As EV demand rises, here's what the future holds for gas cars

[Think. Again.]

Michelle Lewis | Sep 14 2023
Full Article: https://electrek.co/2023/09/14/ev-demand-future-gas-cars/

The End of the ICE Age

RMI says that gas car sales peaked in 2017 and have been falling at 5% a year since then. By the end of this decade, gas car sales will fall to between 14 million and 38 million cars a year. (a level of 14-38% of sales by 2030.)

Link to RMI report: https://rmi.org/insight/x-change-cars/

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RMI assumes the life of a car to be around 15 years. Over the past decade, RMI writes, the number of gas cars scrapped annually has been between 40 and 50 million. But using historical data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), RMI estimates that the gas car scrappage rate will climb to between 60 and 70 million annually by 2030, based on the number of gas car sales 15 years ago, which was at around 80 million. (Scrappage is another recycling challenge that is going to need to be urgently addressed.)

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And, the researchers say, since gas cars account for around 25% of global oil demand (and made up more than 33% of oil demand growth between 2010 and 2019), demand for oil is also going to freefall in the future, thanks to EV adoption and efficiency.

And here’s the exciting bombshell from this report: By the 2040s, RMI says that the oil demand from the car sector will fall to zero.

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Full Article: https://electrek.co/2023/09/14/ev-demand-future-gas-cars/

Link to RMI report: https://rmi.org/insight/x-change-cars/

[Miguelito Loveless]

1. I have been driving EVs since 2014

and nothing could entice me to go back to gasoline.

[CoopersDad]

2. I was Prius Volt Tesla

I really loved the Volt but am glad I installed an oversized charging station in anticipation of my Model 3, that retails now for less than a Prius or even a Corolla.

And, $12,500 in incentive helps!

[Miguelito Loveless]

3. We were Leaf, Volt, Tesla

The Volt is an under appreciated gem.