How the Pa. electorate has changed since 2016 and what that means for 2020

[TexasTowelie]

Ever since the Keystone State was called for Donald Trump in the early morning hours after Election Day 2016, it’s been clear that the road to the White House in 2020 runs through Pennsylvania.

So how does today’s landscape compare to what it was then? To find out, I studied the county voter registration numbers from October 2016 to October 2019.

As you’ll see, every section of the commonwealth tells a unique story of the past three years.

A quick note: I explore Pennsylvania’s changing voter trends by tracking the gains one party accumulated in registrations over the other party. For example, R+500 means that the Republican Party gained a net 500 more registered voters in that county than the Democratic Party did over this time period, while D+500 indicates the opposite.

Read more: https://www.phillytrib.com/news/state_and_region/how-the-pa-electorate-has-changed-since-and-what-that/article_5fb115b5-b881-5c6f-95a4-63eff4b4dc4c.html

[FakeNoose]

1. Dems have large gains in a few counties

The Democratic voter registration drives have shown large gains in these counties: Allegheny, Bucks, Chester, Cumberland, Delaware, Lancaster, Montgomery and city of Philadelphia. Is this enough to offset the small Republican gains in other counties? I sure hope so. Go Pennsylvania Democrats, keep bringing in newly registered voters.

[evertonfc]

2. let me tell you something

When a Democrat loses PA and comes within 10k votes of losing MN- your campaign. pretty much sucked. Period. If PA becomes competitive going forward, we are in big trouble

[sinkingfeeling]

3. Well, that's depressing.

[Freddie]

4. PA is usually blue

Because the city people outvote the Alabama part of the state. That didn’t happen in 2016. We have to have a candidate with strong minority support.

[HockeyMom]

5. Redistricting

My area of Monroe was redistricted into a more Northern rural "Alabama part of state" but includes Scranton/Wilkes Barre. There is a fairly large percentage of Minority (Democrats?) and transplants from NJ and NY, and some from Philly. It is also considered a commuter area to NYC. Standing joke around here is where are you from? NJ or NY? People change their political views when they move?

It made a difference last election. Long standing incumbent Republican was soundly defeated by a virtually unknown Democrat. Major upset.

We have only lived in PA for two years. Retired and originally from NYC. Voted for first time in PA last November. Very long lines in a somewhat rural area, not a big city or suburb. The topic of conversation was not Governor or local candidates, but TRUMP. Very negative comments. Pleasantly surprised me, but maybe should not have given the demographics.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/21/17032936/pennsylvania-congressional-districts-2018

Edit: New voting law goes into effect in 2020. Voting machines must now have a paper trail. Thank you. Governor Wolf.

[Freddie]

6. Gov Wolf is a true treasure

Keeps our state from going off the RWNJ deep end. He would make a great running mate next year.

[DeminPennswoods]

7. This is more a realignment of voter with party affiliation

rather than some big change in voting pattern. In my western PA county, there are registered Dems who consistently vote Republican, but just have never bothered to change their formal registration. Beacause PA is a closed primary state, if you want a vote in the primary process as far as selecting candidates, you have to register with a party.

Another factor to consider is the age of the voter. There are lots of old folks in western PA, they are cranky and conservative and vote that way, but are also dying out.