Warnings, Indications, and Recriminations - US, ROK, DPRK Policy

[soryang]

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten 3.27) North Korea,- Kim Jong Un missile signal. Bulguksong missile series: Bulguksong-1, submarine launched variant, 2500 km max range; Bulguksong- 2, land based variant, 2000 km max range; and Bulguksong-3, test pending? submarine launched variant, unknown range.

The presentation by Victor Cha before a Senate subcommittee on March 26 was mentioned in a Channel A News broadcast covering the indications of possible Bulguksong ballistic missile launch preparations, given electronic reconnaissance findings and allegedly other reports. Channel A News Top Ten reported today that US RC- 135 electronic reconnaissance aircraft have detected telemetry coming from North Korea characteristicly associated with Bulguksong missile tests. This is the line that Channel A News analysis quoted favorably from Victor Cha in reference to the earlier Sohae space launch site restoration activities by North Korea reported shortly after the Hanoi Summit:

"This does not suggest that a rocket launch or nuclear test is imminent, but it does suggest that the situation could take a turn downwards before a resumption of diplomacy"

https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/032619_Cha_Testimony.pdf

So the electronic signaling is being taken by Channel A news analysts, as well, as an indirect indication suggesting that North Korea is attempting to induce the US to return to the negotiating table. The Bulguksong (North Star) missile series which includes submarine launched variants, is a solid fuel missile and is a more viable ground based missile tactically speaking because of short preparation times for firing which does not include the need to fuel up as with liquid fueled missiles like the Musudan.


(Source- Channel A News Top Ten 3.27) Graphic depicts location of missile development center in Sinheung, South Hamgyong Province, North Korea. The Bulguksang- 2 is regarded as the representative solid fueled ballistic missile of North Korea.

However, Cha's presentation on the path forward after Hanoi, characteristicly avoided the primary issue in the negotiations often evaded or omitted in discussions by US Asian policy experts. This principal issue in negotiations which the US and North Korea can't get past involves whether the "all or nothing," so called "one bundle" diplomatic approach favored by the US rather than a phased, step by step approach, with simultaneous reciprocal concessions to build trust, favored by both Koreas, China, and Russia, should be followed. The latter is a fundamentally differing view on how negotiations should proceed as a practical trust building method, rather than the interminable dispute on both sides on who is responsible for distrust and acts in the past, obstructing or derailing the nuclear negotiations progress.

Cha talks about the dilemma of American "reasonableness" and to expect allies to request changes in the US position. The only ally publicly asking the US to change its uncompromising and impractical one sided approach is South Korea. Currently, relations are at a low point which has been evident in the failure of the Secretary of State to accept a request by the ROK Foreign Minister Kang Kyung Hwa to meet with him and a message to South Korea from the US State department, to the effect that if you are coming to talk about Kumgangsan and Kaesong don't bother. Another angry remark by Pompeo himself last December toward the Blue House National Security Adviser, Chung Eui-yong, calling him "a liar," was also made public this week, as reported by Channel A News yesterday, in an escalation of recriminations and ill consideration toward the ally most directly affected by US diplomatic blundering, and the lack of a more constructive approach.


(Source- Channel A News Top Ten 3.26) Story 2 - Delicate US ICBM intercept test conducted. US State Department source (to South Korea): If you are going to talk about the reopening of the Kumgansan Tourist site, or restarting operations at the Kaesong joint industrial site (in North Korea), Washington says don't come.

The US ICBM intercept in the Pacific referred to in the graphic was reported earlier this week.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/117811927