538 National Democratic Primary Polls (Hillary Group)

[CajunBlazer]

A number of posters have been indicating that Bernie has almost caught up to Hillary in the national poll. People in this group have been wondering how can that be if Hillary is ahead in most if not all of the state polls?

The answer is that unless you cherry pick some strange polls with different results from every other credible poll out there, Bernie Sanders in not not tied with or even close to Hillary Clinton in the National Polls.

Here is the latest results on the aggregation of 569 national polls over time from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com website weighted by Silver:

Clinton 49.6% Sanders 39.0% - Clinton +10.6%

To see the graph, click on the link below. Note: That while until recently Hillary's lead has been gradually narrowing, in the last few days the the graph lines are starting to diverge from one another which I believe means that Hillary's lead will be maintained nationally or it might grow in the coming days.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/national-primary-polls/democratic/

[bluestateguy]

1. Let the BS crowd live in their little fantasy world

Just like the Romney people and the fat Unskewed Polls guy living in his mother's basement in 2012.

[CajunBlazer]

2. Darn, that's no fun

[NurseJackie]

6. Stand by ... the fun ain't started yet.

[Capn Sunshine]

7. the magical thinking has gotten pretty bad

I'm hearing more and more from those in the campaign who repeat the Bernie position that his programs will be enacted because of public pressure. No real vision that gets you a bill on the President's desk. very little knowledge of how DC and the Presidency works. Mostly, it's how they WANT it to work, not what is there and has been for 480+ years.

Plus most of them have been completely subsumed by Hillary hate, as bad as any crypto fascist right winger. They are being fed a constant diet of lies and retread stuff from the Sciafes. Many actively seek it out. Others have fallen prey to the fake left websites created by Crossroads USA.

The result is a state of belief in a messiah, much like we saw on the fringes of the two Obama campaigns.

They want an outsider, not a career politician, they tell me. "but Bernie is a lifelong politician, in fact it's the only one he's ever had, and has been in Washington DC for over 20 years".

No response. Just blank stares like I'm missing the point.

[George II]

3. He's right where everyone expected him to be - mired in the 30s.

[Tarheel_Dem]

4. It's understandable what they're doing. To keep the donations flowing you have to juice your donors.

If they can make them believe there's a chance that BS can still pull off a miracle on Super Tuesday, the $$$$$$ will keep flowing. If you can't make them believe in miracles, the $$$$$ dries up.

It's a head game at this point, which is why I don't sweat it.

[CajunBlazer]

5. It's interesting...

I put up the same poll posts on GD-P and they generated little interest; no body commented. It was like ignoring them would let slip off of the front page quicker.

[Capn Sunshine]

8. That reminds me- have you heard about this?

Reviewing open secrets.org, apparently some $25 million in donations came from the same address at the same time. Hmmmm.

[Tarheel_Dem]

9. Is that what's being investigated? Didn't Bill Maher also violate FEC rules as well?

[Capn Sunshine]

10. I think the investigation is related to data theft

which , as it turns out, was kind of a big deal and NOT Hillary's fault despite their stance.

[Tarheel_Dem]

11. Oh, I see. I thought I had heard that there were some FEC donor violations under investigation. nt