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(5,648 posts)
Tue Mar 1, 2016, 01:26 AM Mar 2016

The race to watch tomorrow is Oklahoma

We will be voting tomorrow in Alabama and plan to deliver the state to Hillary by a very large margin. And don't worry about the rest of the South, all of the Southern states are in the bag for Hillary. However, whether its basketball, football or politics, the saying goes when you have your opponent down it's time to finish him off. I want Hillary Clinton to emerge victorious tomorrow in every state but Vermont, and I even like to see her over perform in Sanders's home state.

Bernie has concentrated his efforts in the states his campaign thinks he might have a chance: Massachusetts, Minnesota and Oklahoma. I am not worried in the least about Massachusetts and Minnesota, but Oklahoma may be a problem.

Nate Silvers is giving a lot of weight to a new Monmouth University poll of Oklahoma which shows Sanders with a 5% lead. As a result Silvers has narrowed his prediction from a 77% chance of a Clinton victory two days ago to 51% chance of a Clinton victory today.

With Hillary's chances of victory at 51% and Sanders at 49% we're looking at a virtual toss up. So I am going to pay particular attention to the results in Oklahoma. We probably won't have any choice because I suspect that the other races will be called early, if not immediately, but expect it to be much later before Oklahoma can be called.

So if you know anyone in Oklahoma, give them a call and ask them to be sure and vote, unless of course you think they will vote for Bernie.

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The race to watch tomorrow is Oklahoma (Original Post) CajunBlazer Mar 2016 OP
Never stop fighting. Never take anything for granted. Get out the Vote for Hillary! SunSeeker Mar 2016 #1
It's at the top of my list too! Lucinda Mar 2016 #2
The two caucuses bear watching as well... Princess Turandot Mar 2016 #3
End this thing. Hillary has bigger fish to fry. oasis Mar 2016 #4

Princess Turandot

(4,797 posts)
3. The two caucuses bear watching as well...
Tue Mar 1, 2016, 01:50 AM
Mar 2016

Colorado and Minnesota, as they are more in line with Sander's preferred demographics, and have more delegates than OK. There's no 538 projection since the only polls for those states (IIRC) are from January in one case and November in the other, with HRC ahead in both.

FYI for awhile, the Sultans of Stats had BS chances in OK at more than 80% today, because of the Monmouth poll. Then another one from a few days earlier came in, and they also reduced the Monmouth's poll's weight.

Onward to the ides of March!

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