civilian hands. They simply don't care how many children have to die in Sandy Hook-style massacres; they want them their toys and to hell with the rest of the country!
Thankfully, the vast majority of Americans are now beginning to turn against their deadly agenda, and stronger gun laws are coming nationwide.
gejohnston
(17,502 posts)affording it, hiring a crew, and getting ammo for it is a different matter. Of course it would have to be registered as a destructive device under the NFA even if demilled(as amended in 1968, AFAIK mortars, grenades etc were not regulated under federal law before then) and each round would also have to be taxed and registered separately. since the folks who have a monopoly on such things are not going to sell an operable one to you or me, it is kind of moot. As for tactical nukes, have to talk to the NRC about that.
apocalypsehow
(12,751 posts)you always add something to the discussion and I appreciate it.
oneshooter
(8,614 posts)WW2 vintage 90mm anti tank gun.
apocalypsehow
(12,751 posts)for historical reasons. The credits said it was originally built to take on German Tiger tanks, and could penetrate 5 inches of armor at 1,000 yards. I wonder if it actually racked up any Tiger "kills" during actual combat? Would be interesting to know.
It sure looked effective at blowing shit up.
Squinch
(51,087 posts)Seriously, Virginia. Don't you ever get tired of that argument? You have to understand how completely ridiculous it is. You just have to come up with something better.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Ah, well...when one hasn't much in the way of substantive argument, it's either something like that or remain silent. Sadly, some aren't smart enough to choose the latter...
This is a real problem: push too hard on these (largely useless) gun control measures...and we lose the Senate in 2014. The potential economic disaster alone would probably kill many times more people than all the spree killings in the last ten years.
apocalypsehow
(12,751 posts)Callisto32
(2,997 posts)I guess that says it all.
"By their fruits shall ye know them."
apocalypsehow
(12,751 posts)is. I recommend you enroll in a local community college, and take a Logic & Critical thinking course, and after that then come back to us and post about logical fallacies you think you've spotted on DU after actually learning what a "logical fallacy" consists of/looks like. It's less embarrassing that way. Pro-tip.
Good luck!
Edit: typo.
Squinch
(51,087 posts)apocalypsehow
(12,751 posts)Callisto32
(2,997 posts)clearly you hate children."
Well done.
Both non sequitur and ad hominem abusive in one fell swoop!
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)Tuesday Afternoon
(56,912 posts)Andrew Kehoe was an American farmer and treasurer of his township school board notable as a mass murderer for killing his wife, and 43 other people (including 38 children), and injuring 58 people by setting off bombs in the Bath School Disaster on May 18, 1927. He committed suicide near the school by detonating dynamite in his truck, causing an explosion which killed several other people and wounded more. He had earlier set off incendiary devices in his house and farm, destroying all the buildings, as well as two horses and other animals.
virginia mountainman
(5,046 posts)People forget what the quest for gun control HAS COST..
Ann Richards FORMER governor of Texas lost to G.W.B primarily because she fought hard against CCW legislation
Al Gore lost his home state of TN over gun control...
Mary Sue Terry lost to a "nobody" named George Allen in Virginia because she went from a comfortable lead to way behind within 24 hrs when she came out for an assault weapon ban on local TV...
I don't need to give any more examples now do I???
jimmy the one
(2,708 posts)va mtn man: Ann Richards FORMER governor of Texas lost to G.W.B primarily because she fought hard against CCW legislation
Had nowt to do with gw's daddy hwbush being president? and ann richards referring to hwbush as having been born with a silver foot in his mouth.
People forget what the quest for gun control HAS COST..
I don't need to give any more examples now do I???
No more examples pls, but an explanation would suffice; how did tim kaine eke out his victory over pro gun, nra endorsed candidate george allen (macacaw man).
October 2, 2012 NRA Endorsements Out for Virginia NRA-PVF has posted the grades for Virginia's Senate and Congressional Candidates. Not suprisingly, in the U.S. Senate Race, former Senator and Governor [Repub] George Allen received the endorsement over Former Governor Tim Kaine
Sep 29, 2012 ... The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) endorsed
George Allen for U.S. Senate
District 7 *Eric Cantor (R) Grade: A+ E. Wayne Powell (D) Grade: AQ
District 8 Patrick Murray (R) Grade: AQ *Jim Moran (D) Grade: F
Elmergantry
(884 posts)"Hundreds" show up at a joint meeting with three local sheriffs to express concern over possible gun confiscation. They wanted to know where there sheriff stood.
I have a hard time believing all these people are far-right "gun worshippers"
http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/local&id=8957131
Kaleva
(36,403 posts)that extra gun control measures are needed.
Instead of trying to convince DUers to do nothing.
iiibbb
(1,448 posts)telling them that their stances on Abortion, Gay Rights, Environmental Protection, Fiscal Irresponsibility (Particularly between 2000-2006), Unfunded Wars...
were going to cost them elections. They basically told me they don't need my vote.
The past few weeks the Democratic party has effectively told me the same thing... and I've been a pretty regular Democratic voter for the past decade.
I may just quit voting for a while since both parties seem more concerned with ramming something through rather than address their mandates.
Kaleva
(36,403 posts)Yet you probably voted for him.
iiibbb
(1,448 posts)Squinch
(51,087 posts)she's a good ol' gun gal.
iiibbb
(1,448 posts)Voting for Obama in 2008 was a no-brainer because Sarah Palin has no brain.
I'm not a single issue voter; but as things become equal, I will choose a pro-gun candidate.
Squinch
(51,087 posts)your primary concern was the budget? You seem to be drifting.
iiibbb
(1,448 posts)rhetoric about gun control.
You are not thinking big picture. You are thinking single issue.
Squinch
(51,087 posts)issue?
Callisto32
(2,997 posts)in other words:
STRRRRAWWWWWWWWWWWWW MAAAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNN.
SecularMotion
(7,981 posts)iiibbb
(1,448 posts)unless Palin runs against him or something...
DemDealer
(25 posts)I wonder how many Democrat voters who were otherwise pro-gun voted for Obama? After his first term and a net gain in gun rights there was a general sense that he was "safe" to vote for even to many single-issue gun rights voters. In some of the circles I run in, this push for a new AWB is seen by those conservatives as the height of betrayal. With the last 2 consecutive Democrat presidents being perceived as "gun grabbers" I don't think those same swing voters are going to be willing to grant us any more chances any time soon.
We may have lost a crucial voting bloc for a long time to come. 1994 may end up looking like paradise compared to our next election.
jimmy the one
(2,708 posts)dem dealer: In some of the circles I run in, this push for a new AWB is seen by those conservatives as the height of betrayal.
So? only proves you mingle with blue dog democrats more than the normal democrat, or perhaps, or likely you are a red state democrat?
Tho I have a preliminary take that you're a plant. We get a lot of those, newbies with under 50 posts spouting off about pro gun issues. Yawn. Easy to spot, actually. They don't seem to last too long, so if I don't hear from you again, have a nice days.
With the last 2 consecutive Democrat presidents being perceived as "gun grabbers" I don't think those same swing voters are going to be willing to grant us any more chances any time soon.
On my, we're doomed now aren't we? may as well just all of us dems do as dem dealer seemingly suggests, abandon the obama approach & jump into WAYNES WORLD chanting GUNS GONE, GUNS GONE.
Thanks but no thanks dem dealer, so far you've offered little but rightwing mantra.
We may have lost a crucial voting bloc for a long time to come. 1994 may end up looking like paradise compared to our next election.
WAYNES WORLD, WAYNES WORLD.
iiibbb
(1,448 posts)That I am scum, and that they don't need my vote.
We'll see.
DemDealer
(25 posts)Fortunately we have one very good Democrat representative who is quite pro gun and gets her fair majority of votes in my district, but most of my friends and coworkers are Republicans. Our overall culture here is more "socially liberal, fiscally tightwad, we all love guns" which sits well with most of my friends on both sides of the isle (and myself). We all get along very well around here most of the time.
Berserker
(3,419 posts)Do not be self-congratulatory about how brave you for being for this gun control push, he said. The only brave people are the people who are going to lose their jobs if they vote with you.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/bill-clinton-to-democrats-dont-trivialize-gun-culture-86443_Page2.html#ixzz2IUADbyUe
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Wait, lemme guess, you don't believe the polls. It's some kind of conspiracy. Dick Morris? Karl Rove?
iiibbb
(1,448 posts)This isn't polls a few months before the election... these are polls 2 and 4 years away from an election.
You are relying on today's numbers before whatever the Democrats have planned.... instead of working on the budget.
We'll see how that works out for you.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)You think that the rest of the country is as gun-obsessed as you are, and no amount of evidence is going to change your mind. Sorry, demographics are changing, and old white conservative males from rural areas are a shrinking demographic.
PS Why are you so worried about the budget? Interest rates are at historical lows, and cutting spending while unemployment is high will just weaken the economy further.
benEzra
(12,148 posts)1. The polls show much, much weaker support for an AWB and magazine restrictions now than in 1994. Were you following the issue then?
2. The bans now on the table are a hundred times more restrictive than in 1994. The 1994 law that cost the trifecta didn't even ban any guns, didn't affect the capacity of available rifle magazines (because it allowed unlimited importation of surplus STANAG and Warsaw Pact mags), didn't significantly affect 20- and 30-round rifle mag prices after the initial panic wore off, and didn't prevent you from legally buying as many 15/20/30/whatever-round magazines as you wanted for your pistol or rifle. It just raised prices on pistol magazines and required a few minor cosmetic/ergonomic changes to civilian AK's and AR's that most non-gunnies wouldn't even notice at first glance. And oh yeah, it banned marketing of new civilian guns under any of 19 banned names.
3. AR's and over-10-round magazines are FAR more popular now than in 1994. In 1994 "black rifles" were niche enthusiasts' weapons; today, they aren't just mainstream, they *define* the mainstream. The AR-15 platform has been the most popular civilian centerfire rifle in the United States since the early 2000's. Today, using the working definitions being discussed, a ban on "assault weapons" and over-10-round magazines would be affecting 30+ million guns and 200+ million magazines owned by 40-50 million citizens of voting age.
And that's not even counting the blowback that's going to come as fallout from the New York overreach.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)I tend to trust polls, along with Obama's political instinct, as opposed to the alarmism from the NRA crowd. And frankly, part of this is because, from what I've seen pro-gunners do not inhabit reality. We heard the same predictions of gloom when Obama mentioned the AWB in the debate. And before that we heard about how Fast and Furious was some conspiracy to arm Mexican drug gangs, a scandal comparable to Watergate or Iran-Contra. And did I mention that gun control caused the holocaust? And so on. It seems to me this is simply a case of conservative white males who live in rural areas and love their guns over all else believing that the rest of the country is just like them, regardless of what the polls say.
benEzra
(12,148 posts)As I recall, the polls in 1994 showed above 75% support, and it bombed...and as I mentioned, ownership is probably triple or quadruple now what it was then, and the proposed bans go much, much further than then.
One problem, then and now, was that many supporters weren't aware of the scope of the legislation ("do you support banning rapid-fire military weapons that have no legitimate sporting purpose" is quite a different thing than "do you support banning the most popular civilian target rifle in the United States" or "do you support making it a Federal felony to possess an ordinary 15-round pistol magazine" . Once the 1994 law was passed, a lot of supporters found that their own ox had been gored. There are strong parallels to the 18th Amendment and the Volstead Act, IMO.
The other thing is that people you are threatening with 10- to 25-year felonies are going to be much more involved than somebody who thinks that some abstract ban on items they don't fully understand might possibly do some good. As the saying goes, it's like ham and eggs; if you're a chicken, you're concerned, but if you're a pig, you're involved.
Disclaimer, I'm in the former category (competitive shooter, CHL holder, nonhunter).
DanTex
(20,709 posts)I've even seen polls where the majority support a ban on all semi-automatics.
I've read differing accounts of the repercussions from the first AWB. Of course it's gospel on the pro-gun side that it lost the house and also it cost Gore the election. IIRC, even Clinton said something like that. But I've also read pretty persuasive articles that the gun lobby's power is overstated.
I get the enthusiasm gap thing, but it seems to me that most of the people who really care enough about AR-15s to vote based on this alone are probably voting Republican anyway. Certainly, outside of DU, none of the people who are all upset about this seem to be likely Democratic voters.
And as long as existing weapons are grandfathered, then all the talk of felonies is moot. Nobody is going to prison for a 30-round magazine that they forgot was laying around. So it's not really as drastic as you make it out to be. The question is whether Obama will be able to raise and sustain the enthusiasm from the majority. Apparently he thinks he can.
By the way, doesn't it seem a bit contradictory to on one hand claim that this is some draconian crackdown comparable to prohibition, and then go on to say that the ban is purely cosmetic? I actually tend to agree that "assault weapons" are arbitrarily defined, and that it would be better to put political capital towards a national licensing and registration system for all semi-autos and handguns. But, seeing how angry the NRA has become kind of reminds me of how I felt after the healthcare debate. There were a lot of problems with Obamacare, but the simple fact that Republicans thought it was the beginning of a communist takeover meant that it must have dome something right.
jeepnstein
(2,631 posts)It's draconian. And quite dumb. But when the wealthy ruling classes decide they want the population disarmed, the politicians do their bidding.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Same with talk about "disarming the population". What does that even mean? It's basically crazy talk.
I thought assault weapons bans were just cosmetic? What is so draconian about banning scary looking rifles? You can still have a gun in New York. Just, if you want to buy a new one, it can't be "scary". Nobody is disarmed. I don't see what the big deal is.
Straw Man
(6,627 posts)Banning this ...
... is draconian.
Squinch
(51,087 posts)Isn't that great news? Wonder how that happened. Could it be those previous NY gun laws that everyone said were draconian?
gejohnston
(17,502 posts)gee there is logical fallacy for that. BTW, what is their actual suicide and murder rates? compared to the rest of the US? What was it before?
Straw Man
(6,627 posts)Isn't that great news? Wonder how that happened. Could it be those previous NY gun laws that everyone said were draconian?
I kind of doubt it, since in 2006 New York was under the terms of the 1994 law, and the new laws were only passed last week.
Squinch
(51,087 posts)Many of the 1994 laws have a cumulative effect. For example, the assault weapons ban was for all guns manufactured after 1994, so each year there will be none of them added to the pot and more going out of commission for one reason or another. At some point you hit a tipping point where there are fewer out there than there used to be and their use begins to go down.
Also, the $340 licensing fee, along with the other very, very high gun fees, tend to reduce numbers of guns licensed in recessionary times, therefore reduces gun purchases in recessionary times. I imagine that has had the bulk of the effect since 2006.
gejohnston
(17,502 posts)those are not the people committing the crimes. Most of New York's problems gangs using guns that never were legal to begin with. Some of these are with community guns owned by the gangs. Licensing fees don't affect the people who would be doing the shooting.
Squinch
(51,087 posts)gejohnston
(17,502 posts)like following the same trend as the rest of the country. Different criminologist have their own pet theories from lead abatement to aging population. Take your pick.
Squinch
(51,087 posts)not being in the top 5. So aging population and lead abatement have been controlled for because we are including all the major US cities, and yet New York still improves faster.
What's different? Well, there are the cumulative effects of those gun laws, and a recession that made the gun hobby too expensive for New Yorkers to pursue.
gejohnston
(17,502 posts)Criminology 201 most murderers and their victims have generally have long criminal records, negating the licensing fee argument, and they have their guns for business. Target shooter going off the deep end does happen, but is very rare. Could be because more NY Republicans are moving to Florida.
It seems you are talking about NYC here is the problem. How sure are you about those statistics?
Mountains of scientific evidence supporting this are explored in The Crime Numbers Game. The bulk of the book's evidence came from a survey of 500 retired police officers ranked captain and above, as well as from in depth interviews with over 40 retired and active officers.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eli-b-silverman/low-crime-rates-nypd-eli-b-silverman-john-a-eterno_b_1772489.html
Straw Man
(6,627 posts)There was no new manufacture, but guns manufactured before the ban could still be sold. Besides that, the ban-compliant guns were virtually identical in terms of function -- bayonet lugs, flash hiders, and barrel shrouds contribute nothing to the general usability of the rifle -- with only the reduced magazine capacity being significant in any way. And there were enough pre-ban magazines out there to last for many, many years. There still are, as a matter of fact.
What you say might have eventually come true, but the ban would have had no visible effect for 50 years or more. I have firearms that are 100 years old and still fully functional.
In fact, the frenzy of buying before the effective date of the 1994 ban put many more of the "black rifles" into public hands than ever before. You're seeing this phenomenon again now. People who don't own even a single gun suddenly want an AR because they're afraid they may never be able to get one again.
Squinch
(51,087 posts)(We both know your 50 years figure was just pulled out of your hat.) There are more things than the durability of the gun that go into the equation.
For example, the owner dies and the widow sticks it in the attic, essentially pulling it out of circulation.
Or, as happened with my own father, as people become older - and I would say wiser - they simply stop seeing the glamor they once saw in a gun. It becomes something that no longer appeals to them, they see their earlier enthusiasm as silly, and they store the gun away, also taking it out of circulation.
So actually it makes perfect sense that a recession, which makes people prioritize other things above their gun hobby, and the aging of the cohort of the gun buyers who could purchase without the 1994 restrictions, would combine to explain the reduction in the gun deaths that have been seen in New York.
Straw Man
(6,627 posts)You think that 12 years is a realistic lifespan for an AR rifle? Please ...
I did not pull the 50 year figure out of my hat or anywhere else. I have firearms that are that old and much older, as I said: up to 100 years old. They are fully functional.
The "Dad gets old" scenario won't apply for quite some time. The AR phenomenon is fairly recent, as I also referenced above. So the bans will take about a generation to have any effect. If you couple that with the fact that hands and feet account for more murders than rifles do -- ALL rifles, not only "assault weapons" -- you will conclude, as I do, that this ban will have a negligible effect on violent crime in the long term and virtually no effect in the short or medium term.
Squinch
(51,087 posts)Bye!
Straw Man
(6,627 posts)Tell us what you find.
Squinch
(51,087 posts)not worth the effort of communication.
So again I say, bye!
Straw Man
(6,627 posts)According to FBI stats, 323 murdered with rifles in 2011, 728 with hands, fists, and feet.
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-8
You call it "idiocy." I call it information, something to which you apparently have an aversion. If you think these stats are not relevant, please explain why not. Otherwise ...
... buh-bye.
benEzra
(12,148 posts)I've even seen polls where the majority support a ban on all semi-automatics.
I wonder how many respondents realize "high capacity" in this context means "more than 2/3 of what ordinary pistols hold" rather than extended magazines or whatever; or that "assault weapons" are not military assault rifles; or that "semiautomatic" means "works like an ordinary civilian gun, not a military weapon".
That was the fly in the ointment in 1994; the high polling support was meaningless when the backlash came, because a lot of the support was based on misunderstanding of terms, and most of the rest was a mile wide and an inch deep. So it turned into a Pyrrhic victory for the gun control movement.
BTW I'm speaking of the Congressional AWB proposals here, not of the 23 EO's from this week. Most of the EO's were pretty benign compared to what he could have done, leading me to believe that he was trying to scale things back.
There is some truth to that, but probably less than you'd think. If you run the numbers, about half of gun owners reporting party affiliation are Dems and indies. Dems are the fastest growing subset of gun owners according to Gallup. Most are nonhunters. Among nonhunters, black rifles, full-sized pistols, and CCW pistols are the most popular guns.
In 1994, the AWB did three things: it drove many gun-owning Dems to vote for repub challengers out of protest, it caused many gun-owning Dems to say "screw them" and stay home on election day, and it mobilized repub-leaning gun owners to donate/volunteer/campaign/vote like crazy.
BTW, if you have been in General Discussion lately, imagine how the rhetoric about owners of nonhunting guns sounds to us. Or how the "allow guns for hunters and 'sportsmen' only" thing sounds if you're not among the small minority who hunt. If you own any full-sized 9mm pistol designed in the last 90 years, or any of the 30+ million rifles that would be affected, or a Ruger 10/22 or Remington 597 or 1100, and you see such discussion...or the new NY law with politicians and activists wanting to take it nationwide...you realize that you may have to make a very difficult choice between surrendering your prized possessions to fearmongers, or living for the rest of your life in fear of going to jail. That is deeply unsettling, and drives people to support legislators who won't present them with that Hobson's choice.
And the media isn't helping. There was a newspaper editorial from Iowa or somewhere a couple weeks ago that went viral on the gun boards, in which the paper opined that owners of "assault weapons" and over-10-round magazines should be disarmed without exception, and those who refuse to comply should be shot. Or that stunt where the NY paper published an interactive map of gun owners, with all their homes flagged on the map with their names and addresses. Not helpful.
I've yet to see any proposals that include full grandfathering of guns and magazines a la 1994; the gun control activists now call that a "loophole". In any case, a ban with full grandfathering isn't much of a ban when a quarter-billion banned items are in lawful circulation, even less so when you consider how much of the market a ban would drive underground. In Australia, 80% of the "assault weapons" in circulation went black, and the USA is unlikely to be more compliant than Australia. That is a hindrance only to lawful shooters, not to people with bad intentions.
Ms. Feinstein's favored approach for the last few years has been to push for confiscation from the family upon the death of the owner, via prohibiting transfers, and I've seen a push in this direction in the last month. And I believe New York's just-passed law is "get rid of them, emigrate, or go to prison if we catch you."
So did Bill Clinton, unfortunately, which is what led to his whole AWB miscalculation. He did raise that support, and sustained just long enough to get the Feinstein law passed. After that, it was inevitable that the people it screwed would feel betrayed and would work against it; we were slapped in the face by it every time we opened our gun cabinets, every time we went to a range, every time we went to a gun store. The current AWB proposals screw several times more voters than in 1994, and screw them harder, so I would expect the backlash to be worse.
Honestly, I don't think licensing and registration wouldn't be all that controversial if gun control advocates weren't trying to outlaw popular guns and make ownership much more difficult. Look what NY and Illinois gun owners have gotten for accepting licensure: demonization in the press, near-annual threats of de-licensure/confiscation, and on the whole less gun rights.
On the other hand, gun owners in most states have accepted shall-issue carry licensure pretty well---*because* it is shall-issue, we are currently powerful enough to prevent criteria creep, and you don't get anything confiscated if you let it lapse.
Thing is, though, the NRA is only 4.5 million gun owners out of probably 40-50 million who would be affected by these bans. And our disapproval of said bans has nothing to do with the NRA, and everything to do with the ban proposals themselves.
FWIW, I'm not a member of the NRA. I used to be a few years ago, but let my membership lapse when they started to get too cozy with cultural conservatism. F*** that.
My intended parallel to Prohibition was that the "temperance" movement pushed the 18th Amendment under the pretense that it was only about banning "intoxicating liquors", i.e. distilled beverages that were particularly dangerous to society. Then the Volstead Act defined "liquors" as anything with more than 0.5% alcohol by volume, thereby banning wine and beer and other non-distilled drinks. That to me is not that different from asking people about "military weapons of war intended to kill lots of people at once and mostly owned by extremists," then pushing a ban on the most popular (and in many cases, least misused) civilian firearms in the United States.
There are other parallels, though. Prohibition failed because a substantial minority of the populace disagreed with the ban strongly enough to violate it. You'd see that with an AWB as well. As I recall, Australia only got about 20% compliance with their AWB, with the other 80% of "assault weapons" going black; do you expect a higher compliance rate in *this* country? In the case of "assault weapons" and >10-round magazines, you are talking about 200+ million items owned by 40-50 million people here.
As to cosmetic-or-not, yes, the original 1994 non-ban was purely cosmetic/ergonomic. It was certainly a severe annoyance that reminded you of its ineffable stupidity ever time you picked up a gun or went to the range. But it didn't really affect magazine capacity too much (at least for rifles), the restrictions were laughable in terms of functionality, and it could easily be flouted by anyone who chose to (as I recall, there was not a single prosecution between 1994 and 2004 of any individual who violated the 2-features test, and folding stocks and whatnot were freely sold).
This time around, the proposals go much, much further. They are going for an absolute ban on "black rifles" even stricter than California's, not just a 2-features test; they are going for absolute prohibition of pistol grip stocks, adjustable stocks, and all over-10-round magazines; they are going after bulk and mail-order ammunition sales, which directly targets competitive shooters and collectors; and they are going for draconian prosecution for violations (10 to 25 years in prison, in some bills). And the advocates have shown that even the pre-Civil-War 10-round limit is not their end goal; NY just passed a 7-round limit.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)If you told people that the limit was 10 rounds, I would guess almost all of the "yes" responses would think "why does anyone need more than 10 rounds".
You are assuming that all or even most gun owners are highly, umm, enthusiastic and would get really upset over an AWB. I would contend that this is a minority. A lot of people might think of it as a nuisance, but not some cataclysmic loss of freedom. Some might even think of it as a reasonable tradeoff for public safety. In the same way that not all people who own dividend-paying stocks are opposed to taxing dividends as ordinary income.
For example, here is a poll (I think taken after Tucson) where over 50% of gun households responded in favor of banning high-capacity magazines. So that means that either 50% of gun owners aren't paying enough attention to know what high-capacity means in the political context, or they do and don't care. But either way, they aren't people who would be up in arms about an AWB. And, incidentally, only 17% of gun owners were "strongly opposed".
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/Bloompoll.pdf
Having to replace a 15-round magazine with a 10-round magazine is not "surrendering your prized possessions to fearmongers". Neither is having to register your AR-15. Or even, like in Australia, having it bought back by the government. Your rhetoric is way over the top -- you're acting like the government is stealing property.
New York requires registration of existing banned guns. I don't know what Obama is proposing, but I'm pretty sure it's not going to be a mandatory buyback. The death of the owner seems like a small detail, but I'd imagine that if the transfer is prohibited, then the estate will get financial reimbursement. None of this is "draconian".
Another thing I don't get is the constant fear of gun control advocates and the looming gun confiscation. Gun rights are not under any legitimate threat at all. Even with NY's new law, it's not really a big deal. So you can't own certain rifles, and your magazines can only hold seven rounds. So?
I'm pretty sure the NRA would oppose licensing and registration under any circumstances. They even opposes things like universal background checks, or funding of gun violence research.
Yeah, I don't find the analogy very compelling. Guns and alcohol are different in many essential ways. Besides, we're not actually talking about an outright ban. Or anything even close to that. Over 0.5% means basically any alcoholic beverage. An beverage with less than 0.5% alcohol is like a muzzle-loading rifle.
If I were a gun owner and I had the choice between buying a legal gun from a gun store, or buying a similar gun from an illegal gun trafficker that had a few extra features on it, I'd go with the legal gun every time. I'm not sure where you got the Australia numbers from, but from what I gather the buyback is generally considered to have been successful.
jimmy the one
(2,708 posts)ezra: The polls show much, much weaker support for an AWB and magazine restrictions now than in 1994. Were you following the issue then?
Subjective, polls today are running about 55 - 60% for an assault rifle ban which is still majority support. Are you advocating ruling from behind?
2. The 1994 law that cost the trifecta didn't even ban any guns, didn't affect the capacity of available rifle magazines (because it allowed unlimited importation of surplus STANAG and Warsaw Pact mags),
Huh? run that underlined stuff by me again pls, slower.
The 1994 law .. didn't prevent you from legally buying as many 15/20/30/whatever-round magazines as you wanted for your pistol or rifle.
You must not've seen the OP jpak posted, if it didn't prevent, it inhibited, which is also 'good': During the 10-year federal ban on assault weapons, the percentage of firearms equipped with high-capacity magazines seized by police agencies in Virginia dropped, only to rise sharply once the restrictions were lifted in 2004, analysis Washington Post.
In Virginia,.. the rate at which police recovered firearms with high-capacity magazines mostly handguns and to a smaller extent rifles began to drop around 1998, four years into the ban. It hit a low of 9% of the total number of guns recovered the year the ban expired, 2004.
The next year {2005, the first full year stats since awb exp'd sep04}, the rate began to climb and continued to rise in subsequent years, reaching 20% in 2010, In the period The Post studied, police in Virginia recovered more than 100,000 firearms, more than 14,000 of which had high-capacity magazines.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/data-point-to-drop-in-high-capacity-magazines-during-federal-gun-ban/2013/01/10/d56d3bb6-4b91-11e2-a6a6-aabac85e8036_story.html
ezra: And oh yeah, it banned marketing of new civilian guns under any of 19 banned names. -- out of near 800 total rifles, or left about 97% of total rifles unaffected.
3. AR's and over-10-round magazines are FAR more popular now than in 1994.
True; ordinary civilians wanting to pretend they're as well armed as soldiers fighting wars & stuff, while never having to actually serve in a war, or join the army navy or marines, or join a militia, or, real combat type stuff. They just want to pretend they're a really 'well armed militia', ready for anything.
Today, using the working definitions being discussed, a ban on "assault weapons" and over-10-round magazines would be affecting 30+ million guns and 200+ million magazines owned by 40-50 million citizens of voting age.
30 million firearms would be high balling the estimate on assault rifles (dunno about pistols if it applies), low ball estimates are about 10million, with 2 or 3 million ar15s;
50 million gun owners is again highballing & likely absurd. Personal gun ownership has been declining past decade & is now about 30% of americans own a gun, down from 35%. What is occurring is existing gun owners are buying more & more of the yearly brand new guns, to feed their addiction or fetish about guns.
All those 60 million new guns the past 8 years or so have been largely going to existing gun owners. So any guncontrol regs wouldn't affect 40 - 50 million 'citz.' who would likely moreso support the regs.
benEzra
(12,148 posts)Huh? run that underlined stuff by me again pls, slower.
Sorry for the jargon. STANAG magazines = magazines that comply with NATO STANAG 4179, a set of standard dimensions for the interface between a magazine and the receiver of a firearm. A standard magwell allows all kinds of different small arms to use the same magazines. Warsaw Pact (q.v.) magazine dimensions in various calibers were similarly standardized, and likewise fit a whole boatload of military and civilian guns.
There were hundreds of millions of them warehoused all over the world, and the 1994 AWB allowed them to be freely imported with no restrictions. Hence after the initial panic wore off, standardized AR and AK magazines ended up cheaper and more abundant 1994-2004 than pre-'94, as I recall. Before the declining dollar under Bush II made imports more expensive, I was buying AK magazines for $9.99/ea for 30's, and $5.99/ea for the 20's that I preferred, in 2003. My 2002 AK came with a 40-round RPK magazine which was a bit of a collectible even then, even more so now. I wasn't into FAL's or the other .308's, but I understand that FAL and CETME magazines were like $2.99/ea for 20-rounders at the same time.
True; ordinary civilians wanting to pretend they're as well armed as soldiers fighting wars & stuff, while never having to actually serve in a war, or join the army navy or marines, or join a militia, or, real combat type stuff. They just want to pretend they're a really 'well armed militia', ready for anything.
If that's why you think gun owners own 15-30 round magazines, or prefer aluminum-and-zytel centerfire .22's to walnut-and-steel .30's, then no wonder you take the position you do.
I suppose all those people who own bolt-action military-style Mauser derivatives like the Winchester Model 70 see themselves as doughboys storming the trenches, or white-feathers sniping the rice paddies? And those who shoot lever-action Henry derivatives see themselves as Civil War cavalry? Please.
I used to shoot a Ruger Mini-14 Ranch Rifle; I now shoot a Rock River carbine in a configuration that has never been used by any military on this planet (16" barrel, midlength flattop upper, Wilson match barrel, no automatic capability). The difference between the Ruger and the Rock River is accuracy, ergonomics, and looks. Though I'm sure you consider the Ruger an "assault weapon" also...
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)And yes, I intentionally replaced "gum" with "gun" ... seemed appropriate.
Undaunted
(22 posts)michdem56
(2 posts)This gave them a great way to side step, the jobs bill, and the budget. I feel very sad about whats happen with all the bad things, but please, one thing at a time.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)He can do Gun control and the budget at the same time. Welcome to DU.
Yes, I know we do, but do they know that? For what they get paid, they should have it all under control.
BainsBane
(53,135 posts)90% of Americans support universal background checks. 60% support the assault weapons ban, an increase even from the polling following Sandyhook. The NRA has succeeded in pushing the public to embrace more gun control because they are so out of touch with reality. You and they are very much in the minority of public opinion. Joe Scarborough thinks GOP stonewalling in gun control will cost them the House. He believes thus because of reaction by conservative gun owners in his former district who don't think any law abiding person needs an assault weapon. My brother-in-law's family of hunters feel the same way. A majority of gun owners support the presidents measures. You may be living in a 1994 mindset, but the rest if the country is not.
See the Daily Kos Seiu gun control poll as one reference, but there are newer polls with similar results.
gejohnston
(17,502 posts)how many people actually know what an "assault weapon" is? The misinformation campaign to describe them as machine guns come to mind. (five rounds a second, rapid fire etc) and some of the actual laws written.
Joe's old district is the Florida panhandle, AKA "Fucking Lower Alabama"
the 23 measures is supported by the NSSF. The NRA supported the same ideas, just before now and would be cool if the POTUS had an R.
BainsBane
(53,135 posts)were talking about electoral politics. The poll wasn't accompanied by NRA talking points. Assault guns are what the eventual bill that passes defines them to be. The logical thing for you to do is read the polls yourself, provided you actually care how the questions were asked or what the American public thinks.
"Fucking lower Alabama" is as conservative and pro-gun as it gets. Those are your peeps. They know they have guns for hunting, but don't feel the need to mow down dozens of 6 year olds. I think we can assume they Probably know as much about guns as many here. And the rest of us just don't give a flying fuck. We don't like guns that make it easy to slaughter dozens of people without reloading, and we can imagine no reason why a law-abiding, sane person would want one.
To make it clear, I wandered in the gungeon by accident. So your list of acronyms is meaningless to me. I understand I'm on enemy ground so can't expect standard writing, but I thought I'd let you know.
Actually, upon rereading the second part of your post, I'm thinking my unfamiliarity with gun jargon isn't why I can't understand your writing. I'll wish you a good night.
gejohnston
(17,502 posts)I'm saying those folks in FLA, own those guns and I question Joe's honesty.
Were the questions accompanied by VPC talking points?
iiibbb
(1,448 posts)BainsBane
(53,135 posts)Just wondering why paying attention to public opinion means trivializing gun culture to you? Are you asserting your views are more important than the majority of the population because you are armed? The majority of gun owners support the very proposals the president advances. No one is trivializing gun culture. That term can mean a lot of things. Evidently you don't think most gun owners are part of gun culture, since you imply paying attention to their views amounts to trivializing gun culture.
iiibbb
(1,448 posts)and if you think people aren't trivializing gun culture, then I am touched that you've only been reading my posts...
... because if you read the general flow of posts on the RKBA forum, you will see ample examples of people taking liberties with attacking gun owners as a group... try any of JPAK's threads.
Try any of the threads demanding that we all be called felons.
I assert nothing. All I can tell you is that being a true moderate who holds no loyalty to Republicans or Democrats... trivialize me. Trivialize people like me... whatever. We made Republicans pay...we can make Democrats pay. Whichever way the pendulum needs to swing at the time.
BainsBane
(53,135 posts)This is only the second thread in RKBA I've taken part in. I try to avoid the place. So I can't speak with any knowledge about what transpires here. I was responding only to your response to my post about public opinion.
I don't know what you mean by gun culture, since as the poll I mentioned indicates, gun owners support gun control.
I will confess to having little respect for those who oppose the kind of gun control efforts supported by the Democratic Party, but that is not the same as trivializing it. It is difficult to trivialize the heavily armed.
iiibbb
(1,448 posts), especially if you indulge preconceived notions about them, then you risk marginalizing them...
You should take note of some of the things that transpire here. It is a microcosm of an issue that is far less black and white as you think.
Clinton knows... take heed of it
BainsBane
(53,135 posts)No. I've asked your views. You haven't demonstrated enough interest in me to do the same. I don't understand why owning guns makes you more important than everyone else.
I'm having trouble understanding your point here. Again, the post to which you responded pointed out that the majority of Americans support the same control measures advanced by the President. You respond by warning me to take heed not to trivialize "gun culture," yet you still haven't said what you mean by that. Clearly it doesn't simply mean those who own guns since your response was to a post linking to a poll that shows the majority of guns owners actually support those same reforms. What are we supposed to heed? Are you suggesting we are in physical danger from "gun culture," whatever that is, if congress passes legislation you don't like? Do you assert that your guns trump the democratic process and the will of the people?
iiibbb
(1,448 posts)Opinion polls aren't the whole story. Clinton knows.
If you are not part of the cadre marginalizing gun owners then we've got no quarrel... only a discussion point about the meaning of polls. If you think gun owners are not, mostly, regular people, then you risk not seeing what Clinton is saying.
BainsBane
(53,135 posts)that assault weapons are insane and no one needs them. I think you've invented a straw man here. The poll surveys gun owners, just as it surveys those who don't own guns. Polls never get to know anyone. They are simple surveys of public opinion at a particular point in time.
I have no problem with gun owners. I live in a state where hunting is common. The problem is the gun lobby and those who support their efforts to block reform.
I don't see why the feelings of gun owners need any more nurturing than anyone else. You're adults, perfectly capable of advancing your own interests, whatever those may be. And if you field a few insults, welcome to the club. Everyone does. Owning guns doesn't make you exempt from the ravages of internet discourse.
iiibbb
(1,448 posts)...because it did happen.
The laws that were past in NY are not focused only on "assault weapons" and go well over. These laws are going to be held over the Democrats heads at the national level as a direction they want to take the whole country. You may not care about the details of the NY laws... but I guarantee that a law that creates uncertainty among owners of even lever actions, or declares that possession of items that 90% of gun owners in the state might have (>7 round magazines)... among other things, is not going to be ignored by gun owners who might have previously agreed with you.
Or you could just listen to Clinton... because he knows of what he speaks.