STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 17, 2016

[Chichiri]

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,606, Sanders 851 (Clinton +755).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,139, Sanders 825 (Clinton +314).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,139/1,050 (+89), Sanders 825/968 (-143).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.5% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 15: Clinton 371, Sanders 271 (Clinton +100); 49 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Clinton 371/365 (+6), Sanders 271/326 (-55).


Next Primary: March 22

Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.



Comments
For all my professed love of arithmetic, I made a couple of BIG errors in yesterday's SOTP. I'm not sure how or why, but I transposed Bernie's total delegate count (including superdelegates) into his versus targets count, thus giving him about 26 more pledged delegates than he already has. I also miscalculated, and/or misread my own calculation, about Hillary's percentage of pledged delegates remaining.

So please feel free to double check my math here:

4,051 total pledged delegates, minus Hillary's 1,139 pledged delegates, minus Bernie's 825 pledged delegates, equals 2,087 pledged delegates remaining to be allocated.

2,026 pledged delegates for a majority, minus Hillary's 1,139 pledged delegates, equals 887 pledged delegates that she needs for a majority.

887 delegates needed, divided by 2,087 delegates remaining, equals 0.425, or 42.5%.

Is that right?

One more comment. You wouldn't know it, but Bernie actually pulled off a great victory yesterday: 21 pledged delegates from Illinois are still unallocated, but if Bernie gains just five more, as seems likely given the close contest, then for the first time in this primary he will have beaten his own target in a state that demographically favors Hillary.

Too little too late, I believe, but I'm sure it will give hope to the dwindling number of Bernie supporters who think he can still win.



How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Mrs. Chichiri's Coin-Flipped NCAA Predictions
Colorado over Connecticut, California over Hawaii, Green Bay over Texas A&M, Providence over USC, Syracuse over Dayton.

[DemonGoddess]

1. K&R!

[Chichiri]

2. Vanity kick.

[Bleacher Creature]

3. I wish I could thank you each time you post these!

So just know that I really appreciate it!

[NurseJackie]

4. IMPRESSIVE numbers for Hillary ... DEPRESSING numbers for Bernie.

It won't be much longer now.

[Treant]

5. This is the point in the Primary

where I start checking my watch and seeing how long the candidate(s) who lost continue to hold out.

No, I'm not advocating that Sanders get out of the race, he can stay in as long as he wants. I'm just saying it's pretty close to pointless as of this St. Patrick's Day.

[NastyRiffraff]

6. Chichiri said:

"Comments
For all my professed love of arithmetic, I made a couple of BIG errors in yesterday's SOTP. I'm not sure how or why, but I transposed Bernie's total delegate count (including superdelegates) into his versus targets count, thus giving him about 26 more pledged delegates than he already has. I also miscalculated, and/or misread my own calculation, about Hillary's percentage of pledged delegates remaining."

Are you kidding? Me check YOUR math? Thanks for the SOTPs!