No, the race between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton isn't close

[BlueMTexpat]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-delegates-nomination-20160331-story.html

How bad is it for Bernie Sanders? A new survey in Wisconsin released today by the highly respected Marquette Law poll gave the Vermont senator a solid lead, 49 percent, to 45 percent for Hillary Clinton — which is terrible news for Sanders if he hopes to capture the nomination. That's because he would need to win by a much larger margin in Wisconsin — Nate Silver estimates a 16-percentage-point landslide — to get on pace to finish with more pledged delegates than Clinton.

And that's not the worst of it. In New York, where Sanders would need to win by 4 percentage points, the latest poll from Quinnipiac as Clinton beating Sanders by 12 percentage points. The situation is even worse in Pennsylvania.
...
He's exceeded what he needed to do in caucus states. But he's underperformed in primary states. That leaves him about 100 delegates short of where he would need to be at this point, and about 250 pledged delegates behind Clinton overall.
...
Sanders may win Wisconsin on April 5, and if he does, expect a full-scale freak-out by some sections of the press. Many reporters don't like Clinton much, but what really would matter is that the media has an interest in keeping the illusion of a competitive primary in place. Unless the polls are wrong and Sanders wins three-quarters of Wisconsin's delegates, don't believe it. There's only one competitive nomination battle in 2016, and it's not on the Democratic side.

[DemonGoddess]

1. K&R!

[BlueMTexpat]

2. This commentary relies on a March 30 article from

FiveThirtyEight.

It’s Really Hard To Get Bernie Sanders 988 More Delegates

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-really-hard-to-get-bernie-sanders-988-more-delegates/

To reach a pledged delegate majority, Sanders will have to win most of the delegates from those big states. A major loss in any of them could be fatal to his chances. He could afford to lose one or two of them narrowly, but then he’d need to make up ground elsewhere — he’d probably have to win California by double digits, for example.

Sanders will also need to gain ground on Clinton in a series of medium-sized states such as Wisconsin, Indiana, Kentucky and New Mexico. Demographics suggest that these states could be close, but close won’t be enough for Sanders. He’ll need to win several of them easily.

None of this is all that likely. Frankly, none of it is at all likely. If the remaining states vote based on the same demographic patterns established by the previous ones, Clinton will probably gain further ground on Sanders. If they vote as state-by-state polling suggests they will, Clinton could roughly double her current advantage over Sanders and wind up winning the nomination by 400 to 500 pledged delegates.

[Lucinda]

3. KNR