Learning From The Drought Of '12 - Interesting Piece On Agriculture, Local & Otherwise
The news outlets love a good disaster, and we've all been informed daily of the mega-drought in the Midwest. Three quarters of the US corn crop is under severe drought. Corn prices are up over 50% in the last month, soybeans are up almost 30%, and the USDA says they are still assessing the damage. No rain in sight yet and when combined with record low carryover stocks, we're probably looking at another record spike in prices. What I haven't heard in the news is any discussion over whether we have other options to avoid these increasingly regular crop disasters.
What happens to the crops in the Midwest impacts the world. All grain prices will be up. Meat, milk and egg prices will rise too, because of the animals dependence on these feed commodities. This year grain producing areas of the US have been hit hard. Last year it was the Mexican vegetables and southern US livestock. Since 2007, climate model predictions of increased weather variability are playing out in the real world. We can expect bumper harvests in between the crop failure years.
Farmers also have the extra burden of shouldering the other of the Twin Trends -- input price increases. As fossil energy production has leveled out since 2005, prices have increased, affecting the prices paid for fertilizers, chemicals, machinery, and seeds (which take energy to make). Along side the Twin Trends of increasing weather variability and increasing energy costs, we will have the Twin Crises of 1) increasing food prices and 2) falling farmer profits . Experts on climate and energy see no let-up in these trends.
People are asking,~ How can we keep food affordable (especially healthy food), and keep the business of farming profitable? The cost of food is bound to increase from historic low costs, but 'healthy' food will increase less than 'unhealthy' food if we allow market forces to work. By 'healthy food' I mean food grown with a low use of fossil energy and grown close to market -- which will have the leg up on its 'unhealthy' industrial competition. Since 2005, and the sudden escalation of the Twin Trends, the local food movement has been growing steadily. New young farmers are locating in and around our cities, direct marketing to customers through CSAs, farmer's markets, and restaurants.
EDIT
http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2012-07-26/learning-drought-12
= new reply since forum marked as read
