NOAA Issues El Nino Watch - 62% Chance Warming Will Develop Sometime Between May And July

[hatrack]

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Nino Watch this morning as part of its April ENSO outlook.

A watch is issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Nino within the next six months. While we are still in an ENSO-neutral phase – when no El Nino or La Nina is present – there is a 62% chance El Nino will develop sometime between May and July. This comes after nearly two continuous years of a La Nina.
El Nino: What it is and why it matters

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (or ENSO) is a climate pattern defined by sea surface temperature and precipitation departures from normal across the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can influence weather and climate patterns across the U.S. and around the world.

El Nino is the warm phase of ENSO when ocean temperatures are warmer and precipitation is greater than normal in the area spanning the central to eastern Pacific Ocean.

NOAA scientists will continue to monitor the potential development of El Nino and will issue the next monthly update on May 11, 2023.

EDIT

https://www.noaa.gov/news/what-to-watch-for-el-nino-likely-to-develop-summer

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. Summer 2021 and Winter 2021-22 were quite extreme for us on Vancouver island

Several heat waves over 100 (normal summer highs are in low 90’s)
And the following winter had much higher than normal snow dumps at sea level

In comparison, Summer 2022 was milder and more typical, as was winter 2022-23.

But according to the article, both years were part of La Niña?

So, what should one expect from El Niño?