NV, WY & NY: The Trifecta That Sealed Sanders' Doom

[stopbush]

Three primaries/caucuses that Sanders lost at crucial points in the race.

Imagine what might have been had Sanders backed up his landslide win in NH with a win in NV. He would have been up two victories to one, making Hillary's near-tie win in IA look like a loss. Even if Hillary had gone on to win SC and the other primaries she did win, the media narrative would have gelled around the "she's in big trouble, she's blowing it...again" meme. That would have meant weeks of questioning every Hillary win with the "yeah, but she lost NH & NV" trope.

Seen in retrospect, her win in NV was YUGE, probably the turning point in the race.

Then a few weeks ago, Hillary tied Sanders 7-7 in the pledged delegate distribution in WY (she won the delegate count 11-7 when the supers are included). This tie was also huge, because it was unexpected and it put a sudden stop to Sanders' run of consecutive wins in smaller states. I think this outcome was psychologically an even bigger win than OH, because it was truly unexpected.

And then this week came NY, a primary where Sanders guaranteed victory but had his clock cleaned as real Ds stepped up to declare who they overwhelmingly want to carry the flag for the Party in the GE. This win made it clear that you cannot buy the D nomination by throwing millions at TV ad buys, outdoor rallies and spinning like crazy. This win reaffirmed that real Ds still respond to the kind of retail politics upon which Hillary has built her march to victory. We aren't fooled by the lies and half-truths coming out of desperate campaigns who spend more time trashing the D Party than they do the Rs, and whose response to their opponent spending the time needed to build real relationships is to write a big check for negative TV ads.

NV, WY & NY - the three contests that hammered the nails into the Sanders campaign and set Hillary on the road to the White House.

[BlueMTexpat]

1. While I love the OP, I wonder whether

you mean to say WY instead of WI.

[stopbush]

2. Yes. Typo. I'll fix it.

Thanks.

(Note to self: drink coffee before posting)

[BlueMTexpat]

3. I've done the same on occasion!

Have a long drink!

[stopbush]

4. Truth be told, I'm still not 100% sure on all of the two-letter

abbreviations for the states. Those things were adopted more than a few years after I got my start in this world. Old habits etc.

(Insert old person emoticon here)

[charlyvi]

5. Iowa = IA, not IO

[stopbush]

6. Ha! Like I said. I'm clueless. I'll fix that, too.

Thanks.

[Treant]

7. Although in all fairness

Clinton probably would have won a Primary on Io as well.

[stopbush]

9. I understand Sanders is heading there to see if the polls are

in his favor.

He doesn't care about delegates, but if the polls have him beating the bacterial lifeforms under the surface of Io, that's all one needs to go on to allow him to be the D nominee.

[Cha]

8. Thank you for your analysis, stop. I know I loved it when

we tied Wyoming and actually won with our Super Dels.

And, Nevada.. with all the tricks they tried to pull there.. we still won.. and then Texas!

Those Huge BS rallies in New York didn't pull in the votes. Hillary won in all the Districts where he held the rallies. So it didn't matter if it were 11,000 or 27,000.. they didn't manifest into votes.

His desperate act of chartering and jetting off to the Vatican didn't help a whiff, either. It's all smoke and mirrors.. he deserved to lose.

And, New York came through for Hillary their former Senator. And, Illinois came through for her, too.. where she was born.

[book_worm]

10. Good analysis--on the other hand if we had won Michigan

the race might have been over sooner as well.