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Curious (Original Post) Matilda Jun 2017 OP
A number of things, some of which I've talked about here before. Denzil_DC Jun 2017 #1
Thanks for the explanation. Matilda Jun 2017 #3
There are SNP MPs I'm very sad to see go. Denzil_DC Jun 2017 #4
A bit more context as we now have the final results for Scotland: Denzil_DC Jun 2017 #2

Denzil_DC

(7,241 posts)
1. A number of things, some of which I've talked about here before.
Fri Jun 9, 2017, 01:09 AM
Jun 2017

It looks like they'll end up with 34, down from 56 - still by far the largest Westminster party in Scotland and the third largest party in the UK.

Turnout was low in places. The SNP vote in particular failed to turn out. That more than absolute gains by the other parties accounts for some of the losses.

Brexit isn't a cut and dried issue in Scotland. Nationwide, a substantial majority voted Remain, but there are pockets, especially the rural northeast, where Leave prevailed, and that's where some of the more telling losses (Angus Robertson, Alex Salmond) occurred. Nor are all previous SNP voters (and hence presumably independence supporters) Remainers, so given the SNP's ardent stance on the EU, that may have depressed turnout.

There was also a lot of potential for anti-SNP tactical voting between the broadly unionist parties. In Scotland, Labour, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are all dead set against another independence vote, and made that the main plank of their campaigns. And having won the unbelievable (and probably unrepeatable) 56 out of 59 seats in the last general election, the SNP was the party to beat. Scottish Labour's leader Kezia Dugdale even went as far as to suggest Labour supporters should vote for Conservatives in seats where the Tories could beat the SNP. Ironically (assuming anybody listens to her, which is debatable), she may have bolstered the Tories' chances of squeaking some sort of working majority at Westminster.

The conduct of the election and the level of debate was appalling.

We have our own parliament in Scotland with power over certain issues (education, the NHS etc.). We had a Scottish election last year, after which the SNP and Greens allied to form an administration. The Scottish Parliament voted to pursue the option of a second independence referendum timed to coincide with whenever the final terms of Brexit are decided.

The opposition parties wouldn't accept that result, so they chose to make "stopping the SNP" their major campaigning plank. The upshot was that televised debates and much other media coverage fudged what were Scottish parliamentary issues and what were Westminster issues, adding to the confusion that people who don't pay close attention to politics already experience, and putting the SNP on the back foot as it had to defend its record in power at Holyrood rather than talk about the UK national election.

It looks like there was also a "Corbyn effect". Labour in Scotland lost a lot of votes to the SNP when it went too far towards the centre-right. Some of that vote may have "come home" tonight as Corbyn's agenda is more appealing, and in certain constituencies that may have swayed things. But it looks like it only amounts to seven Scottish seats for Labour, whereas the shenanigans I mentioned above mean the Tories will get 11 or 12 seats. And an added irony is that the Labour leadership in Scotland has not been pro-Corbyn at all. SNP MPs would make more natural allies for a would-be Corbyn administration than some of the more right-wing Labour MPs are likely to.

The Lib Dems also made gains in certain areas, but then rural Scotland used to be its heartland (including my own constituency), and there was that potential for tactical voting again.

We saw this play out in my constituency, Argyll & Bute. The SNP won it from the Lib Dems with a very healthy majority in the last election. This time, the Tories ran within 2,000 votes of the SNP's Brendan O'Hara (who I'm glad to say won), with the Lib Dems (whose candidate was the previous MP) relegated to a distant third, trailed by a thousand or so by Labour. It's pretty clear that Lib Dems voted tactically for the Tories.


Matilda

(6,384 posts)
3. Thanks for the explanation.
Fri Jun 9, 2017, 02:54 AM
Jun 2017

They still hold a good number of seats, but sad that tactical voting (we've seen that operate here in Oz, in Senate voting) has resulted in a bolster for May.

In some ways, I'm glad that May called this election, because I thought she was quite the wrong person to negotiate Brexit, and I would imagine there's a very good chance now that she won't have that job.

Denzil_DC

(7,241 posts)
4. There are SNP MPs I'm very sad to see go.
Fri Jun 9, 2017, 03:39 AM
Jun 2017

There are Tory (and some Labour and Lib Dem) MPs I'm very sorry to see taking seats in Scotland, but I think I'll be happy to trade all that for the spanner it's going to put in the brexit spokes if things pan out.

The fun thing is that it's highly likely there'll have to be another general election by the autumn.

It will be fought in Scotland with a large number of seats that will have changed party hands twice within two years or so, and some tiny majorities (the lowest is two!). And the next time, the real consequences of tactical voting will be clearer, not least for Labour voters, who now that their party may have a sniff at UK power, may be keener to treat the Tories as adversaries rather than allies in their vendetta against the SNP.

Denzil_DC

(7,241 posts)
2. A bit more context as we now have the final results for Scotland:
Fri Jun 9, 2017, 01:37 AM
Jun 2017

SNP 35

Conservatives 13

Labour 7

Lib Dems 4

The SNP's Stephen Gethins won North East Fife, the last seat to declare, by two votes!

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