FiveThirtyEight now has a projection for California.

[Chichiri]

Projected vote share: Hillary 60.8%, Bernie 37.8%.

Hillary has an 86% chance to win.

The confidence intervals are EXTREMELY wide, so this could change dramatically as more polling comes in. You've been warned.

[hrmjustin]

1. Bernie will be hurt by the gop fight going to the end.

CA is an open primary.

[stopbush]

4. It's semi open.

Independents can't participate, IIRC. You have to be registered as "not affiliated" or as American Independent Party or as a D or R, ie: the AIP, Ds and Rs will accept a not affiliated voter to vote in their primaries. I don't think Rs can cross over and vote D.

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov//ccrov/pdf/2016/january/16036em.pdf

[hrmjustin]

5. That is good to know. No gopers in our primary.

[stopbush]

6. You have up til 15 days before June 7 to change your party affiliation in CA.

Independents wanting to vote for BS or Hill need to change to "not affiliated" to vote in the D primary.

[liberal N proud]

2. And the BSers can not declare Election Fraud

Ahead of the election they will claim that there is something wrong with the California primary.

[bluestateguy]

3. That's good

but it has to hold until June 7.

Does California have an early voting system? If so, how commonly used is it?

Got to bank those votes early.

[stopbush]

9. Early voting in CA starts May 9.

Last day to register is May 23; last day to request mail-in ballot May 31.

[LiberalFighter]

7. That is better than it was earlier.

So instead of 284-191 net 93
it should be about 293-182 net 111

[Treant]

8. I like using the

Polls-Only, which shrinks the spread considerably (the confidence intervals are, however, still just as wide). It shows a more narrow, but still quite solid, Clinton win.

[SharonClark]

10. It will change - California is a long way off