Obama Will Win Re-Election with 500 Electoral Votes - Denis Campbell Interview

[MarkCharles]

"--Denis Campbell, editor-in-chief of UK Progressive Magazine, joins us to talk about seeing a path to 400 or even 500 electoral votes for President Barack Obama in the 2012 Presidential Election."

From Haley in South Carolina, to Sheriff Joe in Arizona, this outsider guy thinks Americans will finally wake up in the next year and vote AGAINST Republicans in incredible electoral vote numbers.

I'm not sure he's anywhere close to right about states like Texas and AZ or SC, but he's interesting to listen to, and nice to dream with.

[unblock]

1. i want what he's having!

i think obama's got a near lock on re-election, but the margin of victory will not be huge at all.

[AnOhioan]

2. Great satire....oh wait..he was serious?!? Wow

[MarkCharles]

4. Remember, he's not voting, he's just a British/American journalist.

Two of the worst predictors of the future, combined in one.

But what a great fantasy!

[ukprogressive]

20. I vote in every election and pay US taxes...

... for the record. (Get a lot of folks saying who are you to talk about us? Been abroad for 14-years.)

[TheWraith]

3. No. That's simply not plausible.

There are far too many states which will vote Republican unless their candidate craps his trousers on stage.

[stockholmer]

6. agreed

[rocktivity]

7. While 500 votes does seem unrealistic, 400 certainly isn't

Last edited Thu Dec 22, 2011, 10:07 PM - Edit history (2)

Especially if the Rethugs continue to do the next best thing to crapping in public and expecting people outside their base to love them for it. All Obama has to do is "rinse and repeat" the way he handled the payroll tax cut through next year, and he'll convince enough new, young, Western, moderate, and independent voters that he's the lessor of two evils.


rocktivity

[Pab Sungenis]

9. The absolute best case scenario I see for him is 374

and even that seems unlikely. To win 500 votes he'd have to win every state except Texas, which we know he's going to lose. Hell, he'd probably carry Alabama before he carried Texas.

The most likely scenario I see has Obama winning with 290 electoral votes. He loses the Southern States (except Florida) that he carried in 2012, Indiana, Ohio, New Hampshire, Missouri, and the loose vote in Nebraska.

[rocktivity]

10. Well, I DID say

rocktivity

[Pab Sungenis]

13. Yes you did.

Just running some numbers for myself.

Also, we're still 10 months out from the election. A lot can change in that time. For all we know the commentator could be right and backlash against people like Nikki Haley could energize Democrats and discourage Republicans in places like South Carolina. You never know. Maybe 400 EV is a distant possibility.

[Tx4obama]

12. See comment #11 :) n/t

[TheWraith]

18. 400 isn't impossible, but I think it's highly implausible.

I think that unless the Republican implodes--or they nominate a total fucking psychiatric case--chances are the "ceiling" is something like 375 under the best circumstances.

[totodeinhere]

5. Intrade has him at 51.9%

That scares me. They will be tempted to try to steal it if it's that close.

[liberal N proud]

8. Hope this vision is correct.

America needs to save itself from itself.

[Tx4obama]

11. Regarding Texas

Obama won ALL of our largest cities/counties in Texas in 2008 except for one.
Obama got more votes than McCain did in Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, El Paso, etc.
The only large city McCain got was Ft. Worth.

Texas to me seems to be more purple now than red

Take a look at Obama's 2008 'red' state margin percents on the chart on the link below (the last column on the Chart):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Presidential_Election#State_results

p.s. When looking at all the states on the Chart it shows that Obama's margin of loss in Texas was much less than in the majority of the other red states.

[AverageJoe90]

14. And maybe South Texas voters will boot out that vile scumbag Lamar Smith.....

...who was the brainchild for that horrible SOPA bill that seems to be hanging on in Congress.

[Douglas Carpenter]

15. if Ron Paul is the nominee - probably - but otherwise - not plausible

[DeathToTheOil]

16. THAT's a bit much

Right now, I have Obama winning with 304.

[MarkCharles]

17. Just let Boehner and all the stupid Republicans in the House keep screwing up

More and more little "black holes" they fall into with their absurd mismanagement of Congress.

Just let the evidence be overly obvious that they are so stupid they should never be trusted, let alone ever be re-elected.

[ukprogressive]

19. David is a great editor...

... he chose the headline I would have used to get viewers. Maybe I should explain what was missing in my 8 minutes. Then you can all have what I am smoking.

I'm a numbers/statistics geek. I look at all of those silly polls far from the grip of MSNBC or FOX 24/7/365 and Nate Silver is my hero. Party push polls are not worth the electrons they are printed upon. As I project against the calendar and likely events, David Plouffe is the man to watch. This White House suffered from a lack of message discipline for the 1st two years and let the Frank Luntz' of this world take it to them.

Now they are playing hardball and bringing knives to this knife fight. President Obama has had a bad summer in every year from '08-'11 yet comes out swinging when needed. He will have a very good summer of 2012 and with 84 Tea Party freshman will have long coat-tails.

If the GOP nominates Gingrich there will be Democratic Nixonian landslide of 500 EVs because President Obama will seem eminently sane compared to the GOP RWNJs. Come february they will make such a fuss over the renewal of the Payroll Tax and other issues that even without Texas, the president can improve upon his 365 EV win of '08.

He will issue indictments against bankers 1st Q '12, Occupy will be a huge factor at the GOP convention in Tampa and that convention could end up being a circular firing squad. When people start to pay attention, they will tune out the stupid amount of money being spent. Should Willard survive the barrage of Which Mitt adverts, he will be lucky to keep current red States red.

Add in a 3rd party challenge from Ron Paul or Donald Trump and only Romney/Gingrich lose support.

Remember how much we hated Bush? Bush Derangement Syndrome they called it? Obama Derangement Syndrome is 1,000x worse and here's the problem. It was not enough to be against W. You had to be FOR Kerry. And many could not be for him handing W (Ohio count aside) the victory.

Hating Obama is not good enough to win and thankfully the GOP is not learning this lesson. So I like my prediction with each passing day's headlines.

Thx Mark.

Denis

[MarkCharles]

21. Well, I am honored you responded to my thread !

I didn't realize you were a member at DU. I hope you are 100% correct!

I confess to my ignorance about your status and your extensive work.

Your "research", however, involves several imagined events in the future, "predictions"**, not really scientific, nor statistical in nature.

** "will issue indictments against bankers 1st Q '12, Occupy will be a huge factor at the GOP convention in Tampa and that convention could end up being a circular firing squad"

Again, predictions are not science, not even political science.

But I hope your predictions are 100% correct.