No Dual Voting in NV (Hillary Clinton Group)

[Treant]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/270051-nevada-dems-threaten-prosecution-for-anyone-participating-in-caucuses-under

The party has threatened prosecution for anybody who votes twice, once in the Dem and once in the Rep primaries.

So although my title's a bit hyperbolic, at least it should reduce the ratty behavior a bit tomorrow...if there's one thing Repubs don't like, it's sunlight when they're trying to cheat.

[giftedgirl77]

1. What the ppl on this board cheerleading this dual voting nonsense

is that it's the definition of voters fraud & all they have to do is check both rolls. I don't understand why ppl can't grasp these things.

[Andy823]

6. I thing it proves that

A lot of those posting as "Bernie" supporters are not really who they claim to be. Encouraging voter fraud is a republican thing, not something a real Democrat would stoop to.

[giftedgirl77]

9. That's been obvious since before this election.

They are the same crew that claims to have voted for Obama twice but scream that he's a failure or sellout constantly.

[Andy823]

15. Yep,

Also the same group that complained anyone who supported Obama were "Obamabots", "following blindly", etc. and yet they have taken idol worship to a new level with their failure to admit when Bernie is wrong about something.

[BlueCaliDem]

19. Double standards: One for President Obama, One for Bernie Sanders.

And then they want us to take them seriously.

[George II]

17. You must be speaking of those who were declaring the Obama Presidency a failure by Jan. 21, 2009.

[Cha]

18. +1!

[BlueCaliDem]

20. +2 - Exactly. eom

[fleabiscuit]

12. Peeps are just concerned.

And they have endured so much crazy hurled at our POTUS and HRC that almost anything seems plausible.

[giftedgirl77]

13. I'm talking about the Sanders supporters that think this is a good thing.

[OhZone]

2. Good! Should cut down on the pro-Bernie cheating a bit. n/t

[workinclasszero]

3. Republicans trying like hell to get the weakest

Canidate to run against in the GE.

Bernie Sanders is their only hope.

[SunSeeker]

4. Good! nt

[jmowreader]

5. The people who would do this would also vote only for Bernie Sanders

HuffPo is showing Trump with 42 percent support, Cruz with 20.7 percent. Since electors are rationed proportionally to percentage of support, the campaigns could very well send a sizable chunk of their supporters to the Democratic caucus to stand for Bernie.

Question: if the GOP sent half their supporters statewide to caucus for Bernie, how many actual Democrats would have to also caucus for Bernie to throw the election his way? They obviously can't just go to Clark and Washoe Counties and tell the R's, "everyone go stand with the Bernie supporters on Saturday and stay away on Tuesday" because that would be too obvious.

[Treant]

8. Not very many.

Let's just play a real quick game with simple numbers, but the overall answer is, "Not very many people need to do this."

Caucus Goers, Democratic: 1000
Sanders supporters: 470 (47%)
Clinton supporters: 530 (53%)

The percentages are, I think, a bit extreme. I don't expect her to win by six percent in a clean game. But we'll run with it.

Republicans send 61 people (6.1% of Dem turnout) to caucus for Bernie:
Sanders supporters: 531 (50.04%)
Clinton supporters: 530 (49.96%)

It's oversimplified a lot, but roughly? Take the percentage by which Clinton would win in a clean caucus and multiply that by the number of Democratic voters.

The Republicans would need to send that many people...plus 1...for a just-barely-win for Sanders.

I notice that just over 10,000 people showed up in 2008 for the caucus state-wide in NV.

Therefore, if we expect a 6% Clinton win, the Republicans will need to send 601 people to the caucuses. Overall. But they would absolutely need to be apportioned correctly to just overcome a Clinton lead in each district, which means you want a safety.

Call it 1,200 to be completely sure.

[jmowreader]

11. It may be more than you think

I went to https://www.nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=4062 and ran the numbers...

As of right now, 1,203,095 voters are registered in Nevada. Of them, 423,308 are eligible to stand in the GOP caucus.

This leaves 780,597 that are eligible to stand in the Democratic one, because we allow same-day registration. Let's say HALF the 309,255 non-major-party voters show up tomorrow and we'll say they break 53/47 Clinton. And let's further assume (ha, ha) the entire eligible voting population shows up at the polls - which never happens.

So....
331,763 Clinton
294,206 Sanders

For the Republicans to effectively overthrow the election, they would need to send 40,000 to 50,000 people to our caucus. For them to beat her by enough to really fuck things up for Hillary, they need an easy 100,000 defectors - which is roughly a quarter of their total strength, and you KNOW that ain't gonna happen.

I suspect we're worrying about nothing and Hillary will beat Bernie by a modest number - five points.

[Treant]

14. I think

this announcement cuts down the number of crossovers we'll see, and the point is getting perilously close to resolved. We should have good data by 5 PM Eastern time tomorrow.

[dubyadiprecession]

7. There's a lot of uptight children pushing for Bernie and i don't think he knows how destructive..

they'll be to his campaign.

[pandr32]

10. But cheat they do

It's like a game, and it isn't only the Republicans that have been doing it.

[Andy823]

16. The party in Nevada

Needs to check out all the names that sign in, and then cross check it with those who are registered republicans. If they find matches, then they can obtain the names of republicans that vote in the republican caucus and see if any of them voted twice. If they voted twice, that is voter fraud.

[BlueCaliDem]

21. "If they voted twice, that is voter fraud." And a felony. May the Democratic Party go after them

HARD.