Did Colombians actually reject the peace deal? Not if you look at the statistics.
Did Colombians actually reject the peace deal? Not if you look at the statistics.
By Michael Spagat and Neil Johnson
October 5 at 12:02 PM
The official line is that the “no” vote won the referendum in Colombia. The internationally lauded peace treaty with the FARC guerillas was rejected, and now nobody knows what the country’s fate will be.
But did “no” actually win?
The numbers divide four ways, rather than just two “no” and “yes” answers: 6,431,376 against the treaty, 6,377,482 in favour, 86,243 unmarked ballots and 170,946 nullified ballots.
The referendum process itself was without doubt transparent and fair, and Colombia can be truly proud of it. But there were nonetheless several inevitable sources of statistical error in the counting process that could have swamped the razor-thin victory margin of 53,894. This means that saying “no” definitively won is statistically incorrect.
First, the counting methods. Votes were recorded on pieces of paper and hand-counted in the evening by people who must have been exhausted after working the whole day at polling stations.
More:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/10/05/did-colombians-actually-reject-the-peace-deal-not-if-you-look-at-the-statistics/
Good Reads:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1016168008
