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book_worm

(15,951 posts)
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 09:52 AM Feb 2016

CNN Poll of Nevada--tight race

but also a very small sample. Bottom line is if our folks turnout we will win.

The race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders is deadlocked ahead of Saturday's Democratic caucuses, according to the results of the latest CNN/ORC poll from the state released Wednesday.

Clinton earned 48 percent to Sanders' 47 percent, with the former secretary of state leading among voters over the age of 55 and the Vermont senator picking up the support of more younger voters, echoing their supporting demographics in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Likely caucus-goers gave Clinton higher marks on issues related to foreign policy, health care, immigration and race relations, but on the economy, which 42 percent rated as the most important issue, Clinton and Sanders are knotted (with Clinton 48 percent, Sanders 47 percent). Among those who cited the economy as their top issue, Sanders leads by 9 points — 52 percent to 43 percent. The candidates are also effectively tied among likely caucus-goers who were asked which candidate would do more to help the middle class: 50 percent said Sanders would, while 47 percent said the same of Clinton...

Reliable polls of Nevada are scarce, and it should be noted that the CNN/ORC poll has small sample sizes. The poll was conducted by telephone from Feb. 10-15, surveying 282 likely Democratic caucus-goers, with a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points






Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/poll-nevada-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-219361#ixzz40QujhFYS

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Cha

(297,196 posts)
2. I read that the repubs can caucus with the Dems.. so if that's true then we know who they'll
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 09:58 AM
Feb 2016

go for.

Thank you, book!

BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts)
3. I had read that too.
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 10:08 AM
Feb 2016

In fact, I had heard that they can vote again in the GOP caucus, after they have already voted in the Dem caucus. This is apparently one of the many reasons that NV is so difficult to poll.

Here's the Wiki version of the process. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada_caucuses

Given that KKKarl Rove's PAC is active in NV, it is quite probable that there will be GOPers participating in the Dem cacucuses, specifically to knock Hillary out because she is the far more formidable Dem candidate. So I hope that Hillary's people in NV really have their acts together. They've been working hard and I hope that their hard work pays off.

Fingers very crossed.




Tommy2Tone

(1,307 posts)
5. Favoring Bernie for the economy?
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 10:20 AM
Feb 2016

That makes no sense. Has anyone seen anything in Santa Sanders message to show what anyone sees in his economic message. I am still waiting for any policy he could possibly enact period?

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
6. The pollsters do not have enough data from the past elections to make a great decision.
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 10:20 AM
Feb 2016

We will continue to work for the ultimate goal.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
8. I don't care how close it is as long as it's a win
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 10:46 AM
Feb 2016

Then Hillary will have won (no matter how close) in Iowa and Nevada while Bernie will have only won in his backyard. Then (hopefully) we will be moving on to a solid victory in South Carolina.

Cha

(297,196 posts)
9. I agree, WI_DEM.. I read the repubs can caucus with the Dems though and we know who they'll
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 10:54 AM
Feb 2016

go for if true.

stopbush

(24,396 posts)
10. I am confident that Hillary will win in NV.
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 11:16 AM
Feb 2016

LV is a union town, and she has all the unions behind her, except Culinary, which didn't endorse anyone. Union members tend to follow the lead of the union, more so in a caucus situation where all of your fellow union members know who you're voting for.

Hillary has a great ground game in NV. Sanders doesn't and is relying on a big TV ad buy to make up ground.

And this is a caucus, where the voting process takes hours. You must be registered as a D to vote in the NV Dem caucuses. Yes, you can change your party affiliation at the caucus site, but it all adds up to more time and effort to participate in a caucus than to vote in a primary.

To be honest, I think Hilliary will win by at least 5 points, maybe more.

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