California coastal warming 'due to wind not humans'

[adirondacker]

"An "eye-opening" new study shows changing wind patterns in the Pacific, not greenhouse gases, are responsible for rising temperatures on the US west coast over the last century

The heating up of America's west coast over the last century has been mostly caused by natural alterations in wind patterns rather than climate change brought about by humans, according to a new study.

Between 1900 and 2012 temperatures have increased by about one degree Fahrenheit in coastal areas along the Pacific Ocean.

In California, 2014 is on course to be the hottest year since records began and almost the entire coastline is in a state of "exceptional drought".

But a new study carried out by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Washington concluded that this was not caused by a build up of greenhouse gases.

Instead, they found it was mainly due to changes in ocean and wind circulation patterns which could affect temperatures over periods lasting longer than a century. When the winds drop less water evaporates and temperatures rise. "

<SNIP>
"He added: "This doesn't say that global warming is not happening. It doesn't say human-caused climate change isn't happening globally. It's a regional story. The climate system isn't that simple. History has been playing tricks on us.""

By Nick Allen
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11119363/California-coastal-warming-due-to-wind-not-humans.html

Interesting!

[dhill926]

1. whatever the hell it is…..

been beyond beautiful on the Central Coast lately….almost feel guilty about it….

[adirondacker]

2. I'm JEALOUS!

I was supposed to be in Santa Cruz nearly a decade ago...but Life got in the way.
now I'm aiming for Barcelona,Spain in my 60's to make up for it

[dhill926]

3. thinking Barcelona would be a great place….

good luck with that!

[JayhawkSD]

4. Which rather begs the question.

What caused the "natural alterations in wind patterns" to occur?

[adirondacker]

5. That was my initial thought as well. It would be interesting to read the literature to see how they

delineated the cause and effects. I'm assuming that what they were looking at was sea surface temps, water column, and wind and extrapolating the direct influence on coastal water temperatures. less wind = less upwelling and less open ocean influence and not a direct effect from sea temp rise.

Curious study nevertheless.

[marym625]

7. That's exactly what I was going to say

It makes little sense not to think that the changes in glaciers, which causes difference in water temperature, air temp, etc didn't cause this shift.

[GliderGuider]

10. Same question here.

[ffr]

22. Glad so many of us were thinking, but wait, huh? What?

Good call!

[bananas]

6. The Seattle Times has links to the paper

The Telegraph quotes a Seattle Times article,
I googled for it and it has links to the paper:
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2024601865_climateweatherstudyxml.html

[marym625]

8. Thanks for the link. eom

[adirondacker]

12. Thanks!

it was late when I posted:/

[marym625]

9. There's another post out there

About the increase in storms at the poles. I can't tell if the 2 studies are linked. Do you know if they are? And is it possible that the storms at the poles caused the shift in the wind temperature?

[adirondacker]

11. I think this study is a regional observation and the authors have concluded that the earlier part of

the 20th century indicated a strong influence of the current conditions driving temperatures.

[marym625]

15. the study also says that

the earlier the data, the less reliable it is.

Was just curious about a link between the studies.

thank you!

[adirondacker]

16. I understand the curiosity.

The earlier data is less reliable to a certain degree (pun intended). Using mercury thermometers with sparse readings vs recent digital technology with vast and fairly dense readings taken aboard numerous ships along with fixed stations. The authors, I'm fairly certain, took this into consideration with the statistics involved.

caveat I'm not a climatologist, but I have worked with installing sensors (ARGOS) and data collection (shipboard) in the past.

[marym625]

17. Oh, that's not my assumption

about the earlier data being less reliable. The study says that. I would never have thought that all by my ownself. I am not even close to a climatologist. I haven't even played one on TV!

Thanks for explaining why that data is less reliable. I wondered about that.

[adirondacker]

18. Assumptions...

well you know the rest of the line

I'm as guilty as the rest.
I can recall a cruise that involved the reading of fluorescence. The scientists were baffled as to why there was a peak in the middle of the night. The readings were constant and there were various hypothesis jumping around for days. Someone was brilliant enough to ask the engineers when the waste tanks of the ship were being emptied. They happened to correlate well with the time the jumps in readings were occurring

[marym625]

19. HA HA HA

That's hilarious!

[JayhawkSD]

13. And so what caused the storms at the poles?

We can play this game forever, and I'll bet it still winds up coming back to a net energy gain in the planet.

[adirondacker]

14. Sometimes an orange is an orange.

There are beaches that erode under natural occurring isostatic conditions that have nothing to do with sea level rise. It doesn't discount that there is a Real element of anthropogenic influence among many coastal erosion issues globally.

I'm not jumping to any extrapolated conclusions on this study, but I also believe that humans do have a strong influence on what is taking place regarding the overall climate.

[hunter]

20. The "Real element of anthropogenic influence" is that humans build on eroding coastlines.

How crazy is that?

It's like building on flood plains.

Or burning fossil fuels and filling the air with greenhouse gases.

Or increasing our population beyond what the environment can comfortably support.

Or treating naturally fluctuating water resources as something constant.

Or expecting "fossil" aquifers to replenish themselves.

Etc., etc..

There are so many oranges that are oranges. Human behavior is odd. We often act surprised when the orange turns out to be an orange.

[adirondacker]

21. I'm a strong proponent that Environemntal Science should be taught in high school.

Even on a "basic" level. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand the implications...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017217079

[JayhawkSD]

23. About that 100 year flood plain.

Tucson had massive floods in, I think it was, 1993 or so. The 100 year flood plain was devastated. In 1995 people started building on that plain and I said, "Wait, don't you recall what happened here just two years ago?"

The reply was, "Well we're okay for 98 years, because it's a 100 year flood plain." Idiots are born every day, and they spend money.